R I C S : Good News For Btlers As Immigrants Raise Yields

[Realistbear]

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060525/323/gcnj0.html

Friday May 26, 12:16 AM

Migrant labour helps push UK housing rental gains to near 5-year highs - RICS

LONDON (AFX) - Incoming migrant labour were among the reasons propelling UK residential rental price

gains to highs not seen in nearly 5 years

in the three months to April, a key lettings survey found.

'Economic growth, rising employment and inward migration from EU accession countries have increased upward pressure on rents. Surveyors are confident the upward trend will be sustained in the next quarter,' the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.

The news is not so good for first time buyers with house prices continuing to rise and the alternative of renting steadily becoming more expensive,' said RICS spokesperson, Jeremy Leaf

.

Odd that RICS say the opposite to the earlier report that found yields were decreasing in London more than in the provinces. This "news release" from RICS might be designed to stimulate the dying housing market. They may be correct in relation to incoming migration but employment and economic growth are both slowing and no longer underpin inflation in house prices.

RICS apparent delight in the news that FTBs and renters are being priced out may work against them in the long run if Gordon decides that too many incoming workers will deprive those who are already here of jobs and a place to live? When a housing shortage is known by the government to exist does it make sense to allow unlimited immigration? Or should the government say we simply cannot handle anymore? This will kill Gordon's "Miracle Economy" but it may be the sacrifice he will have to make to avoid social pressures that none of us want to see.

Edited May 26, 2006 by Realistbear

[Justice]

Importing immigrants is a bit like importing goods as much of the money will be sent or spend back at home where these immigrants have come from so effectively the UK will continue to import more than it exports and all we will be left with as the economy goes bang is those that come here to take the pi$$ and grab handouts.

Polish worker are amongst the few that make a contribution towards the country but will this contribution cover the cost of the thousands of gipsies heading our way from Romania.

As for landlords, they may find that these people won’t give a dam what they do to the property and it’s not hard to see a case where all rents received are spend repairing the damage after these people leave, good luck to them I say

[Time to raise the rents.]

Whilst I would never let my places to these people for fear of them having 10 of their mates move in & take over the place, I'm quite happy that the good tenants are being squeezed into better areas like mine as these people take up the slack in worse areas that tend to have cheaper rents.

TTRTR me thinks.

[Realistbear]

Whilst I would never let my places to these people for fear of them having 10 of their mates move in & take over the place, I'm quite happy that the good tenants are being squeezed into better areas like mine as these people take up the slack in worse areas that tend to have cheaper rents.

TTRTR me thinks.

Might not be such a bad idea. The HPI-MEW culture is threatening to undermine social stability in the UK and the faster the Miracle Economy is brought down the better. I am in contact with my MP and am seeing if the Tories are willing to take the problem on as one of the central issues for the next election. Doing something about immigration when it threatens the internal stability of a country by forcing up house prices and rents is not a racial issue. If nothing is done we will see a further drift to the right and the ascendancy of the BNP. We should not underestimate the level of anger over housing issues in this country.

[Time to raise the rents.]

Does that mean you are now predicting HPI & rent rises RB?

[Flat Bear]

Unfortunately this is a fact and will take house prices and rents higher. This will get worse as the number of immigrants increase and if the governments figures for influx is correct (London to grow by a city the size of Leeds within a few years) house prices and rents will increase for some time irrespective of IR or general economic outlook. Infastructure would also come under extreme pressure and there would be growing civil unrest.

At some point, I am sure, the politicians will come to their senses and all immigration will be stopped and dependant on how long and big the problem is allowed to get possible forced repatriations.

I believe this is the only reason demand is still outstripping supply and is the only "weapon" left in Gordon's arsenal to prop up the housing market and keep wage inflation down.

TTRTR could be proved right after all

Edited May 26, 2006 by Flat Bear

[zag2me]

Inmigration is one of the things that has caused house prices to not crash. Thats whats different this time round. You cant go into a mcdonalds these days without being greated by a nice looking eastern european girl.

[Realistbear]

Does that mean you are now predicting HPI & rent rises RB?

No, we have already had those. But the process can be helped along if we can add some social unrest caused by rising rents and pricing out indigenous people to make room for new arrivals willing to pay higher rents by doubling up on occupancy. In other words, add fuel to the fire to assist it in burning up and self destructing.

If existing UK residents can't pay the rent but doubling up immigrants can there will be a problem for Gordon Brown: where does he house the growing numbers of homeless? How will he deal with the unemployed whose jobs are taken by the rising numbers of often better qualified Germans, Austrians, Croats, Bratislavians etc. that are coming in? Some say Gordon is already planning rent controls and today's ramp by the RICS may hurry such a program along as Gordon is, after all, a socialist albeit of the champage variety.

Thus, better to double the rents and bring the problems to a quick head. Pop the bubble and return to equilibrium sooner rather than later. Then introduce anti-boom & bust measures such as good old fashioned lending standards based on income multiples that are not irrationally exhuberant.

[Time to raise the rents.]

I think you are predicting it but are reluctant to admit it.

RB turns bull, what a shock!

[Realistbear]

I think you are predicting it but are reluctant to admit it.

RB turns bull, what a shock!

We are talking short term rent rises if Gordon's plan comes to fruition. But in the real world employment continues to be the central problem for HPI and MEW (IR hikes are a side issue but perhaps more damaging to HPI and MEW than job losses on their own). THis is why prices continue to fall in my area along with softer rents (ODPM reports 8.2% drops for my area). If employment continues to soften it seems that Gordon's mass immigration policy will be of no avail as there will be no jobs for the new arrivals to take.

Thus, in theory higher immigration will raise rents. However in the real world the more homlessness among FTBs the more the social unrest that will force the government to bring back rent controls. So its a heads Bears win and tails Bulls lose situation. Too much immigration brings in rent controls and lower rents, not enough immigration and supply reduces rents.

Its time to divest interest rate sensitive assets this late in the cyle in any event.

[Time to raise the rents.]

What's the short term prognosis then? To 2012 for London IMO.

[Flat Bear]

Inmigration is one of the things that has caused house prices to not crash. Thats whats different this time round. You cant go into a mcdonalds these days without being greated by a nice looking eastern european girl.

I agree, it has been the major factor in the supply/demand balance, and could be an even bigger factor if higher volumes enter as expected.

[Realistbear]

What's the short term prognosis then? To 2012 for London IMO.

6 months. By that time IR increases, lower employment, stagnating GDP and confidence drops will be coming to a head. Affordability went out of the window two or three years ago and the multiples allowed by lenders today beggar belief. The up cycle has been running since 1996 which is a long span for inflation to ride unchecked. House prices are falling worldwide now and they are doing so in the UK in certain areas. I do not think Gordon will get away with his mass immigration to keep the "Miracle Economy" alive program as the government are aware of the growing ill will of the electrorate as evidenced by their recent trouncing. If they keep going down the path that brought them electoral defeat at the local level they are sealing their fate at the national level.

The "Miracle Economy" is essentially dead. The debt and hardship that is now coming to fruition is the price we have all had to pay.

Its bad in the US with adjustable mortgages returning to equilibrium--I think we are just 6 months behind their curve:

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/stori...M.211f32b4.html

Nationally, an estimated $2 trillion worth of adjustable-rate loans will reset this year and next, which will double the mortgage payments of 1.5 million families, said Brian Montgomery, Federal Housing Administration commissioner and assistant secretary of housing.

Don't forget in the UK nearly all loans are short term fixed ofr adustable and those low intro rates are all ending just as they are over in the Colony.

Edited May 26, 2006 by Realistbear

[oracle]

not for long!!!!

....extra bodies need housing,fine.

existing bodies having less capital to spend on life,and that INCLUDES choice of domicile.....BIG problem for BTL.

...even at £60p.w many average earners are having trouble once other staples like food,travel to work and utilities are taken into account.

...and the single guy renting the £500pcm flat is probably now looking at downsizing or sharing to split costs.

[frugalista]

Polish worker are amongst the few that make a contribution towards the country but will this contribution cover the cost of the thousands of gipsies heading our way from Romania.

How did you make up your mind that Poles are hard workers and gypsies are theiving shirkers?

frugalista

[Righteous]

Hi Realistbear

Excellent post . So there does seem to be a link between immigration and house prices after all.

Importing immigrants is a bit like importing goods as much of the money will be sent or spend back at home where these immigrants have come from so effectively the UK will continue to import more than it exports and all we will be left with as the economy goes bang is those that come here to take the pi$$ and grab handouts.

True, but I don’t think the sheeple will understand that until it’s too late. Oh and don’t bother to try and warn everyone as you will undoubtedly be branded a racist before you get your first sentence out. Wait until it goes tits up and then at least you can say “I told you so”.

How did you make up your mind that Poles are hard workers and gypsies are theiving shirkers?

Judging by the text you quoted I don’t believe Justice actually said that. Can you quote where he said “thieving shirkers” on this thread please ?

[Lesley]

Inmigration is one of the things that has caused house prices to not crash. Thats whats different this time round. You cant go into a mcdonalds these days without being greated by a nice looking eastern european girl.

Is there something wrong with being greated with a nice eastern earopean girl??

Unfortunately this is a fact and will take house prices and rents higher. This will get worse as the number of immigrants increase and if the governments figures for influx is correct (London to grow by a city the size of Leeds within a few years) house prices and rents will increase for some time irrespective of IR or general economic outlook. Infastructure would also come under extreme pressure and there would be growing civil unrest.

Do you have evidence to back up your argument on immigration or is this just speculation??

[Guest]

The immigrants will get the shock of their lives in five years time when they discover that they needn't have comitted to a 200,000 quid flat in the UK when they can then earn the same back home! And there's no chavs in Bulgaria because you can shoot them all DEAD with the GUNS that you can't bring into the hotel.

[brainclamp]

Hmm... whats your real political choice if you don't approve of this?

None.

The conservatives have just sent the following through my door ;

Conservative Party 'Donor Clubs'. I am invited to the 'Property forum' - for key players within the property industry to meet shadow ministers over breakfast, discuss property issues and learn about related policies. Cost - £5000.

There is no mainstream choice politically. The reason is the mainstream parties would be bankrupt if they do not jump to the tune of the rich and implement the policies that make them rich! (and you poor)

[Guest]

I am rich brainclamp.

Very very rich.

[Flat Bear]

QUOTE BY LESLEY 11.20PM

Is there something wrong with being greated with a nice eastern earopean girl??

Unfortunately this is a fact and will take house prices and rents higher. This will get worse as the number of immigrants increase and if the governments figures for influx is correct (London to grow by a city the size of Leeds within a few years) house prices and rents will increase for some time irrespective of IR or general economic outlook. Infastructure would also come under extreme pressure and there would be growing civil unrest.

Do you have evidence to back up your argument on immigration or is this just speculation??

Sorry I thought everybody was aware of the latest house building plans and immigration projections by the ODPM (around 9.8million in greater London and home counties) There are numerous threads which refer to these figures

I have found one of the older references by the Mayor of London dept. way back in 2002 when projections were not so high. They were still using references to growth by the size of Leeds though.

The fact you were unaware of this is a major concern, as you have taken the time to read this thread and have made a number of posts. It should follow that a large proportion of the population are probably unaware as well. More prominance should be given to such information and definately more prime time news coverage.

Newsletter of the Mayor of London April 2002 Issue 5

LONDON’S GROWTH – UK’S BIGGEST REGIONAL ISSUE

London is growing at an unprecedented rate, making increased investment in the city’s infrastructure and public services vital. This is the key message in Planning for London’s Growth, a new Mayoral report which will underpin the London Plan – the Mayor’s Spatial Development Strategy.

The new population forecast outstrips all previous government projections. The capital’s population, which is currently just above 7.4 million, is projected to exceed 8.1 million by 2016 – the equivalent of London absorbing a city the size of Leeds every three to four years.

The population increase will be matched by a corresponding growth in employment – GLA projections indicate that half-a-million new jobs will be created in London by 2016 – provided that London can meet the increased demands that will be placed on its infrastructure and services, particularly office space, housing and transport. Helping to create the conditions for rapid job growth, while protecting London’s environment, will therefore be a key goal of the Mayor’s London Plan.

[frugalista]

Judging by the text you quoted I don’t believe Justice actually said that. Can you quote where he said “thieving shirkers” on this thread please ?

Well okay I exaggerated. But there was a clear statement that Poles contribute to the economy whereas gypsies represented a "cost" to the economy.

How does Justice know in advance whether someone is going to be a contributor or a cost just from their ethnicity?

frugalista