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Hm Revenue Property Transactions

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HM Revenue Property Transactions were published yesterday. At around 140k (April) they are historically pretty high, and consistent with recent mortgage approvals data. House prices have always risen quite sharply with this level of transactions. Let's hope the numbers fall off a cliff, and soon. :(

Graph:

transactions.png

post-210-1148365148.png

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wrongmove

Don't forget that stamp duty rates are stepped and that London/SE (thanks to the equity, debt and commodity market booms) has seen a lot higher transactions this last year, remember all the stuff about bumper bonuses. Combine those two effects together and how much additional money has come from this area alone, you'd expect a rebound in housing tax income. Then there's the 40% of London sales to foreign "investors". This figure may not say anything about the level of overall domestic demand although I certainly wouldn't rule out knock-on effects of London leavers splashing their cash elsewhere in the country.

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Guest wrongmove

wrongmove

Don't forget that stamp duty rates are stepped and that London/SE (thanks to the equity, debt and commodity market booms) has seen a lot higher transactions this last year, remember all the stuff about bumper bonuses. Combine those two effects together and how much additional money has come from this area alone, you'd expect a rebound in housing tax income. Then there's the 40% of London sales to foreign "investors". This figure may not say anything about the level of overall domestic demand although I certainly wouldn't rule out knock-on effects of London leavers splashing their cash elsewhere in the country.

I take your points, but the graph shows the number of transactions (i.e. houses sold), not the revenue raised. A form has to be filed with the revenue, even if the property is below the stamp duty threshold.

I think transactions should drop off sharply from here, if only because of the usual summer lull and the world cup. But transactions at this level are bad news for FTBs and bears generally.

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HM Revenue Property Transactions were published yesterday. At around 140k (April) they are historically pretty high, and consistent with recent mortgage approvals data. House prices have always risen quite sharply with this level of transactions. Let's hope the numbers fall off a cliff, and soon. :(

Graph:

transactions.png

Or we could just hope that GB has had a hand in the figures.

Maybe someone should pay a £10 and make a FOIA request for the data set.

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Guest wrongmove

Yep, the only way is up.

Tits up ? :P

What's your current prediction on the timing of the next IR cut, TT ?

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It's a tough call. But I don't believe the foregone conclusion argument, especially in light of the last week or two of stock market activity.

Sentiment has already been damaged, a U-turn on rates would not go down well - it would be seen as playing with the market. Also where wold the money go if effectively central banks backed down on curtailling excess consumption? Another rush for commodities I expect.

Some games you cannot win and it is best not to start playing them.

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Sentiment has already been damaged, a U-turn on rates would not go down well - it would be seen as playing with the market. Also where wold the money go if effectively central banks backed down on curtailling excess consumption? Another rush for commodities I expect.

Some games you cannot win and it is best not to start playing them.

I'm not sure that my Net Worth would agree with you.

:lol:

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I'm not sure that my Net Worth would agree with you.

The only thing that really matters in life is if you have your health.

If you don't have that, then what does money matter.

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Ahhh, looks like were about the peak of one of those short 2->3 year cycles, i keep on seeing in all the graphs....

Edited by moosetea

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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