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Gel

Black Monday Is Here...

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Nothing much going on. It's just commodities being hammered, but we knew a bubble had grown there.

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Guest The_Oldie

Gold has taken a pasting too. I also see Rightmove shares at their lowest ever! 340p

Builders have lost pretty much what they pulled back on friday.

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Take my thread subject with a pinch of salt but it's not looking good today is it....

Edited by Gel

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The credit powered bubble is unwinding. No wonder Warren Buffett got out of comoodities and real estate and into cash ready to buy at the bottom! The bear market for IR sensitive assetts begins. Confidence in borrowing huge sums of money to buy into the late stages of the property bubble will be plummeting very soon.

I expect to see the US $ head back up somewhat as the Fed raise the rates and as the deficit reduces due to their HPI and MEW correction.

When the market rumbles Gordon's "Miracle Economy" today's SM correction may seem mild in comparison.

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Perhaps we all need to pile into mortgage sellers Alliance and Leicester and Bradford and Bingley shares - they're up 7% and 2% due to Credit Agricole bid speculation! Obviously some hope there for the future of the housing market?

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Europe is wayyyy down too... roll on 2pm when the US opens up.

FTSE 100 -110 pts

FTSE 250 -190 pts

FTSE ALL - 56 pts

Edited by Gel

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Builders have lost pretty much what they pulled back on friday.

They are still well off their top though... can't imagine what possessed people to buy back into them. Can only think it was private investors thinking "property" + "share" = "safe!".

I keep on telling myself I invested for the "long term" but this is hurting.

Only way to beat the city is to invest 10yr+, buy at the bottom and enjoy in 10 years time.

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Doesn't the stock market always drop wildly in the morning? Then pick back up in the afternoon?

Not nearly 2% it dont. Thats a serious amount of cash wiped off the boards, and I am guessing the people who will have lost the most will be the ones who jumped on last. . . missed the boaters. Article over at FT up already.

FT.com

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Doesn't the stock market always drop wildly in the morning? Then pick back up in the afternoon?

It doesn't normally drop wildly although it does have a tendency to rally after big drops if everyone isn't scared out of their wits...

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Guest Guy_Montag

It doesn't normally drop wildly although it does have a tendency to rally after big drops if everyone isn't scared out of their wits...

10% is a correction

20% is a crash

apparently :rolleyes:

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When Warren Buffett dumps commodoties and goes to cash it must have been for a reason! I went 85% cash and am thinking about dumping the other 15% when the US opens. Things could go 2002 again with an IR sensitive assett meltdown. House prices are already heading sharply south in the froth markets everywhere and itys hard to see how long Gordon and the VIs can keep the pretense going here.

Speaking of house market related IR sensitive assetts, some really bad news this morning (good news for HPCers though :) ):

http://www.kamcity.com/namnews/asp/newsart...sp?newsid=27313

UK: B&Q To Reveal Major Fall In Profits
The Sunday Telegraph reports that Kingfisher will this week reveal that operating profits at its B&Q chain fell by more than
70%
in the first quarter, due to severe price cutting in the face of depressed consumer spending. For the three months to the end of April, profits at B&Q are expected to be just £17m, down from £71m last year, according to the company's house broker, Credit Suisse.

Gold meltdown:

GOLD AUG 06 (NYM:GC6Q.N)

Last Trade: 649.00 $

Trade Time: 9:34AM

Change: 36.00 (5.26%)

Prev Close: 685.00

Edited by Realistbear

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UK: B&Q To Reveal Major Fall In Profits
The Sunday Telegraph reports that Kingfisher will this week reveal that operating profits at its B&Q chain fell by more than
70%
in the first quarter, due to severe price cutting in the face of depressed consumer spending. For the three months to the end of April, profits at B&Q are expected to be just £17m, down from £71m last year, according to the company's house broker, Credit Suisse.

Hmmm I wonder why that could be? Could it be because all the people that have bought houses in the past few years are now spending a huge %age of their disposable income on simply paying their huge mortgage payments, and don't have money for anything else (other than rising bills and essentials like food/petrol)? So rising House Prices have crowded out spending on anything else maybe?

No, of course not. Silly me. I forgot, everyone in the UK is rich in our 'miracle economy'. :unsure:

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perhaps it wasn't so unexpected as everyone thought - an ex-trader friend of mine has been kind enough to share his little charts with me - he uses a variation on some nomura inhouse system he 'borrowed' before he left, and it's been fascinating watching this chart develop. All the red line were in place WEEKS before the turns. Shame I don't actively trade anymore!

edit: its the S&P, of course.

Picture_1.png

post-1065-1148290012.png

Edited by CrashIsUnderWay

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This will be a repeat of the 1929 crash...

The market will fall now in the next few weeks then, once the World Cup and weeks of sunshine come, the market will bounce to new, greater heights. The financial press will convince themselves that previous falls were just a blip and forecast a bull market that will run for years... at which point sometime around Oct/Nov the market will crash BIG time.

This is TMT's crystal ball of the future and investors are reminded that shares can go up and down. Forecasts of the future are no indicator of future events. 15% commission will be charged on all investors who follow this lunatic advice.

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Hmmm I wonder why that could be? Could it be because all the people that have bought houses in the past few years are now spending a huge %age of their disposable income on simply paying their huge mortgage payments, and don't have money for anything else (other than rising bills and essentials like food/petrol)? So rising House Prices have crowded out spending on anything else maybe?

No, of course not. Silly me. I forgot, everyone in the UK is rich in our 'miracle economy'. :unsure:

Dont be stupid. People dont go to B&Q anymore because, thanks to the Miracle Economy, they are now professionals and get a 'man in' to do the DIY for them - Well thats the lame explanation that Rosie Millard and her BTL media-mates are spinning

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Dont be stupid. People dont go to B&Q anymore because, thanks to the Miracle Economy, they are now professionals and get a 'man in' to do the DIY for them - Well thats the lame explanation that Rosie Millard and her BTL media-mates are spinning

Or they have already done up their houses ... I can't see people redecorating once a year.

For example..for the last 3 years I've been trapsing back and forth to B + Q to buy what Travis Perkins doesn't sell...yet now my house is done up I have absolutely no use for them whatsoever....I would say their profits are falling in to a more realistic line.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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