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H5n1 May Have Gone Human 2 Human

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The recent troubles of the Asian stock markets have been blamed on H5N1 and yet people in poor countries are viewed as being disposable so if even at this stage it can wipe 10% off share prices then just think what it will do to the western markets if it takes hold.

Would you catch a tube in London if people were starting to drop down dead, would you leave your front door unless the army (which it might) comes and drags you out to work and how long can Brown last without our taxes.

Personally I have suspect it had gone human to human a long time ago since a nurse caught it and she had not been around chickens but treating people who had contracted H5N1 and I also think that we have been kept in the dark whilst the authorities prepare battle plans and this explains why we had lot’s of outbreaks a few months ago in Europe and then it all went quiet. Did the ducks not like the wet weather or something !

CNN on HN51

“All eight cases were from the same family. Four members of the family have died from what health officials suspect could be bird flu, said WHO spokeswoman Sari Setiogi.”

You will find many more example on Google

Edited by Justice

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Would you catch a tube in London if people were starting to drop down dead, would you leave your front door unless the army (which it might) comes and drags you out to work and how long can Brown last without our taxes.

Quiet day in the old crack den is it?

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Well.. I have said before.

If a tiny little chicken sneazes and a human catches it...

1) The virus will begin to multiply (Thats how we get sick)... It will be present in most fluidish parts of our bodies.

2) A human will become a walking container of the virus.

3) Humans produce much much more bodily fluids than a chicken...

So.. if its the same virus jumping from a chicken to a human... surley at the volumes its produced

in a human you should be much more likley to catch it from a human to human link.

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Well.. I have said before.

If a tiny little chicken sneazes and a human catches it...

1) The virus will begin to multiply (Thats how we get sick)... It will be present in most fluidish parts of our bodies.

2) A human will become a walking container of the virus.

3) Humans produce much much more bodily fluids than a chicken...

So.. if its the same virus jumping from a chicken to a human... surley at the volumes its produced

in a human you should be much more likley to catch it from a human to human link.

Firstly it's chicken poo that transmits it... not chickens sneezing.

Secondly if your rather simplistic view of viri transmission were at all realistic we would have had an epidemic by now. We don't therefore H5N1 finds it hard to either develop in humans or transmit.

The one thing that no one spends much time explaining on the shock you telly box stories is that if H5N1 did mutate in a way facilitating human to human transmission it might just as easily lose some of it's potency in that mutation.

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I have heard what the non-vested-interest experts say & believe it. A terrible epidemic could happen any time. Govenments are right to plan for it. The chances that it will come from bird flu are small. Een if avian flu mutates to be easily transmissable human-to-human, it could well lose its potency in the process.

The reason this ever-present danger of a flu pandemic got pushed in the past couple of years at WHO, and conveneintly sold to the public through a bird flu scare, (rather than some other time) is that Donald Rumsfeld currently has a big stake in the manufacturers of Tamiflu. The chances of a flu pandemic are serious but no more or less than they were 10 years ago or in 10 years time. Nobody knows when & from where it will come, and bird flu is one of the thousands of possible sources.

I accept the bird flu is potentially a very serious issue for the poultry industry. Not for humans.

Edited by contrarian

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The recent troubles of the Asian stock markets have been blamed on H5N1 and yet people in poor countries are viewed as being disposable so if even at this stage it can wipe 10% off share prices then just think what it will do to the western markets if it takes hold.

You forgot to mention that weather reports pushed up oil futures yesterday, leading to a market rally.

You also forgot to mention that oil futures picked up yesterday leading to a market fall.

We have been, are and always will be manipulated by the media. Why come here and do their job for them?

Edited by Sledgehead

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The chances that it will come from bird flu are small. Een if avian flu mutates to be easily transmissable humjan-to-human, it could well lose its potency in the process.

I think the family members of the eight people who caught it would argue with you when you say “. Een if avian flu mutates to be easily transmissable humjan-to-human

Lets just say it’s a one in six chance that the grit will hit the fan this time then that makes it a much bigger danger to your life than smoking is .

how do you think H5N1 will go away now it's become endemic in the worlds wild population of birds and given that, how do you think humans will build up a resistance to the virus.

Sledgehead

You know me and you know i would hate to be playing into the hands or our masters, i could be but i don't think so.

Edited by Justice

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Check out - www.avianflutalk.com

Its already gone H2H. In fact I believe its gone H2H2H2h. !!

Alot of clusters in Indonesia at present. !

Lou

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Firstly it's chicken poo that transmits it... not chickens sneezing.

Secondly if your rather simplistic view of viri transmission were at all realistic we would have had an epidemic by now. We don't therefore H5N1 finds it hard to either develop in humans or transmit.

The one thing that no one spends much time explaining on the shock you telly box stories is that if H5N1 did mutate in a way facilitating human to human transmission it might just as easily lose some of it's potency in that mutation.

HPL

Where did you study epidaemiology?

IMO You are wrong and Coolaftershave is right although his/her explanation is a little simplistic

Viruses can be transmitted by the faecal oral route but flu' as it normally affects the respiratory sytem is more likely to be transmitted by aerosol (droplet) or contact

It depends where the reservior for the virus would be - I would guess with flu' it will be the lungs/respiratory system, but it could be the beak, feathers but unlikely to be the gut as the symptoms would be different

Viruses must have a living host - they can survive for outside one but only for short periods BTW when was the last time you ate chicken poo?

Everyone has lost the picture of Bird Flu' - it is sensational and scary news so the TV and papers report it when there is nothing else -

The things you need to remember about bird flu are:

H5N1 (or a similar virus) will develop into a human strain in the same way as sooner or later Earth will be struck by a giant meteorite - - we just don't know when (at least we will be able to see the meteorite coming)

It is right for Governement to make a contingency for it but all they can do at present is stockpile generic flu' vaccines - a specific vaccine cannot be developed until after the mutation has happened it can also apply emergency control orders to stop the movement of domestic birds (it can do nothing to prevent the movement of wild birds so this measure will not prevent but may protect the food chain -primarliy to protect workers in the poulrty industry- to some degree - you will be protected by cooking your chicken and eggs properly

What can you do personally - you don't need to do a lot - don't go kissing any wild birds or domestic fowl and keep yourself healthy so if (when) the epidemic comes (it may not be in your lifetime - it may be next month) your immune system will have a chance of fighting it off

And so endeth todays lesson on bird flu'

For more information check out the Institute of Food Science and Technology website

http://www.ifst.org/site/cms/contentviewar...asp?article=679

CS

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Doom, gloom, blah blah blah.

More will die in car crashes & other preventable accidents etc.

Couldn't agree more

But when posters state incorrect facts about my subject areas I feel necessary to correct them

Just as you do about Property investments etc.

CS

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WHO confirms H5N1 transmission human to human.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/index.html

"All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing."

In english, close human to human transmission confirmed, but in order not to panick the sheeple, we will be looking for a possible scapegoat....

Even more alarming there is no major mutation required, point mutation seems to have been enough. http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

:ph34r:

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I think the family members of the eight people who caught it would argue with you when you say “. Een if avian flu mutates to be easily transmissable humjan-to-human

They were all from the same family, and all lived on a poultry farm where they had been in close contact with chickens who had H5N1.

i.e. they all caught it from the chickens.

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HPL

Where did you study epidaemiology?

IMO You are wrong and Coolaftershave is right although his/her explanation is a little simplistic

Viruses can be transmitted by the faecal oral route but flu' as it normally affects the respiratory sytem is more likely to be transmitted by aerosol (droplet) or contact

It depends where the reservior for the virus would be - I would guess with flu' it will be the lungs/respiratory system, but it could be the beak, feathers but unlikely to be the gut as the symptoms would be different

Viruses must have a living host - they can survive for outside one but only for short periods BTW when was the last time you ate chicken poo?

Everyone has lost the picture of Bird Flu' - it is sensational and scary news so the TV and papers report it when there is nothing else -

The things you need to remember about bird flu are:

H5N1 (or a similar virus) will develop into a human strain in the same way as sooner or later Earth will be struck by a giant meteorite - - we just don't know when (at least we will be able to see the meteorite coming)

It is right for Governement to make a contingency for it but all they can do at present is stockpile generic flu' vaccines - a specific vaccine cannot be developed until after the mutation has happened it can also apply emergency control orders to stop the movement of domestic birds (it can do nothing to prevent the movement of wild birds so this measure will not prevent but may protect the food chain -primarliy to protect workers in the poulrty industry- to some degree - you will be protected by cooking your chicken and eggs properly

What can you do personally - you don't need to do a lot - don't go kissing any wild birds or domestic fowl and keep yourself healthy so if (when) the epidemic comes (it may not be in your lifetime - it may be next month) your immune system will have a chance of fighting it off

And so endeth todays lesson on bird flu'

For more information check out the Institute of Food Science and Technology website

http://www.ifst.org/site/cms/contentviewar...asp?article=679

CS

Putting my old virologist hat on, I can only comment that there's an awful lot bizarre wishful thinking on bird flu promulgated on this forum (not referring to you here, CS, but to address one point, some viruses can last for a long time outside the host. Famously, there's a sample of TMV that is still infectious after being left for 80 years on the bench.)

Just briefly:

- Risk: chance of something happening (in a meanginful time frame)

- Hazard: what happens when something happens.

Risk: zoonosis requires mutiple mutations and recombinations have to occured (selective repackaging... the chances are infinitessimal), multiple passages required for the mutations, chicken adapted transcriptive engine has to evolve to work with human host cell factors etc etc.

Hazard: we all die of flu. Or not, depending on whether the strain is velogenic and what have you.

So, not a lot to worry about really... unless of course the government engineer the virus ON PURPOSE!

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WHO confirms H5N1 transmission human to human.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/index.html

"All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing."

In english, close human to human transmission confirmed, but in order not to panick the sheeple, we will be looking for a possible scapegoat....

Even more alarming there is no major mutation required, point mutation seems to have been enough. http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

:ph34r:

LHS

Well spotted I haven't been following the subject - just can't resist correcting people who post incorrectly

There is a worried tone in the WHO statement - perhaps it is starting - if it does it will be a major problem for far Eastern economies and the knock on effects will be enough to tip the world into recession no doubt

CS

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LHS

Well spotted I haven't been following the subject - just can't resist correcting people who post incorrectly

There is a worried tone in the WHO statement - perhaps it is starting - if it does it will be a major problem for far Eastern economies and the knock on effects will be enough to tip the world into recession no doubt

CS

Here's the key bit:

Analysis of viruses

Full genetic sequencing of two viruses isolated from cases in this cluster has been completed by WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the USA. Sequencing of all eight gene segments found no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations. The viruses showed no mutations associated with resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

Looks like calling it bird flu is a misnomer... perhaps it is now "highly uninfectious but deadly human influenza virus". Interesting if there's a genetic susceptibility to this virus.

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I actually live in Indonesia...

latest advice from the people I pay to tell me about these things.

"The Indonesian Ministry of Health (MOH) has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 strain of the avian flu virus in North Sumatra, making it the largest documented avian flu cluster case in the country. Seven members of a family of eight have been confirmed as having the H5N1 flu strain. A 32-year-old man developed avian flu-like symptoms and subsequently died on Monday (May 22). The man died after taking care of his sick son and may have caught the virus from his son, however there is no confirmation that human-to-human transmission has occurred and the MOH is still investigating.

LATEST AVIAN FLU CASE IN NORTH SUMATRA

This case is part of a family of eight living in Kubu Sembelang village in the Karo district of North Sumatra. The family had allegedly slaughtered chickens and pigs for a feast in late April and six members have subsequently died from the virus in May. The 32-year-old father is the seventh member of an extended family to be confirmed as suffering from the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die. One family member is still alive but he is among those confirmed positive for avian flu. Of the family members that died, all but one, have been confirmed as suffering from the avian flu. Authorities have not been able to confirm if one of the deceased members of the family was suffering from avian flu as the body was immediately buried without any specimens taken prior to her burial. The cause of her death cannot be determined at this point. Investigators however, suspect that she may have been infected as her health deteriorated in a manner similar to those who suffer from the H5N1 strain of virus.

NEW SUSPECTED AVIAN FLU CASE IN BANDUNG

On Tuesday (May 23), one of two new suspected avian flu patients from a family in Bandung in West Java died, leading to speculation that a new cluster has surfaced. The two are siblings and have exhibited symptoms associated with avian flu as well as had confirmed contact with dead chickens.

ASSESSMENT

The current concern is the inability of the local authorities to pinpoint the source of the avian flu outbreak. Indonesian and international health experts have found no leads from tested samples of various kinds of animals and manure collected around the scene in the remote village. Experts are hoping to find the animal source as soon as possible to dispel fears that the H5N1 virus has been able transmitted from human-to-human.

About five percent of the population could become affected in an area hit by the avian flu pandemic. According to the WHO, at least 30 people have died as a result of avian flu in Indonesia. The table below summaries the total cases of avian flu in Indonesia to date.

2005 2006 Total cases in Indonesia

Confirmed cases 17 25 42

Confirmed deaths 11 22 33

Source: World Health Organisation (WHO)

Human-to-human Transmission Not Ruled Out, But Possibility Remains Low

Virtually all human cases to date had contact with poultry carrying the H5N1 virus. Although there has not been any confirmation of human-to-human transmission in Indonesia, authorities are nevertheless not ruling this possibility out. Clusters of human infections are of concern because they indicate that the virus might be mutating into a form that is easily transmissible among humans. However, this is yet to be medically established in Indonesia.

The WHO has said that to date that tests had shown no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and hence no indication of significant mutations in the avian flu strain that has killed the family in North Sumatra. In addition, MOH and WHO’s investigation has also found no evidence of any spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.

Government’s Inability To Fight Avian Flu Outbreak Effectively

Simple problems have and continue to become tremendous obstacles in Indonesia’s battle against the H5N1 virus. The government has not shown the ability to fight the current strain of virus effectively and it will therefore not be able to cope in the case of an outbreak of human-to-human transmission in the near future. The problems include:

 Failure In Conducting Forced Mass Culling Operations

The cash-strapped government has not carried out mass culling of fowl in areas where the virus has been identified, citing high cost and a lack of funds, as well as difficulties in carrying out culling activities in many remote areas of the country.

 Lack Of Trained Personnel And Equipment

Indonesia also faces a shortage of trained personnel and equipment to gather and test the animal samples. Animal tests have thus been inconclusive. For instance, although local laboratory managed to detect H5 antibodies in animals in a remote village, they have not been able to test the samples for the N1 component of the virus – something they cannot do without reference materials from the WHO.

 Lag Time In Obtaining Test Results

With the inability of the local laboratory to run full tests in the country, full genetic testing of the H5N1 virus has to be sent to overseas laboratories such as the WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the US. This has caused delays in the government’s ability to detect and react quickly.

 No Cooperation, Continued Resistance From Villagers

Widespread culling would meet resistance in a nation where millions keep backyard livestock. For millions more, fowl are essential to their livelihoods. The villagers have also not been cooperative in providing assistance to local authorities in their investigations. Animal samples that may be most crucial in solving the North Sumatra case are missing, as villagers refused to provide the local authorities with the needed samples.

 Ignorance, Suspicion Of Government Intervention

Indonesians, especially those from remote villages also remain ignorant about the avian flu disease. They have also showed suspicion of government intervention.

 Possibility Of Covering Up

Several health experts have expressed concern about how long it has taken to get information about the outbreak in Sumatra and said it shows that should the H5N1 virus evolve into a pandemic form, there would be little chance of stopping it. WHO is trying to encourage countries to report suspected avian bird flu cases quickly but there are fears that some countries may try to cover up cases, in order to deal with them quietly.

ADVICE

At this stage, travellers to Indonesia – particularly children – are encouraged to avoid farms and marketplaces where they may come into contact with live domestic birds (such as chickens, ducks and geese or any other birds). Other prevention strategies for avian flu include:

 Avoid farms and market places where you may come into contact with live domestic birds.

 Avoid all uncooked chicken meat or eggs, including frozen meat.

 Particular care needs to be taken with foods that contain eggs that are not cooked such as mayonnaise and mousse.

 Wash hands thoroughly and surfaces after contact with raw meat and separate raw meat from other raw foods.

 Note that should the virus be present in chicken meat it would be killed in the cooking process. Temperatures of over 70 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes will kill the virus. At 80 degrees Celsius, the virus is killed in one minute.

 Regularly and thoroughly wash your hands and work space areas with disinfectants or alcohol based products.

 Avoid contact with people who interact with live poultry.

 Avoid wet markets, chicken coops and other places where it would be easy to come into contact with birds or their waste.

 It is safe to consume poultry and eggs, but both should be thoroughly cooked. Wash the shells of eggs in soap and water to minimise the risk of infection."

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Here's the key bit:

Analysis of viruses

Full genetic sequencing of two viruses isolated from cases in this cluster has been completed by WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the USA. Sequencing of all eight gene segments found no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations. The viruses showed no mutations associated with resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

Looks like calling it bird flu is a misnomer... perhaps it is now "highly uninfectious but deadly human influenza virus". Interesting if there's a genetic susceptibility to this virus.

Aussieboy

Glad you could spot the above (being a generalist I only noted the tone of the article - the specifics went over my head)

I know plenty about food borne illness and some about viruses that can be foodborne eg Noravirus - but the stuff you are talking about is well outside my sphere

As for your remark about the Government - it is quite apparent from Gov's response to any problem microbail BSE, Foot and Mouth, E.Coli they haven't a clue!

Here's a thought if a large percentage of pathogens are spread by animal excrement could the politicians be directly responsible - because they come out with so much B*LLSHIT :rolleyes:

CS

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Doom, gloom, blah blah blah.

More will die in car crashes & other preventable accidents etc.

UN estimate about 215 million will die. CBI estimate 20% of UK workforce will be taken out in one form or another.

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/05/24...reut/index.html

Bird flu fears hit Europe stocks

Wednesday, May 24, 2006 Posted: 0813 GMT (1613 HKT)

Europe

Stock Exchanges

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- European shares slipped on Wednesday, resuming their recent sharp downward trend, as fears grew of possible human-to-human bird flu transmission in Indonesia and after Wall Street ended down.

This kind of thing does not do confidence any favours. With IR sensitive assetts under pressure from world IR hikes there will be few even half-savvy speculators willing to invest in property. Time to sell while things are still high rather than wait until they are low.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060524/ap_on_...onesia_bird_flu

Officials 'stumped' by Indonesian bird flu By ANTHONY DEUTSCH, Associated Press Writer

17 minutes ago

JAKARTA, Indonesia - The U.N. health agency described the deaths of six Indonesian family members from bird flu as the most important development in the spread of the virus since 2003, saying it is investigating whether the disease has spread from person to person.
"
We have a team down there, they are examining what is going on and they can't find an animal source of this infection
,"
said Peter Cordingley, spokesman for the Western Pacific region of the World Health Organization

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They were all from the same family, and all lived on a poultry farm where they had been in close contact with chickens who had H5N1.

i.e. they all caught it from the chickens.

Link please because it's not what i Read

By Helen Branswell

(CP) - The large cluster of human cases of H5N1 avian flu being investigated in Indonesia may represent the first time the virus has been seen to ignite two successive waves of human-to-human spread, the World Health Organization said Tuesday,

A spokesperson said the agency has not yet started the process of reviewing whether the global pandemic alert level should be raised to Phase 4 from the current Phase 3.

But Maria Cheng said it is conceivable that WHO might convene a meeting of the panel of experts who would advise on that decision - depending on what further investigation in the affected area reveals.

"This is the first time we have seen cases that have gone beyond one generation of human-to-human spread," Cheng told The Canadian Press.

"It is an evolving situation and it is possible we would convene the task force if we saw evidence the virus was changing."

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2195027,00.html

The Times

Health chiefs fear worst over family killed by bird flu

By Sam Knight and agencies

World health chiefs said today that they were increasingly concerned about the bird flu deaths of six Indonesians from one family, raising fears of the first human-to-human transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus.

Its starting to look like the inevitable has become manifest. The great HPI-HPC debate may well be over now. :(

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2195027,00.html

The Times

Health chiefs fear worst over family killed by bird flu

By Sam Knight and agencies

World health chiefs said today that they were increasingly concerned about the bird flu deaths of six Indonesians from one family, raising fears of the first human-to-human transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus.

Its starting to look like the inevitable has become manifest. The great HPI-HPC debate may well be over now. :(

I wouldn't get too worried as they really don't know - but they have to take it seriously because of the potentialrisk the effects of which could be huge

We're probaly not at great risk in the UK - yet

It will not have a postive effect on the world economy that's for sure

CS

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