Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Geekusdeekus

Will A Crash Actually Happen?

Recommended Posts

I am currently renting, I refuse tobuy while prices are so ridiculous, I have been waiting for prices to drop for years now. People keep saying 'Don't buy yet, a crash is around the corner' but I've yet to see anything happen. I agree that all the conditions seem right, what is taking so damn long? lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am currently renting, I refuse tobuy while prices are so ridiculous, I have been waiting for prices to drop for years now. People keep saying 'Don't buy yet, a crash is around the corner' but I've yet to see anything happen. I agree that all the conditions seem right, what is taking so damn long? lol.

I am afraid that if you are waiting for house prices to drop - you have missed the boat.

Between 2004 and 2005, house prices fell for 16 consecutive months:

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/st...1599476,00.html

The Summer / Autumn of 2005 was the time to buy.

These graphs from the Nationwide and Halifax show this:

_41633742_house_prices_may06_203.gif

Since late 2005, house price inflation has taken off again.

I am not telling you this to brag about how I bought at the right time but I am telling you this so that you don't make the mistake of waiting any longer to buy a house.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MILLION DOLLAR MAN

Suggest you look at the graph again. It in no way shows that prices fell in 2004/05. Rather the rate of growth slowed.

mjd

Well firstly, I would refer you to the Hometrack report which shows that prices actually FELL for 16th months.

And then I would suggest that YOU look at the graph again. It is a graph of ANNUAL change, not month to month changes. Furthermore, we all know that the Nationwide and Halifax figures are exaggerated. It was always the Hometrack reports that the Bears counted upon.

Either way, the OVERALL PATTERN remains the same. Since this website started, the best time to buy was last year and a crash just isn't going to happen.

Edited by THE MILLION DOLLAR MAN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am afraid that if you are waiting for house prices to drop - you have missed the boat.

Between 2004 and 2005, house prices fell for 16 consecutive months:

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/st...1599476,00.html

The Summer / Autumn of 2005 was the time to buy.

These graphs from the Nationwide and Halifax show this:

_41633742_house_prices_may06_203.gif

Since late 2005, house price inflation has taken off again.

I am not telling you this to brag about how I bought at the right time but I am telling you this so that you don't make the mistake of waiting any longer to buy a house.

The best bit of that Guardian article is this: "Meanwhile, 24 counties saw no change in prices and 32 saw prices falls, with Wiltshire the worst hit at -0.5%."

PMSL! :lol::rolleyes:

Oooh, -0.5%, poor old Wiltshire! I dread to think what they'll be saying when the real crash happens and prices go -20%!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dread to think what they'll be saying when the real crash happens and prices go -20%!

They'll be saying nothing because the crash isn't happening!

And right now they are saying "isn't it jolly good that our house has started going up in value again after those beastly falls last year".

So, I had a 'choice' of paying either £150K then or £170K now...

That is NOT a choice for most FTB

Look, I hate it if people are GENUINELY priced out and that is why I would ban landlords and 2nd home ownership if I could. However, taking a more realistic approach - many mortgage lenders will lend over 4 times joint income and over 5 times single income. Combined with a really extreme and disciplined attemt to save for a deposit, would a house still be out of your reach?

My comments on this thread were once again directed at somebody on this site who says that "they refuse to buy" rather than they can't buy. If you genuinely CAN'T buy, then I have nothing but sympathy for you. But let me tell you this, you are not in the company of people in the same boat here on this website. Your compainions here are STRS and gold-investors.

Edited by THE MILLION DOLLAR MAN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They'll be saying nothing because the crash isn't happening!

Ok mate, whatever you say. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well firstly, I would refer you to the Hometrack report which shows that prices actually FELL for 16th months.

And then I would suggest that YOU look at the graph again. It is a graph of ANNUAL change, not month to month changes. Furthermore, we all know that the Nationwide and Halifax figures are exaggerated. It was always the Hometrack reports that the Bears counted upon.

Either way, the OVERALL PATTERN remains the same. Since this website started, the best time to buy was last year and a crash just isn't going to happen.

<YAWN>

No, suggest that you look at it again.

You said:

Between 2004 and 2005, house prices fell for 16 consecutive months:

The graph clearly shows that the rate of increase slowed, but that prices were still rising.

i.e. Prices did not fall for 16 consecutive months

</YAWN>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However, taking a more realistic approach - many mortgage lenders will lend over 4 times joint income and over 5 times single income. Combined with a really extreme and disciplined attemt to save for a deposit, would a house still be out of your reach?

With a 25 years fixed mortgage at 2%, no not at all :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<YAWN>

No, suggest that you look at it again.

You said:

Between 2004 and 2005, house prices fell for 16 consecutive months:

The graph clearly shows that the rate of increase slowed, but that prices were still rising.

i.e. Prices did not fall for 16 consecutive months

</YAWN>

That stament related to the web-link, not the graph.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am afraid that if you are waiting for house prices to drop - you have missed the boat.

The monkeys back and theres gonna be trouble

hey now, hey now the monkeys back!

Eh...Only now hes a bull!!??

After tricking us all by talking prices down....you bought a place.

Now youre talking prices up because......you want to sell, right.

Damn youre one clever monkey.

Or is he? My guess is that the owners need a few more bulls to keep the site alive...Monkey, Bruno...

Will zzg make a reappearance as a bull?

watch this space...(and the Alexa traffic, natch ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that all the conditions seem right, what is taking so damn long? lol.

OK dumbo HPC sheeple type, what do you mean the 'conditions seem right' ?

You have just answered your own question when you say'what is taking so damn long'

The conditions are NOT right for a HPC, thats why its taking so damn long !!

DO NOT BELIEVE the tripe that the desperados on here feed you - the conditions for a HPC are no where to be seen. The economy is doing fine - IRs are low and are going to stay low - wages are rising - for the vast majority of people houses are affordable. Once you understand these factors, then you will say 'ah, thats why its taking so long'.

If you are waiting for a HPC, may I suggest you take a slow walk around the planet - perhaps when you come back in 10 years something might have happened - but there again it might not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The crash is already happening, but it's never obvious until it's all over. Wait for next year and the introduction of HIPs - prices will drop like a stone!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK dumbo HPC sheeple type, what do you mean the 'conditions seem right' ?

You have just answered your own question when you say'what is taking so damn long'

The conditions are NOT right for a HPC, thats why its taking so damn long !!

DO NOT BELIEVE the tripe that the desperados on here feed you - the conditions for a HPC are no where to be seen. The economy is doing fine - IRs are low and are going to stay low - wages are rising - for the vast majority of people houses are affordable. Once you understand these factors, then you will say 'ah, thats why its taking so long'.

If you are waiting for a HPC, may I suggest you take a slow walk around the planet - perhaps when you come back in 10 years something might have happened - but there again it might not.

You've surpassed yourself again ImUpNorth! :blink:

You start your counter arguement constructively and then you discredit yourself with these statements!

the conditions for a HPC are no where to be seen. The economy is doing fine

I dont know if this is ignorance or denial? Look at this from yesterdays BBC website;

sentiment.jpg

IRs are low and are going to stay low

Over the past 25 years interest rates have been 8.88% AVERAGE! In the last 10 years this drops to 6.36%

Interest Rates below 6% are UNUSUALLY LOW. I use the word unusual because the low interest rates have cause a MASSIVE debt bubble which has slowed down our eceonomy. The only way to correct this is, is to stop people getting into more debt and start paying this money back.

There are NUMEROUS links I could post pointing to IR's rising. Its more or less a done deal - why dya think the SM is shitting itself now? The hint of Inflation and they all bail out. I would offer a bet the IR will NOT be going down, but you this corrupt government - anything is possible. :angry:

wages are rising

NO THEY'RE NOT!!!! Our good friend GB is seeing to that. We have our Polish friends coming in doing the jobs cheaper. Either drop to their wage or piss off and we'll get more Poles in. Only heard last night that there is a Polish guy in his place PRINTING. He only knows about 50 words!!!! All the workers are refusing to train him up - and quite right too!

for the vast majority of people houses are affordable.

Yet again - its a matter of opinion. I could affford to buy a NEW MINI but I wont becuase I perceive them to be overpriced. The fact I can afford it does not make it value-for-money.

You say the vast majority? Considering that over 70% of people are Home Owners - lets say 60% of them bought before 2000? These people have a LOT of equity in their properties. Which helps a lot. BUT a recent report stated that a lot are staying put!

These people make be in their 50's now and are used to having a mortgage of 60K. Its gonna cost them Double that to upgrade and only 15 years or so to pay it back. Yet again, in theory, they may be able to squeeze that, but give up a standard of living.

I certainly, at that age, would not give up a summer holiday for 15 years to get another house! I would stay put and enjoy life a bit - You only get 1 chance!

TB

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hehe, luv these threads...

The denial from some people while the country is slowly falling apart, and they think prices always go up!!

Welcome to the real world...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i

NO THEY'RE NOT!!!! Our good friend GB is seeing to that. We have our Polish friends coming in doing the jobs cheaper. Either drop to their wage or piss off and we'll get more Poles in. Only heard last night that there is a Polish guy in his place PRINTING. He only knows about 50 words!!!! All the workers are refusing to train him up - and quite right too!

TB

Those workers don't deserve a pay rise if they are behaving like that.

Maybe they should set up their own printing business as competition with a big sign up outside saying NO IMMIGRANT WORKERS ALLOWED.

You say the vast majority? Considering that over 70% of people are Home Owners - lets say 60% of them bought before 2000? These people have a LOT of equity in their properties. Which helps a lot. BUT a recent report stated that a lot are staying put!

These people make be in their 50's now and are used to having a mortgage of 60K. Its gonna cost them Double that to upgrade and only 15 years or so to pay it back. Yet again, in theory, they may be able to squeeze that, but give up a standard of living.

I certainly, at that age, would not give up a summer holiday for 15 years to get another house! I would stay put and enjoy life a bit - You only get 1 chance!

I'm sure I read a stat somewhere that said the average age for paying off the mortgage was now down to 48. This may be because of the cheap prices during the mid/late 1990s. I'd guess a lot of homeowners over 50 are already in the biggest property they ever need, with the mortgage paid off. Nothing to spend the money on but grandchildren and holidays!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the crash will probably come, but it will be the result of an unexpected event, such as the introduction of some legislation that has an knock-on effect on house prices, possibly combined with rising rates.

I would like to buy a house now, but IMO its too risky buying at present - if things turned sour, I could be shafted for many years to come. Playing the waiting game is no fun, but its the safer option. Im not prepared to gamble with such large sums of money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.