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lewissheridan

Will House Prices Ever Be Affordable ?

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There seems to be a high level of confidence in our economy - and the fact that there hasn't been any significant shift southwards of house prices suggest to me that more and more people are opting for other methods to get onto the housing market. It is probably their belief, and encouraged by their elders that house prices never go down, and it was expensive when they bought their first house. These people are going into it blind, borrowing high income multiples based on average earnings spread over 30+ years. And of course there's those going for the shared-ownership route also. The bottomline is you can't stop these people from doing it, and they're doing it daily - and all the meanwhile, a few people who studied the history of house prices are holding back in the hope of a massive crash/correction.

The crash won't happen because there's too many stupid people sadly who will keep this going - the banks are still lending copious amounts of cash. I'm almost at the point to say this is the way the world economy is going, jump on board join in - it's your only option for reward - otherwise you're be forever priced out and excluded from the party that the masses are revelling in right now. There was a thread on here about everyone being rich. I went into my local CoOp, and a can of coke was 69p! 7-up was 72p! I thought these drinks were 50p - and even i thought that was pricy!! How do people afford their £40k X5s ? It's crazy consumer driven credit frenzy - driving up inflation etc etc.

I know a lot of this has been mentioned before and this adds nothing new to the debate - but my thoughts are prices aren't going to be affordable ever! :angry:

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I find beer works well.

it's like banging your head on a brick wall ... painful

except in my case it's cheap prefab plasterboard on rented flat - incurred cost of course on damage

someone wake me up for this hideous nightmare - i can't believe the country is full of greedy selfish people

:o

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There seems to be a high level of confidence in our economy - and the fact that there hasn't been any significant shift southwards of house prices suggest to me that more and more people are opting for other methods to get onto the housing market.

You say that there hasn't been a significant shift southwards of house prices but this is to ignore the fact that in 2004 HPI was 20% per annum. It has taken some time for HPI to slow down and it will eventually go negative across the UK but it does depend where you are living and you do have to realise that the property market does not go from shooting up to crashing down over night. It takes time to change direction but it is happening. A real example is of a property I know where the owners bought in maybe 2004 and sold in 2006 for the same price which means that when you factor in stamp duty, solicitors fees and the cost of moving they have lost money. Just because it takes time for the housing market to change direction it does not mean that the market is going up and up.

It is probably their belief, and encouraged by their elders that house prices never go down, and it was expensive when they bought their first house. These people are going into it blind, borrowing high income multiples based on average earnings spread over 30+ years. And of course there's those going for the shared-ownership route also. The bottomline is you can't stop these people from doing it, and they're doing it daily - and all the meanwhile, a few people who studied the history of house prices are holding back in the hope of a massive crash/correction.

I wouldn't over-estimate shared ownership. The number of shared ownership schemes in the property market is pretty small when compared with the total number of properties bought and sold. Its a factor but it is not the main one making FTBs join the property market. Most indicators show that the number of FTBs joining the property market are very low now. I am sure there was some data on here some time ago showing that the number of FTBs joining the property market WITHOUT parental help was negligible. I would also add that there is no process for excluding STRs from FTB data, that is to say that if you sell but do not find anywhere suitable to move to and go into rented accommodation when you rejoin the market you will be counted as a first time buyer even though you owned property before.

I think you are wrong that the only people holding back from buying property are those on HPC. Most people hold back because they simply can't afford to buy anywhere at today's prices rather than because they have been studying the statistics. Hence why the number of FTBs in the market is so low.

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If its any consolation, and its probably not, my own train of thinking is this:

High house prices are caused primarily by low interest rates.

Low interest rates = low monthly payments = people can afford more = prices go up.

Speculation, sentiment, kirsty ******wit et all, property sections, estate agents all figure, but they only figure because of the low interest rates. They are symptoms of the disease.

After the last two-three years, I have depressingly watched prices not crash round my way (herts) and if anything, edge up to the point where a reasonable 2 bed terrace is over 6 times my wages.

What we do have now though is a general acceptance that interest rates are going up, and the ftse possibly crashing. This is why I think it would be crazy to throw in the towel now, after having waited so long. Interest rates are on the turn, and that will turn sentiment.

I'm giving it to summer 2007. If we are not in full crash mode by then I'll be mortgaging my ******** off.

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If its any consolation, and its probably not, my own train of thinking is this:

High house prices are caused primarily by low interest rates.

Low interest rates = low monthly payments = people can afford more = prices go up.

Speculation, sentiment, kirsty ******wit et all, property sections, estate agents all figure, but they only figure because of the low interest rates. They are symptoms of the disease.

After the last two-three years, I have depressingly watched prices not crash round my way (herts) and if anything, edge up to the point where a reasonable 2 bed terrace is over 6 times my wages.

What we do have now though is a general acceptance that interest rates are going up, and the ftse possibly crashing. This is why I think it would be crazy to throw in the towel now, after having waited so long. Interest rates are on the turn, and that will turn sentiment.

I'm giving it to summer 2007. If we are not in full crash mode by then I'll be mortgaging my ******** off.

I'm pretty much giving it till summer 2007 also, I want to see some momentum in a negative direction at the very least -5%. Prices are 6 x my salary round here.

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I'm pretty much giving it till summer 2007 also, I want to see some momentum in a negative direction at the very least -5%. Prices are 6 x my salary round here.

Yes, 2007 it is. Even if it means moving to Luton ;)

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Pretty obvious I should have thought. Looked like a trollish thread to me and wanted to express my annoyance without wasting time or feeding it.

Yes of course, a troll thread, started by a member of 3 years with 166 posts, and a consistant viewpoint.

Sorry if we're not reinventing the wheel for your entertainment, but people dont really need your approval to chat about house prices here.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

There seems to be a high level of confidence in our economy

Confidence was much higher in 1929.

People were so confident they ended up as paupers.

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ok ok don't get pissy. I didn't look at the member profile it just looked like more of the troll rash that the board suffered from a month or so ago.

and I don't need your approval to make my comments, hey?

Calm down everyone!

lewis sheridan seems like a reasonable person who has got jittery about whether house prices will fall recently.

It happens to the best of us.

Yeah there are lots of trolls about, none worse than Jonathan Trees though.

He makes TTRTR look like a pussycat.

Edited by underpressuretobuy

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and I don't need your approval to make my comments, hey?

No, you have every right to make your ill-considered & drunken posts, and I have every right to counter with equally drunken ones. :P

Edited by Flick

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Pretty obvious I should have thought. Looked like a trollish thread to me and wanted to express my annoyance without wasting time or feeding it.

Why is the thread 'trollish' ? :huh:

It holds a legitimate question of whether house prices will become reasonable in the near or foreseeable future - and it asks whether house prices have ever been affordable.

In addition because i don't believe there's going to be an almighty crash - I think i have a more realistic view on how this will pan out. My concerns are with our expected baby, I can't cling onto the hope house prices are going to crash and indefinately hold out renting - a dose of reality is needed - and the reality is house prices aren't crashing - there's every sign they're plateauing. In theory, based on graphs, history, economical principles etc. the market is unsustainable and this 'crash' is inevitable... it could be another 5-7 years before the correction really takes place! I for one can't put my life on hold for that amount of time because of a house! Life is for living.. so going back to my question, if house prices will never be affordable, and never were affordable then i'm deceiving myself waiting for this correction - and based on that will turn to plan b. And in respects to being a troll - maybe you could of spared the courtesy to read my previous posts and make a more informed decision. Opinions are great, people have different opinions, it adds to the debate - branding people as a Troll's is a bit narrowminded don't you think ?

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Why is the thread 'trollish' ? :huh:

It holds a legitimate question of whether house prices will become reasonable in the near or foreseeable future - and it asks whether house prices have ever been affordable.

In addition because i don't believe there's going to be an almighty crash - I think i have a more realistic view on how this will pan out. My concerns are with our expected baby, I can't cling onto the hope house prices are going to crash and indefinately hold out renting - a dose of reality is needed - and the reality is house prices aren't crashing - there's every sign they're plateauing. In theory, based on graphs, history, economical principles etc. the market is unsustainable and this 'crash' is inevitable... it could be another 5-7 years before the correction really takes place! I for one can't put my life on hold for that amount of time because of a house! Life is for living.. so going back to my question, if house prices will never be affordable, and never were affordable then i'm deceiving myself waiting for this correction - and based on that will turn to plan b. And in respects to being a troll - maybe you could of spared the courtesy to read my previous posts and make a more informed decision. Opinions are great, people have different opinions, it adds to the debate - branding people as a Troll's is a bit narrowminded don't you think ?

Scary thing is, take the inflation adjustment out of the graph on the home page, and plateauing is a real option - and lets face it, Gordon ****-***** Brown has removed the inflation adjustment from our economy. Things just get more expensive now - but inflation doesnt go up !

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Alright I'm sorry! You're not a troll and I am sorry for my faint crossness about your thread of earlier. I didn't look to see who you were and there have been soooo many troll posts along the theme of 'buying a house has always been really difficult' and lots of people wade in, myself included, to point out that that's not true and go into the ins and outs of their parents' experience of buying a house on one income with just a few years of reasonable sacrifices etc. etc. and it expends a lot of effort. And all of the 'may as well jump in' posts, as well, as though most of us on here could! On first reading, your post ticked a couple of troll boxes for me and I couldn't be bothered with it - I realise now that you're genuine. About going and reading people's other posts before replying - am never going to start doing that, I'm afraid. As regards renting and the apparently endless wait for prices to come down - I am in the same position and you have my heartfelt sympathies. I have reconciled myself to renting for at least another 3-4 years and to that extent don't feel that my life's on hold but I can imagine it's worse with a baby on the way and you're really feeling the urge to get a place of your own. It shouldn't be that way. People should feel that they can bring up children in rented accommodation. Bloody hell the rental sector in this country just blows.

Completely sober, by the way, Flick, could really have done with a glass of wine this evening and didn't end up with one although must surely put a stop to my too-long period of sobriety within the next few days. Hrumph. :P to you, too. ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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