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The_Equalizer

Hang On To Your Hats...

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I'm giving up and becoming a traveling salesman. Like everyone else here, I've been hanging on and waiting for this mess to sort itself out. Instead, at least in my part of the world, it's doing completely the opposite. Beat this for madness:

Belfast Telegraph - Word of warning for all first-time buyers.

"A recent report by the Halifax confirmed this trend. It found that the average property price in Northern Ireland leapt from £129,554 in the last quarter of 2005 to £153,427 in the first quarter of this year."

"This was a remarkable 18.4% increase over three months - bigger than even the rises seen in the greater London area over an entire year."

Hang on folks, that's an average increase across the whole of Northern Ireland in one quarter of 18.4%. Ironically, the Belfast Telegraph contains the Povince’s main property rag that quite happily ramps prices.

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Are the rises in NI recorded in the stats that are release by the likes of Hometrack, Rightmove & RICS for the uk, I guess they must be.

Does that mean that with rises like this in one part, it must be off set by sharp falls elsewhere (or just small falll EVERYWHERE) to balance it out to the stats that are coming out ie. +1% or -1%.

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Ah the smell & feeling of spring, the flowers, the birds, the bounce......

Not really a bounce but a continuation of the upward mad trajectory. Those poor people enslaving themselves to the banks for the next 40 years! When that lot unwinds Ireland will face poverty for a generation and who will they blame I wonder? I find it amusing and at the same time tragic. To see them all jostling inside the EA offices with glazed eyes and trembling bodies while jungle music plays in the background for effect--the marketing people say a steady rhythmic beat can induce frenzy! It reminds me of the HPI just before the Great Crash in California--people were actually RUNNING to view new houses that were for sale to get a quick look before running back to the office to sign on the dotted line before the next one. That was my sell signal and I got out in April 1989 a few months before the bubble burst.

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Were you there RB?

Yup. Lived through 3 HPCs in California (and the Great Crash aftermath in the UK where I picked up a bargain in Surrey in 1991) although was too young during the first 2 to remember much other than my parents getting bargains at the time. I was there in the Great Crash of '89 and saw it coming with irrational buying and leveraging going on in a frenzied state. It seems that the frenzy is always the greatest before the crash as the rational buyers left the market long before. Like our market, the investors got out when the yields offset the risk factor. In California (the biggest boom and bust market in the US and an almost exact mirror of the UK in terms of debt ratios and timing of the crashes) the investors left in 2004 which was about 6 months before the peak. I am certain that few professional investors bought into the UK market in the last couple of years with yields so low and the threat of a correction wiping out any thoughts of capital gains. Its the old rule again: buy low but make sure you sell when the time comes--when it's high. Hang on too long and you lose.

IN my area we have a growing number of "no upward chain" sales which suggests that they are investment properties or wanna- be STRs who left it a bit late.

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Ah the smell & feeling of spring, the flowers, the birds, the bounce......

Ahha.. but don't forget that the land registry now shows more areas falling then rising..

But the few areas rising are looking to be enough to raise those interest rates..

Apart from captain "huge debt" this suits everyone..

you can have more growth with high IR's and low inflation..

that will show previous growth to morrons in debt..

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I'm giving up and becoming a traveling salesman. Like everyone else here, I've been hanging on and waiting for this mess to sort itself out. Instead, at least in my part of the world, it's doing completely the opposite. Beat this for madness:

Belfast Telegraph - Word of warning for all first-time buyers.

"A recent report by the Halifax confirmed this trend. It found that the average property price in Northern Ireland leapt from £129,554 in the last quarter of 2005 to £153,427 in the first quarter of this year."

"This was a remarkable 18.4% increase over three months - bigger than even the rises seen in the greater London area over an entire year."

Hang on folks, that's an average increase across the whole of Northern Ireland in one quarter of 18.4%. Ironically, the Belfast Telegraph contains the Povince’s main property rag that quite happily ramps prices.

Frightening stuff in a country that does not have an economy other than government jobs.

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Frightening stuff in a country that does not have an economy other than government jobs.

It's all rather strange. The Belfast Telegraph is ramping the whole thing like there's no tomorrow. Even the Editor's comment today is saying dive in head first. Comparisons are being made with Dublin. It seems to have escaped these journalists' notice that there's no comparison to be made. It's like comparing the economies of Manchester and London, except the whole of the Northern Irish economy is kept afloat by public sector jobs.

Moreover, the average salary is £22K. The bloke in the office next to me has taken on £170K mortgage (£900-ish per month) on a £25K salary. He has to get two people to share the house or, by his own admittance, is stuffed.

If you fancy a laugh, average house price £150K and here's what you can rent for £600/month:

£600/month or under

I'm off to have a brew and work out how I can spend my savings on something more sensible.

Edited by The_Equalizer

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It's all rather strange. The Belfast Telegraph is ramping the whole thing like there's no tomorrow. Even the Editor's comment today is saying dive in head first. Comparisons are being made with Dublin. It seems to have escaped these journalists' notice that there's no comparison to be made. It's like comparing the economies of Manchester and London, except the whole of the Northern Irish economy is kept afloat by public sector jobs.

Moreover, the average salary is £22K. The bloke in the office next to me has taken on £170K mortgage (£900-ish per month) on a £25K salary. He has to get two people to share the house or, by his own admittance, is stuffed.

If you fancy a laugh, average house price £150K and here's what you can rent for £600/month:

£600/month or under

I'm off to have a brew and work out how I can spend my savings on something more sensible.

When I think that I am renting a very nice 3 br house with conservatory and 1/3 acre garden in a secluded walled garden near Stratford for 750 a month it makes NI look insane. Its the frenzy that is keeping the people in a hyped up mode. Can't blame the VIs for goading the people to buy as its get rich quick for tomorrow will be back to the old NI.

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It's all rather strange. The Belfast Telegraph is ramping the whole thing like there's no tomorrow. Even the Editor's comment today is saying dive in head first. Comparisons are being made with Dublin. It seems to have escaped these journalists' notice that there's no comparison to be made. It's like comparing the economies of Manchester and London, except the whole of the Northern Irish economy is kept afloat by public sector jobs.

Moreover, the average salary is £22K. The bloke in the office next to me has taken on £170K mortgage (£900-ish per month) on a £25K salary. He has to get two people to share the house or, by his own admittance, is stuffed.

If you fancy a laugh, average house price £150K and here's what you can rent for £600/month:

£600/month or under

I'm off to have a brew and work out how I can spend my savings on something more sensible.

Yes, great rental bargains as every man and his dog piles into BTL. Personally, I think they are economically naive due to the fact that NI is a small backwater that has been largely disconnected from globalisation.

I know some people from NI - very relaxed, genuine people, but they live in a little bubble cut off from the rest of the world and economic reality.

They will feel the full force of globalisation as it wreaks havoc on the insane bubble that is developing.

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I suspect that as IRs rise in the 26co's, investment will head North. God knows why - like Wales, an economic basket case and all that delightful sectarianism too. If NI had managed to transform itself into an economic powerhouse that didn't rely on public sector spending, that'd be OK. What a joke! Investors are relying on ever-rising prices as yields are dire.

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thing about the paddys though is they just dont care. When it all goes t1ts up, yeah, they will all be surprised for a while ("Oi didnt see dat one cummin, Mick"... "Sweet bejayzuz, neider did oi, Murphy")

And then they will just hand back the keys, and go work cash in hand as taxi drivers etc. And it's the poor sodding SAVERS who end up with the can...

:-)

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thing about the paddys though is they just dont care. When it all goes t1ts up, yeah, they will all be surprised for a while ("Oi didnt see dat one cummin, Mick"... "Sweet bejayzuz, neider did oi, Murphy")

And then they will just hand back the keys, and go work cash in hand as taxi drivers etc. And it's the poor sodding SAVERS who end up with the can...

:-)

No need to be a complete f*cking twit. :rolleyes:

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thing about the paddys though is they just dont care. When it all goes t1ts up, yeah, they will all be surprised for a while ("Oi didnt see dat one cummin, Mick"... "Sweet bejayzuz, neider did oi, Murphy")

And then they will just hand back the keys, and go work cash in hand as taxi drivers etc. And it's the poor sodding SAVERS who end up with the can...

:-)

It's part of the UK Enoch old fruit, and please keep it.

That aside it just goes to show how important yield is, the true measure of value. Yield is begot by rent, rent by income, income by productivity etc.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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