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James Lovelock - Enviro Guru

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J Lovelock the Godfather of the enviromental movement is convinced global warming is inevitable and we are right on the cusp of disaster.

Last nights 1 hour interview on BBC 4 revealed some startling insights:

1) Our green and relatively temperate land will become the envy of much of the world as vast swathes of the planet is rendered useless for food production what with lack of rainfall, high temperatures and worst - rising sea levels. Also natural disasters to rapidly increase in severity and incidence.

2) The Earths population is well beyond sustainable levels so food production to meet this need becomes less and less viable which will be compounded by farming failure.

3) UK land will be in vastly greater demand for food production as food importation evaporates (former exporters need to hang on to thier own production)

Faced with such a challenge HPI is pretty irrelevant, however I thought it worth mentioning this as the implication for UK land prices over next 30 years is clear.

Now, how do I buy some cheap farmland?

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Now, how do I buy some cheap farmland?

Hold on for the HPC obviously.

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Now, how do I buy some cheap farmland?

Hold on for the HPC obviously.

I thought that farmland was cheap already. I keep hearing about it being near impossible to make a decent crust farming these days iwth the supermarkets forcing down prices.

Billy Shears

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I thought that farmland was cheap already. I keep hearing about it being near impossible to make a decent crust farming these days iwth the supermarkets forcing down prices.

I think this is the problem. It's near impossible to buy land and become a farmer now but when/if global warming/peak oil etc arrives we will need to suddenly scale up production as imports will stop and probably supermarkets won't be able to continue with their inefficient methods of freighting stuff around the country.

Whether we have the skills to do this is another question

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but when/if global warming/peak oil etc arrives

If cheap energy runs out we won't have to worry, because without transport and oil-based fertilisers at least 50% of the population of the country will die of starvation anyway... and probably far more.

If the oil runs out but is replaced by cheap energy from other sources, then it doesn't matter.

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Land gone from 1k to 5k an acre (poor land) round here in less than 10 years - at the same time, returns / acre have fallen significantly. The smart farmers have gone to places like Hungary where land and labour is dirt cheap and yet the quality of available land is fantastic. I also know farmers who have relocated to France - and are doing much better out there than they could every have dreamt of back in Wales.

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Guest Guy_Montag

Of course if the North-Atlantic conveyor is turned off our green & pleasant land becomes a white & (IMO) pleasant land. Of course a lot of people will disagree with me & we might see land in N. Africa, Spain & southern France becoming popular.

Who said Croatia yesterday?

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J Lovelock the Godfather of the enviromental movement is convinced global warming is inevitable and we are right on the cusp of disaster.

Last nights 1 hour interview on BBC 4 revealed some startling insights:

1) Our green and relatively temperate land will become the envy of much of the world as vast swathes of the planet is rendered useless for food production what with lack of rainfall, high temperatures and worst - rising sea levels. Also natural disasters to rapidly increase in severity and incidence.

2) The Earths population is well beyond sustainable levels so food production to meet this need becomes less and less viable which will be compounded by farming failure.

3) UK land will be in vastly greater demand for food production as food importation evaporates (former exporters need to hang on to thier own production)

Faced with such a challenge HPI is pretty irrelevant, however I thought it worth mentioning this as the implication for UK land prices over next 30 years is clear.

Now, how do I buy some cheap farmland?

I saw the programme. I thought it was interesting, and I like J Lovelock. It's good to see an environmentalist who is not also a neo-luddite.

If he is correct, one problem with his predictions are timing. Being 100 years out in geological terms is nothing, I don't see how anyone can be that accurate on their prediction of how quickly this scenario could play out.

So, your farmland could be economically unviable for around 100 years or so - but it will probably be a great investment for your great grandchildren.

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Don't forget there are strong VIs when it comes to climate change. I'll come clean - I benefit from all of this alarm because I get loads of work because of it. But when you have scientists sounding alarm bells about climate change, who do you think benefits from all the extra funding that floods through.

I'm currently working on developing and implementing carbon offset schemes for several corporates. Carbon trading / offsetting is incredibly dodgy a great deal of the time, and it's yet another industry that wouldn't exist without all this alarm about climate change.

I'm not convinced by the science, but would I ever tell anyone I deal with? no - I'd probably get lynched and my business would suffer. It's all a bit cult-like.

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Report out today says we've underestimated temp rises and need to take into account more feedback problems in the eco-system.

I take it the global warmers' research grants are up for review again? They _always_ say 'oh no, the sky is faling, we must have more money', no matter how absurd their previous claims may have been... because if they didn't, they be in the dole queue in a few months.

As for 'feedback problems', the only 'feedback problem' I'm aware of is that the computer models absolutely rely on positive feedback systems to raise temperature which have never been seen in the real world.

Carbon trading / offsetting is incredibly dodgy a great deal of the time, and it's yet another industry that wouldn't exist without all this alarm about climate change.

Exactly. It's nothing but another way to funnel money from consumers to Tony's cronies, while encouraging companies to ship jobs abroad to countries which don't impose such stupid costs on them.

Edited by MarkG

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So James Lovelock can tell you exactly how this is all going to play out? bulls""t

no one knows if we will be under ice sheets or swamps and if they say they do they are lying

he has his considered opinion but thats not much better then a guess.

the best bet might be a superinsulated house that floats!

So James Lovelock can tell you exactly how this is all going to play out? bulls""t

no one knows if we will be under ice sheets or swamps and if they say they do they are lying

he has his considered opinion but thats not much better then a guess.

the best bet might be a superinsulated house that floats!

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J Lovelock the Godfather of the enviromental movement is convinced global warming is inevitable and we are right on the cusp of disaster.

Last nights 1 hour interview on BBC 4 revealed some startling insights:

1) Our green and relatively temperate land will become the envy of much of the world as vast swathes of the planet is rendered useless for food production what with lack of rainfall, high temperatures and worst - rising sea levels. Also natural disasters to rapidly increase in severity and incidence.

2) The Earths population is well beyond sustainable levels so food production to meet this need becomes less and less viable which will be compounded by farming failure.

3) UK land will be in vastly greater demand for food production as food importation evaporates (former exporters need to hang on to thier own production)

Faced with such a challenge HPI is pretty irrelevant, however I thought it worth mentioning this as the implication for UK land prices over next 30 years is clear.

Now, how do I buy some cheap farmland?

Farmland is about £2000 an acre, it has been at this price adjusted for inflation for about the last 100 years. The only time it is going to be worth more is if you can get planning permission on it (might not be in your life time but could happen almost anywhere) in which case it is worth a 100 times more. You still have to look after the land to some extent, even if you aren't farming it so their are costs involved.

Usually you would have to buy a field, or a farm, pick up a farmers weekly, their should be some for sale in the back.

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If cheap energy runs out we won't have to worry, because without transport and oil-based fertilisers at least 50% of the population of the country will die of starvation anyway... and probably far more.

If the oil runs out but is replaced by cheap energy from other sources, then it doesn't matter.

http://www.rmi.org/

Is this relevant? I saw Almoury Lovins being interviewed on news24 (along with maybe 12 other viewers) and he has sold his view point to me. He claims business and commerce will dictate the rise of alternative power sources to oil, gas and nuclear. He does have a point when he states that no nuclear power program would go ahead without huge subsidy from govt. Business is investing in wind and solar as there is a profit to be made. I used to believe in the mixed strategy - that we need to invest in every type of generation - but after hearing him I'm not sure.

Can renewables, micro-generation and bio fuel replace our present C20th technologies, whereby freeing up our remaining oil for fertilizer or is he a misguided fool? Pls read the link.

Edited by murpaul

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Farmland is about £2000 an acre, it has been at this price adjusted for inflation for about the last 100 years. The only time it is going to be worth more is if you can get planning permission on it (might not be in your life time but could happen almost anywhere) in which case it is worth a 100 times more. You still have to look after the land to some extent, even if you aren't farming it so their are costs involved.

Usually you would have to buy a field, or a farm, pick up a farmers weekly, their should be some for sale in the back.

Maybe it can!

Link

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Our green and relatively temperate land will become the envy of much of the world as vast swathes of the planet is rendered useless for food production what with lack of rainfall, high temperatures and worst - rising sea levels. Also natural disasters to rapidly increase in severity and incidence

I thought England would become an iceblock due to disruption of the gulf stream

which is it

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I thought England would become an iceblock due to disruption of the gulf stream

which is it

That idea was around a few years ago, but is now out of favour. It's incredibly difficult to model the gulf stream as it is strongly non linear. It's in a stable state and no matter how you hard you push, things stay the same. But give it a slightly harder push and it changes completely without a chance of ever going back.

I was thinking of buying (I wish) a hill in the peak district for future skiing a few years back.

GrimUpNorth

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The earth will heat up/freeze* eventually whether we pump massive amounts of CO2 in or not. Man has risen from the apes in a geologically speaking very small period of stable and warm climate across the whole globe. It has been very warm up here in Leeds in recent (within 1 million years) times and we have bones of Hippos, Lions, etc to prove it dug up from near the Armley Gyratory (for those of you who know Leeds). However, since they were here in what you would guess was Savanna and a relatively hot climate there has been another cold period where we had glaciers 100 metres thick down the Aire Valley. Funny, all this happened without me driving my car, heating my house, shopping at ASDA, etc.

This sleazy government could do a whole lot more by simply imposing the German Passivehaus standard on all new houses built from January 1st 2007, by taking tax off fuel effiecient transport such as trains and encouraging hybrid, electric, fuel cell and bio-diesel vehicles through tax breaks. Too many VI's earning big money to do so though :angry:

*delete as appropriate

Edited by 2112

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Whilst Lovelock was very enganging I think he has overdone the doom.

Humankind will no doubt find solutions when really pressed. JL claims vast swathes of the Earth will suffer desertification but surely we would build giant de - salination plants?

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Guest Winners and Losers

If global warming actually happens, a good proportion of the UK will be underwater!

It was my understanding that the UK was already slowly sinking? :unsure:

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Farmland has doubled in price the last few years as more people become desperate to own 'something'.

Our land is clay, f-ing useless for growing things, good for grazing. Even this stuff is going for £4-5K/acre, redland is even more. This bloke reflects my own opinions, we will see an agricultural renaissance in the UK within 20 years.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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