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If We Start The Downwards Cycle Now When Will The Next Up Cycle Be

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I would be interested to know when the next up cycle will be and when we will get back to these prices.

5 years

10 years

20 years

40 years

never?

One of common excuses for not worrying about a house price crash is that prices will eventually recover.

Can anyone using historical facts etc. work out when we will get back to these prices if we ever do.

I believe it could actually be something like 40 years, or more, but I haven't done the maths. I guess the way to work it out is if houses stay at say 4.5 times salary for x years.

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I would be interested to know when the next up cycle will be and when we will get back to these prices.

5 years

10 years

20 years

40 years

never?

One of common excuses for not worrying about a house price crash is that prices will eventually recover.

Can anyone using historical facts etc. work out when we will get back to these prices if we ever do.

I believe it could actually be something like 40 years, or more, but I haven't done the maths. I guess the way to work it out is if houses stay at say 4.5 times salary for x years.

The Great Crash saw prices begin to go down in 1989 and rise again starting in about 1996. 7 years. If history is anything to go by the decline is short, sharp and violent followed by a longer period of slight falls and eventual plateau. Typical of all boom & bust items whether they are houses or other commodities.

This next crash may be a little more violent than the last due to the affordability records and sheer level of debt involved. That is no indicator though of the duration of falling prices as the next short, sharp and violent fall may be deeper than in the Great Crash with a consequentialy short period of plateau as equilibrium is regained.

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The Great Crash saw prices begin to go down in 1989 and rise again starting in about 1996. 7 years. If history is anything to go by the decline is short, sharp and violent followed by a longer period of slight falls and eventual plateau. Typical of all boom & bust items whether they are houses or other commodities.

This next crash may be a little more violent than the last due to the affordability records and sheer level of debt involved. That is no indicator though of the duration of falling prices as the next short, sharp and violent fall may be deeper than in the Great Crash with a consequentialy short period of plateau as equilibrium is regained.

So we probably need to factor in about a 7 year plato in flat prices. Then we could put in some inflationary rises etc.

Does this flat period accelerate the up cycle as towards the end houses get undervalued, therefore the initial kick upwards and turn in sentimant could cause a rapid rise that people may feel is the start of something bigger.

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The boom-bust cycle of the past has now been replaced by a more stable economy which means that there is not going to be crash in property prices in the foreseeable future and so to answer to your question as to when will the next upturn occur well its occurring right now as house prices are now starting to surge again.

Don't listen to the doom-mongers. They are just trying to drag you down with them to the gutter where they belong.

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The boom-bust cycle of the past is as strong as ever, despite the illusion of a 'stable economy' which means that there is going to be crash in property prices in the near future and so to answer to your question as to when will the next upturn occur well iin about 9 years as house prices may start to surge again after almost a decade of falls.

Don't listen to the doom-mongers. They are just trying to drag you down with them to the gutter where they belong. Anyone who claims property 'always goes up' or 'its different this time' is, by definition, a 'doom mongerer', because what they are saying for anyone under 50 is - "you are fooked".

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The boom-bust cycle of the past has now been replaced by a more stable economy which means that there is not going to be crash in property prices in the foreseeable future and so to answer to your question as to when will the next upturn occur well its occurring right now as house prices are now starting to surge again.

Don't listen to the doom-mongers. They are just trying to drag you down with them to the gutter where they belong.

Are you Gordon Brown? Tw4t. :blink:

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The boom-bust cycle of the past has now been replaced by a more stable economy which means that there is not going to be crash in property prices in the foreseeable future and so to answer to your question as to when will the next upturn occur well its occurring right now as house prices are now starting to surge again.

Don't listen to the doom-mongers. They are just trying to drag you down with them to the gutter where they belong.

I decided that we are definitely heading for a crash, purely on the numbers. Ignoring all past data and comment, I had decided that the houseing market was doomed well before I found this site. If our economy is stable and house prices continue to go up at the average rate it has been increasing in the last few years then no one will be able to afford houses. I should know I would be a FTB I am well educated and well paid and come from a reasonably wealthy background, I also have a partner in the same state, and still we would be stretching ourselves to buy in this market, if I am priced out what about the 95% of people who earn less than me and my partner and have less money for a deposit. Also new houses are being built at a faster rate than our population is growing. Credit will have to increase to levels beyond what people can realisticly pay back in their lifetime. House prices may survive a little longer, certainly if interest rates go down. Unfortunately inflation will go up as interest rates go down and it doesn't take long before the economy is unworkable. If you then go build on the historic and current information onto the numbers the possibility of house prices continue to rise or even staying still gets more and more ridiculous. Interest rates are widely accepted to be going up this year. Yes maybe only 0.25% but that is a proportional change of about 5% it will hit alot of people at the extremes of borrowing. Lots of people selling and not many people buying equals prices going down. Speculative buyers will sell if house prices go down adding to the problem. I know a fair amount about control systems, it is impossible to make the economy stable as the feedback lags the input by far too much, in some cases the feedback system is a complex system in itself, we might have a better idea about how it works than we did but we can't even simulate it in the broad let alone detail. Your assumption that we have now found some magical way of keeping it stable is therefore completely ridiculous.

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The boom-bust cycle of the past has now been replaced by a more stable economy which means that there is not going to be crash in property prices in the foreseeable future and so to answer to your question as to when will the next upturn occur well its occurring right now as house prices are now starting to surge again.

Don't listen to the doom-mongers. They are just trying to drag you down with them to the gutter where they belong.

Thats right. A 'stable' economy thats held together by debt and the consumer.... what a kn0b !

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This next crash may be a little more violent than the last due to the affordability records and sheer level of debt involved.

Oh please be right, please please!

I've readjusted my timeframe to allow for up to 8 years from now for the market to bottom out, which would mean that it would start heading up again ooh far too far in the future to even think about. Christ. :(

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I know a fair amount about control systems, it is impossible to make the economy stable as the feedback lags the input by far too much, in some cases the feedback system is a complex system in itself, we might have a better idea about how it works than we did but we can't even simulate it in the broad let alone detail.

Go on, I'm sure you could have a good crack at designing a control system that actually includes the major costs of living in the inflation index, then you might be able to nip asset bubbles in the bud.

Money has been too cheap for the last 5 years, as your control system would verify.

JY

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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