Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
dog

Peak House Prices

Recommended Posts

There seems to be a sublime confidence with home owners that property prices will always recover and go on to find new highs. This has happened in the past but will it happen again?

House prices have now moved miles ahead of both construction costs and average land values. The edifice of over priced houses has been sustained by vested interests and outdated planning laws (which make building land so much more valuable than agricultural land).

Planning laws could change overnight if the political was there. So far, governments of both persuasions have used house bubbles to win votes. The current housing bubble however is starting to look like a vote loser because it has priced so many people out of the market.

The government will have to change planning laws at some point and there are signs that they already have this in mind. The consultations on a land development tax must be a sure sign of change in the wind.

If the planning laws change, the value of building land will fall steadily. Perhaps we will never see house prices this high again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be a sublime confidence with home owners that property prices will always recover and go on to find new highs. This has happened in the past but will it happen again?

House prices have now moved miles ahead of both construction costs and average land values. The edifice of over priced houses has been sustained by vested interests and outdated planning laws (which make building land so much more valuable than agricultural land).

Planning laws could change overnight if the political was there. So far, governments of both persuasions have used house bubbles to win votes. The current housing bubble however is starting to look like a vote loser because it has priced so many people out of the market.

The government will have to change planning laws at some point and there are signs that they already have this in mind. The consultations on a land development tax must be a sure sign of change in the wind.

If the planning laws change, the value of building land will fall steadily. Perhaps we will never see house prices this high again.

I have thought this myself on occasion.

But is the political will ever going to be there?

Will the politicians not just make sure that any land available is sold by their rich land owning friends at nosebleed prices?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guy_Montag

I have thought this myself on occasion.

But is the political will ever going to be there?

Will the politicians not just make sure that any land available is sold by their rich land owning friends at nosebleed prices?

Sooner or later people will just start buying land & building houses. A few people have pulled this off (mostly gypsies), but I'm keeping an eye out for suitable land at a reasonable price. Even if I buy a house during "the great crash", I might still try to find a nice acre or two so I can build my retirement home there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Food for thought.

Total UK land area = 241,950 sq kilometres

of which irrigated or arrable = 23.25%

Uk population (est July 2006) = 60,609,153

Irrigated or arrable land per person = .0009 sq kilometres each

or 928 sq metres per person

So everyone should own a nice plot of land aprox 30m x 30m, which is roughly 1 acre per four people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I personally can t see this government changing the restrictive planning laws or for that matter easing demand by building social housing. This Government s core voters are made up of BTLers and people who have made a killing on the property market and a restrictive planning policy suits them just fine.This Government has abandoned young people in favour of the elderley through its housing policy.The housing boom has created the biggest redistriution of wealth from the young to the old and from the poor to the rich in the Nations history.Forget income distribution which has narrowed I m talking assets here.The over 45s now control eighty percent of the nations wealth the highest in history.What do the Government do, not build houses like in the 1950s but triple the NHS budget to £1500 per capita again a move that benefits the old.Speaking as an oldie who has benefited from the boom I can t understand why young people accept the situation lying down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Food for thought.

Total UK land area = 241,950 sq kilometres

of which irrigated or arrable = 23.25%

Uk population (est July 2006) = 60,609,153

Irrigated or arrable land per person = .0009 sq kilometres each

or 928 sq metres per person

So everyone should own a nice plot of land aprox 30m x 30m, which is roughly 1 acre per four people.

Land is not the only issue. For example, a house can be sited on a 1/4 acre plot without any problem. If you try to build a block of 10 luxury flats on the same site however, the planning authorities get much more snippy. Why is this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sooner or later people will just start buying land & building houses.

That's my plan. Planning regulations are not law, they are guidlines. You can legally build a house wherever you want. They might just ask you to take it down again!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's my plan. Planning regulations are not law, they are guidlines. You can legally build a house wherever you want. They might just ask you to take it down again!

And what happens if you refuse to take it down? Do they get a court order to make you do it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be a sublime confidence with home owners that property prices will always recover and go on to find new highs. This has happened in the past but will it happen again?

House prices have now moved miles ahead of both construction costs and average land values. The edifice of over priced houses has been sustained by vested interests and outdated planning laws (which make building land so much more valuable than agricultural land).

Planning laws could change overnight if the political was there. So far, governments of both persuasions have used house bubbles to win votes. The current housing bubble however is starting to look like a vote loser because it has priced so many people out of the market.

The government will have to change planning laws at some point and there are signs that they already have this in mind. The consultations on a land development tax must be a sure sign of change in the wind.

If the planning laws change, the value of building land will fall steadily. Perhaps we will never see house prices this high again.

Spot on. The NIMBY vote is dead in the long run people need a decent place to live and plenty of land is there for the taking. The landowners want to sell it, the builders want to develop it into houses, and the public want the houses. It is common sense that the deadlock must be broken at some point soon. It is not just the government who are saying this, all the main parties are now making serious noises about planning reform. Once planning's been reformed there'll be no going back to the crazy system of today.

Then what for the UK property bulls?

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be a sublime confidence with home owners that property prices will always recover and go on to find new highs. This has happened in the past but will it happen again?

House prices have now moved miles ahead of both construction costs and average land values. The edifice of over priced houses has been sustained by vested interests and outdated planning laws (which make building land so much more valuable than agricultural land).

Planning laws could change overnight if the political was there. So far, governments of both persuasions have used house bubbles to win votes. The current housing bubble however is starting to look like a vote loser because it has priced so many people out of the market.

The government will have to change planning laws at some point and there are signs that they already have this in mind. The consultations on a land development tax must be a sure sign of change in the wind.

If the planning laws change, the value of building land will fall steadily. Perhaps we will never see house prices this high again.

I think that once the need for close proximity to place of work is removed house prices wil collapse in all developed nations.. And unlike planning permission this will probably not be under the control of any one government.. I cant wait.. Probably another 30 years..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that once the need for close proximity to place of work is removed house prices wil collapse in all developed nations..

Wouldn't that increase demand for property in the more desirable areas, eg the Lake District?

Demand may collapse in many areas, but not all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be a sublime confidence with home owners that property prices will always recover and go on to find new highs. This has happened in the past but will it happen again?

House prices have now moved miles ahead of both construction costs and average land values. The edifice of over priced houses has been sustained by vested interests and outdated planning laws (which make building land so much more valuable than agricultural land).

Planning laws could change overnight if the political was there. So far, governments of both persuasions have used house bubbles to win votes. The current housing bubble however is starting to look like a vote loser because it has priced so many people out of the market.

The government will have to change planning laws at some point and there are signs that they already have this in mind. The consultations on a land development tax must be a sure sign of change in the wind.

If the planning laws change, the value of building land will fall steadily. Perhaps we will never see house prices this high again.

I kind of wish for the planning laws to be changed but I know damn well that they will only be changed half heartedly and possibly over a very long period of time.

I just can’t imagine a government bankrupting the majority of its population by releasing building land quickly. I can believe they would release it gradually over many years so as to maintain current house prices roughly. Also tipping off close friends as to which areas might be a good place to buy up big plots of land before changing its permission. Oh, I am sceptical aren’t I ?

If a future government does decide to release land on a massive scale I think this is the only way to cap house prices and totally stop the boom and bust we get now. Why ? Well I think it will be self regulating, no contractor is going to build more houses than they can sell so houses will never be artificially kept high because someone will simply build their own. The good old “supply and demand” problem will be removed.

Great idea but because it is a great idea no government will do it whichever side left or right. Shame really.

I think that once the need for close proximity to place of work is removed house prices wil collapse in all developed nations.

:D Yeah right like this affects you, don’t you just get your chauffer to drive you ? :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Food for thought.

Total UK land area = 241,950 sq kilometres

of which irrigated or arrable = 23.25%

Uk population (est July 2006) = 60,609,153

Irrigated or arrable land per person = .0009 sq kilometres each

or 928 sq metres per person

So everyone should own a nice plot of land aprox 30m x 30m, which is roughly 1 acre per four people.

That's great, but what happens if my quarter acre turns out to be in the North of Scotland? I'll have an awful time trying to get back to London to work in the morning. :(

The problem isn't so much the lack of land, as the concentration in the South East. Likewise, house prices - I could find a large affordable home in the far north, but the commute might be a problem

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's great, but what happens if my quarter acre turns out to be in the North of Scotland? I'll have an awful time trying to get back to London to work in the morning. :(

The problem isn't so much the lack of land, as the concentration in the South East. Likewise, house prices - I could find a large affordable home in the far north, but the commute might be a problem

People from London are excluded from the shareout :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.