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Bes

Will The Bubble Ever Burst?

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Hi

Like most people here, I have been waiting and waiting for house prices to drop to reasonable levels.... I'm almost getting to the point where I am so frustrated I am just going to go ahead and buy.

With the fact that so many more people now want to buy and live alone (a much higher figure that its been in the past) and people seem to be so willing to borrow 6-8x over their income. Not only that but an ageing population (and all these old people tend to own their houses) is it simply that we've missed the 'golden' age on housing and we are going to see prices at this level (perhaps just rising with inflation) for ever, and perhaps just the occasional small (couple of %) correction downwards?

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Not only that but an ageing population (and all these old people tend to own their houses) is it simply that we've missed the 'golden' age on housing and we are going to see prices at this level (perhaps just rising with inflation) for ever, and perhaps just the occasional small (couple of %) correction downwards?

People said exactly the same in 1989. Maggie Thatcher bought a house because if she didn't then she'd never be able to afford it!

Well guess what, when people can't afford houses they don't go and live in tents.

What happens is the price of houses comes down, in a big slide that lasts about 5 to 10 years.

We're now on this slippery slope going down.

Buying now would be absolute folly. Enjoy the freedom of renting without a financial albatross around your neck, and just be patient.

Edited by BandWagon

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Government figures for last Q show West Midlands/Stratford area where I live DOWN 8.2%. The crash has arrived it just hasn't spread everywhere yet!

I am starting to sing that old song again: Happy Day are Here Again, the Skies Are Blue and House prices are going down the Loo! Oh Happy Days are Here again the IR are rising and the house price drops are truy amazing. :)

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Hi Bes

I think there are lots of people out there who think exactly the same way as you do and that's why the high prices have been sustained for so long ... because they do then go out and buy! However, keep the faith (Yeah, I know, I'll punish myself later for quoting Bon Jovi songs! :blink: ) and enjoy the show!

Bubbles always either burst or deflate! If you chew a chunk of HubbaBubba for a few minutes, you can blow a small bubble that will then deflate. If you chew it a bit longer, you can blow a bigger bubble. I see house prices as the bubble the showoff kid at school could always blow. The problem was though that his bubbles never deflated ... they always blew up in his face! :P

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i used to get very frustrated that house prices were so high and that i was/am getting priced out the market.

But the way i look at it, i would rather NOT have a mortgage that would mean i have no life and invest my money elsewhere.

If prices come down i'lll buy, but having my own property is not the be all and end all (i never thought i'd say that!)

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Guest mattsta1964

i used to get very frustrated that house prices were so high and that i was/am getting priced out the market.

But the way i look at it, i would rather NOT have a mortgage that would mean i have no life and invest my money elsewhere.

If prices come down i'lll buy, but having my own property is not the be all and end all (i never thought i'd say that!)

Absolutely the right attitude to have

This is not the time to buy into the market. Prices will have to come down.

I reckon things might bumble along for another 18 months 2 years before there is any substantial dropoff in prices though

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Hi

Like most people here, I have been waiting and waiting for house prices to drop to reasonable levels.... I'm almost getting to the point where I am so frustrated I am just going to go ahead and buy.

With the fact that so many more people now want to buy and live alone (a much higher figure that its been in the past) and people seem to be so willing to borrow 6-8x over their income. Not only that but an ageing population (and all these old people tend to own their houses) is it simply that we've missed the 'golden' age on housing and we are going to see prices at this level (perhaps just rising with inflation) for ever, and perhaps just the occasional small (couple of %) correction downwards?

oh lordy. another born again bull.

the answer to your question is...no.

Edited by geneer

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Hi

Like most people here, I have been waiting and waiting for house prices to drop to reasonable levels.... I'm almost getting to the point where I am so frustrated I am just going to go ahead and buy.

With the fact that so many more people now want to buy and live alone (a much higher figure that its been in the past) and people seem to be so willing to borrow 6-8x over their income. Not only that but an ageing population (and all these old people tend to own their houses) is it simply that we've missed the 'golden' age on housing and we are going to see prices at this level (perhaps just rising with inflation) for ever, and perhaps just the occasional small (couple of %) correction downwards?

On demography and missing the golden age of housing see this paper:

"The Baby Boom: Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates"

Robert F. Martin, November 2005.

I don't have the link but you can Google it and see the PDF.

Abstract: This paper explores the baby boom's impact on U.S. house prices and interest

rates in the post-war 20th century and beyond. Using a simple Lucas asset pricing model,

I quantitatively account for the increase in real house prices, the path of real interest rates,

and the timing of low-frequency fluctuations in real house prices. The model predicts

that the primary force underlying the evolution of real house prices is the systematic and

predictable changes in the working age population driven by the baby boom. The model

is calibrated to U.S. data and tested on international data. One surprising success of the

model is its ability to predict the boom and bust in Japanese real estate markets around

1974 and 1990.

The UK is one of the economies used to test the model. See Figures 14, 15, 16.

In theUK the baby boomer generation inflates prices as their cohort moves through time - until around 2012 when they start to die off (sorry to put it so bluntly). The prediction for the UK is declining HPs until 2035. On this view the golden age of housing, if there is such a thing, is yet to come and will be most beneficial to those born around, say, 1990.

I keep posting this paper but to little response. Too bearish for the bears?

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oh lordy. another born again bull.

the answer to your question is...no.

I'm not a born again bull- I would call myself a realist.

I can see why house prices should (and perhaps need to) fall and I do believe there will be some kind of correction. However, what one thinks and what actually happens are not always the same thing.

I was simply thinking about things from a different perspective and putting a few thoughts across!

I don't think I would actually be able to go ahead with a purchase at this stage, as I haven't been able to bring myself to offer on anything yet (and I got VERY close at one stage, as I am desperate to move and buy something for a number of reasons).

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Jesus, there's no need for some of you to be so rude- God forbid someone should come on here and put forward another point of view!

Like I said above, I do think prices have to fall (and I beleive they will at SOME point) but my original post simply listed a few factors that perhaps didn't feature so much the last time this kind of situation existed.

Perhaps in future I should blindly be railroaded down the same path as everyone else on this forum and not dare ask anything that could be contrary to a fall in house prices!

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Jesus, there's no need for some of you to be so rude- God forbid someone should come on here and put forward another point of view!

Like I said above, I do think prices have to fall (and I beleive they will at SOME point) but my original post simply listed a few factors that perhaps didn't feature so much the last time this kind of situation existed.

Perhaps in future I should blindly be railroaded down the same path as everyone else on this forum and not dare ask anything that could be contrary to a fall in house prices!

Or do a search.

The tired old points you made in your "I'm a genuine newbie, honest mister" post have been covered umpteen times before.

Quiet day at Foxtons today?

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Jesus, there's no need for some of you to be so rude- God forbid someone should come on here and put forward another point of view!

[snip]

Perhaps in future I should blindly be railroaded down the same path as everyone else on this forum and not dare ask anything that could be contrary to a fall in house prices!

To be fair Bes, the site is called HousePriceCrash.co.uk! I think maybe you needed to take a right back at the traffic lights to get to HousePricesMeanderSlightly.co.uk? ;)

Quiet day at Foxtons today?

Lol! :D:P:blink:

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Jesus, there's no need for some of you to be so rude- God forbid someone should come on here and put forward another point of view!

Sorry Bes but this is www.housepricecrash.co.uk and NOT www.frustratedbuyer.co.uk If you want to buy a house now - great - that's your perogative. Many of us here know there's going to be a crash but not when It'll occur - Patience is what's required.

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Quiet day at Foxtons today?

yeah that's real funny!

Like I said I DO think a drop is due and will happen at some point (people have been saying/ thinking this for quite a while though)

The only purpose of my orginal post was to bring up a few points which may have an adverse affect on any impending drop. What's a forum without some kind of debate/ alternate point-of-view? ;)

PS I did search and couldn't find any posts directly addressing the things I said. Perhaps I didn't look hard enough.....

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Absolutely the right attitude to have

This is not the time to buy into the market. Prices will have to come down.

I reckon things might bumble along for another 18 months 2 years before there is any substantial dropoff in prices though

Forthcoming IR rises will get this slide in full swing, there is NOTHING the government can do about it. HPI is hanging on by the skin of its teeth and media spin. The banks are starting to up their IR deals and their calculation based on affordability will be tightened.

Using the Nationwide Affordability Calulator using 2 applicants with a mortgage of £150,000 over 25 years with applicant 1 on 25K and applicant 2 on £14K. No other income - No outgoings comes to a max of £165,750.

Try using this calculator again after the FIRST and then possibly the second IR rise and you will see that figure DROP dramatically.

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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I'm no troll all I wanted to do was discuss a couple of factors that may go against any drop in house prices. If you're unwilling to entertain such a discussion, or disagree these things will factor in a drop, that's fine with me but is there a need to be so blunt about it?

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I'm no troll all I wanted to do was discuss a couple of factors that may go against any drop in house prices. If you're unwilling to entertain such a discussion, or disagree these things will factor in a drop, that's fine with me but is there a need to be so blunt about it?

I refer you to my previous reply. These have been covered extensively before. In addition, I note that you put your points across in a less than eloquent manner, very much in the style of an EA troll.

Goodbye!

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Forthcoming IR rises will get this slide in full swing, there is NOTHING the government can do about it. HPI is hanging on by the skin of its teeth and media spin. The banks are starting to up their IR deals and their calculation based on affordability will be tightened.

Using the Nationwide Affordability Calulator using 2 applicants with a mortgage of £150,000 over 25 years with applicant 1 on 25K and applicant 2 on £14K. No other income - No outgoings comes to a max of £165,750.

Try using this calculator again after the FIRST and then possibly the second IR rise and you will see that figure DROP dramatically.

TB

ive thought for some time that this time the govt/BoE will wriggle out of raising IRs a lot because of the problems it has caused in the past especially in the mid 70s and late 80s.........

For example if the economy needs slowing down they may tighten fiscal policy instead and raise taxes to rein things in.........you see raising irs hits a particular group of people...those with large mortgages in proportion to their incomes..(usually 30 somethings)..whereas tax rises affect more people but to a lesser degree..........so cause less economic upheaval generally..........

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Guest mattsta1964

I just think something more drastic will have to happen in order to precipitate a crash in the market.

Everyone knows how precarious the global economy is, but right now, I can't see any reason why the market will crash in the immediate future. The doom mongers on this forum have been predicting armageddon every week for over 2 years and still nothing happens.

I'm sure the crash will come.............but trying to predict when?????????

Time to chill out and have a beer I reckon. Life's too short to clog up my arteries thinking about this today.

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Guest mattsta1964

So instead you'll poison yourself to death with alcohol then? ;):D

Definitely the lesser of 2 evils! Scuse me now. Beer's going flat :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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