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sam

I Can Understand Those Predicting A Property Crash

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

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Prediciations are pointless - nobody knows

You have to believe in what YOU think and position yourself for the future...

Edited by dnd

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Yep have to agree, No one can predict the future, only look at the fundemental reasons for things happening.

I think the crash is still a couple of years off yet. In my opinion the only reason for a crash will be a significant rise in interest rates. All the other factors help, but are not triggers.

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I cannot see how anyone can disagree with the assertion that property his high by any standard you care to name (income, yields, historical comparisons etc).

Getting from that point to predicting prices to fall in real terms is not much of a jump at all.

The hard bit is telling me whether it will be sharp nominal falls, long drawn out real falls, will it affect my Victorian terrace or will it mainly hit the new build flats, will the north be affected most or least?

Saying, prices are high, they must fall is absolutely obvious. Predicting the detail and the time-frame is the relevant thing.

Can I buy a house to renovate and sell up in six months oor will the crash happen in the meantime? Can I trade up to a better house for my kids (if I had any) now, knowing that falls will be small and start in 2 years time, or would it be suicide to move on with my life right now? These are the important matters.

Edited by Father Fred

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

I have never made any predictions about whether a price crash will happen and if so when, partly as I am more of an outsider looking in at the moment and have little vested interests either way. However I will make a prediction now. I believe that this summer will be the turning point. There will not be a sharp reduction however but it will be a gradual eroding of property values over several years. My reasons?

Firstly I believe that a slight increase in interest rates coupled with a slower job market will halt any further price rises. Then when it appears that the top of the market has been reached or when small falls are being experienced many of the less profitable BTL will be sold, only to find there is not so much of a market for small 2 bed flats. The problem will get compounded when the fixed rate periods on mortgages expire. Finally I think this will go on for much longer than previous "corrections" due to the recent phenomena of interest only mortgages. Not a high proportion probably but it will make some people realise eventually that they are only renting once they see no capital increase. It doesn't take a big change in sentiment to change the market. If there are 100 buyers and 96 houses for sale its a sellers market. If 103 houses for sale its a buyers market.

What annoys me is that the papers will then start to say that people should have been more careful with their borrowing (muppets!)

If people disagree with me I don't care. None of us know what will actually happen of course.

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My rent is far cheaper than buying at present, so I can save and invest the difference.

I'm building up far more equity than I would by paying it into interest payments on a mortgage.

And prices around my way haven't gone up (other than the odd chancer getting lucky) in 2 years or so.

HBOS data has shown my town as being -3% last year and -4% this year. Not too shabby, but I hope for better falls in future... once things really get going.

But I agree, I though it'd unwind before now. I'd like it asap, but I can wait.

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I cannot see how anyone can disagree with the assertion that property his high by any standard you care to name (income, yields, historical comparisons etc).

Getting from that point to predicting prices to fall in real terms is not much of a jump at all.

The hard bit is telling me whether it will be sharp nominal falls, long drawn out real falls, will it affect my Victorian terrace or will it mainly hit the new build flats, will the north be affected most or least?

Saying, prices are high, they must fall is absolutely obvious. Predicting the detail and the time-frame is the relevant thing.

Can I buy a house to renovate and sell up in six months oor will the crash happen in the meantime? Can I trade up to a better house for my kids (if I had any) now, knowing that falls will be small and start in 2 years time, or would it be suicide to move on with my life right now? These are the important matters.

Good post.

In my area, the new build stuff is poorly located and stupidly overpriced. In fact a new build one bed flat on a main road costs more than a well located 2 bed terrace with garden and large rooms. I can see these flats halving in price to be honest, as there is no-one who actually wants one.

Check out some of the big flat developments in Basingstoke for an example of what is to come. No-one who has ever been to Basingstoke would buy one. They were originally sold for £250k but they are now £150k on rightmove, with hundred more still being built.

IMO in forty years people will be talking about these flats as eyesores and demanding they be pulled down.

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But I agree, I though it'd unwind before now. I'd like it asap, but I can wait.

Likewise, and so did many, as the fundamentals went out of the window around 2002.

The mistake was not to realise the this time it actually was different.

I dont think anyone had fully realised the extent of the massive excess fluidity in the global markets.

This has only started to correct, and the relative mayhem of the last couple of weeks is only a taster of whats coming. The last 2 weeks only represents the markets beginning to take account of the concept of risk again

Housing is only one of a series of multiple asset bubbles. They are all bubbles [housing, stocks, bonds, comodities, art and antiques, wine.....] and whats different this time, ie now, is there are no asset classes left for bursting bubbles to inflate.

IMO it isnt going to be pretty and housing in UK's Miracle Economy is not going to be spared

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

Bears come in two types on here. Type 1 - The 'End of the world' sandwich board type bears that cry wolf every time there is a piece of bad news. Type 2 - the kind that takes a long term view and tries to predict where things are going. Type 1 discredits the site. Type 2 is the kind you want to take note of. There are some really intelligent posters on here.

Edited by SCUMBAG

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Likewise, and so did many, as the fundamentals went out of the window around 2002.

The mistake was not to realise the this time it actually was different.

I dont think anyone had fully realised the extent of the massive excess fluidity in the global markets.

This has only started to correct, and the relative mayhem of the last couple of weeks is only a taster of whats coming. The last 2 weeks only represents the markets beginning to take account of the concept of risk again

Housing is only one of a series of multiple asset bubbles. They are all bubbles [housing, stocks, bonds, comodities, art and antiques, wine.....] and whats different this time, ie now, is there are no asset classes left for bursting bubbles to inflate.

IMO it isnt going to be pretty and housing in UK's Miracle Economy is not going to be spared

Sums it up nicely. :)

What amazes me the most is how many people have been convinced to take on crippling debts, especially in the absence of wage inflation!

That liquidity didn't find its way into housing in any way other than massive, massive debt.

I couldn't sleep at night if I had a £29K income (average for my area according to ONS :lol::lol: ) and a £180K mortgage.

It amazes me what people can be convinced to do by a bit of clever spin and marketing.

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

The trouble with you sam is that you seem unable to make up your own mind about property crashing or not crashing. Many here dont need this site to sense that a crash will come. This site has not influenced my decision to stay out of the market but IMO it's usefull to see what others have to say and has been really good with investment tips to make the most of the deposit money. Dont be a sheep or you will end up following advice which is wrong for you and then trying to blame others. You must make your own choices.

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Saying that because house prices haven't corrected yet that they are unlikely to correct is like a 20 pack a day smoker saying that because she hasn't developed lung cancer she is unlikely to.

The day I stop predicting a house price correction of some form is when the fundamentals don't show that there must be a correction. But that can only happen after a correction.

Billy Shears

Edited by BillyShears

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

"Young Turks" eager for the correction often call it to soon. But unlike you, they do not suffer from a split personality, they are at least consistent in their view. Now I can understand people changing their stance on the Housing Market, such as Marina for example. But you appear to bounce off the walls and ceiling like a rubber ball :ph34r:

Edited by Catch22

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Guest Winners and Losers

But you appear to bounce off the walls and ceiling like a rubber ball :ph34r:

Must you get RFD excited like that? :rolleyes::ph34r:

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"Young Turks" eager for the correction often call it to soon. But unlike you, they do not suffer from a split personality, they are at least consistent in their view. Now I can understand people changing their stance on the Housing Market, such as Marina for example. But you appear to bounce off the walls and ceiling like a rubber ball :ph34r:

If I didnt know you better I would say that you were reaching for the awooooga alarm. :D

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Bears come in two types on here. Type 1 - The 'End of the world' sandwich board type bears that cry wolf every time there is a piece of bad news. Type 2 - the kind that takes a long term view and tries to predict where things are going. Type 1 discredits the site. Type 2 is the kind you want to take note of. There are some really intelligent posters on here.

Much of the hyperbole by some posters is done with tongue in the cheek (but I am not sure you have realised this). When vested interests are declaring that a house price crash is less likely than Elvis being found on the moon, it is good to see a bit of balance.

Anyone still in the market for property today is unlikely to have an IQ of more than about 35 and wacky claims of doom are probably the best way of getting through to them.

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

I think the problem is unrealistic expectations. Look to the past and you'll see that a crash takes years to pan out, and as Bubb pointed out, it's only really apparent in hindsight unless you're monitoring very carefully. Crash is probably too emotive a word for what has happened before, and what I believe is likely to happen this time. Slide is probably a better word.

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Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

Hmmm ... Sam didn't you write this: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=19402&hl=

You Guys will get your collapse, but you are going to have a long wait a long time, is it really going to be worth it. Everything crazy about this property bubble that has been said on this Forum is spot on, but if i was some of you lot i would log off and forget the whole thing, nobody is going to be a winner once the crunch finally comes 10 20 or 30 years from now.

A prediction of 10, 20 or 30 years now that is something to be embarrassed about! <_<

HD

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Anyone still in the market for property today is unlikely to have an IQ of more than about 35 and wacky claims of doom are probably the best way of getting through to them.

I'm not sure it matters to most people. You've less of a problem buying at the peak provided you sell at the peak (not that I'm suggesting what we're experiencing is a "peak", that's for expert economists to suggest).

The way I rationalise everything is like Father Fred - just looking at the general economic indicators and assessing the risks. I'm a first time buyer so my thinking (in no logical order) goes along the lines of:

1. if prices continue at 5%+ pa then I'll be "priced out" within 2 years

2. at the moment the place I live in is cheaper to rent than to buy (on i/o basis)

3. houses prices are historically high

4. interest rates are historically low

5. inflation is historically low (if you believe the government figures)

Based on that we all make our own assessment of relative risks. Personally I find the idea of taking a 4x income mortgage is considerably more risky than the risk of being "priced out" by 5% pa rises for 2 years. I might be wrong to arrive at that conclusion but to me, it doesn't make economic sense to buy an asset at a historically high price when inflation and interest rates are at historically low levels.

Surely "historic high / historic low" suggests that the position is more likely to reverse in the future rather than keep moving in the direction seen in the past 5 years? Of course, this all assumes governments will act aggressively to control wage/cost inflation... any sign they won't and I'll buy!

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I'm not sure it matters to most people. You've less of a problem buying at the peak provided you sell at the peak (not that I'm suggesting what we're experiencing is a "peak", that's for expert economists to suggest).

Good grief! Have you lost all leave of your senses. A house is the most expensive thing you will ever buy. If you pay too much for it, you will saddled with a debt burden which will affect your ability to save for retirement, go on holiday, bring up children, buying a car, eat properly etc. It is a sad fact that most marriage break ups are blamed on cash problems.

Do not pay too much for a home! It can seriously affect your wealth!

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"Young Turks" eager for the correction often call it to soon. But unlike you, they do not suffer from a split personality, they are at least consistent in their view. Now I can understand people changing their stance on the Housing Market, such as Marina for example. But you appear to bounce off the walls and ceiling like a rubber ball :ph34r:

What is your problem, why is it that i am getting the feeling of having a stalker <_<

Read more post properly bellend, i was asking about "OTHER PEOPLES VIEWS", i am certain a correction will take place, just not quickly anymore., i have not changed my view at all, and so what if i did, are you saying that you mind is that closed that you cannot change.

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I have lurked on this board for a couple of years now, initially i found this site through a search engine, and at the time i was convinced we was going to have a property crash within a year.

I still believe a severe correction will come in time(but still way off), i have watched numerous frenzys on this board from bird flu to weather patterns around the world to the yen as a cause of the crash, the times i have heard "RIGHT THIS IS IT" :) it really is getting quite funny now, last weeks share collapse being the latest "RIGHT THIS IS IT NOW" reason for the crash.

Could everyone be honest with me now and tell me when they will get to the point when predicting the Correction/crash becomes an embbaressment or something they should just let go of.

I let it go almost exactly a year ago when my (now) wife and I bought our house together. Although it bloody hurt to go against my feelings that a crash was imminent, time has proved it a good decision so far. We have a lovely home and a baby on the way and "nesting" has been fun in a way that renting could never be.

I have to say though that you have to do what is right for you. The house we bought is big enough to last us for life. The mortgage is 4 times my income (or twice our joint income) which although a big weight on my shoulders doesn't keep me awake at night.

If I was starting out I would wait, but at aged 32 the time was right for me.

I still think there will be a price correction but life goes on and it might take 5 years or more. Getting on with your life and being happy with your decision is the only way to live.

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What is your problem, why is it that i am getting the feeling of having a stalker <_<

It's a forum, STUPID. People post opinions, and people reply to them, thats how it works .

On your last 10 /20/30 posts how many of them have I replied to directly ? Exactly. Therefore your belief that your important enough to have a stalker, just shows how delusional you really are.

Read more post properly

Well I tend to struggle when you post unintelligible garbbage

are you saying that you mind is that closed that you cannot change.

I suggest you take time to read my posts, then you would see I do understand people changing their view, "Marina" is the clue word.

Have a nice day :D

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It's a forum, STUPID. People post opinions, and people reply to them, thats how it works .

On your last 10 /20/30 posts how many of them have I replied to directly ? Exactly. Therefore your belief that your important enough to have a stalker, just shows how delusional you really are.

Well I tend to struggle when you post unintelligible garbbage

I suggest you take time to read my posts, then you would see I do understand people changing their view, "Marina" is the clue word.

Have a nice day :D

You really are such a ****** Pal, make you a deal, you stay well clear of me, and i will do the same,

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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