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Timberrrrr.......gold Is Down!

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Big time sell off in Gold. Happy to be out for so long. Could not ever see myself buying at $700 so fast in the year.

Sorry for other newbies who bought at $650 - $700. No worries we should be back up again to $1250 in 2010. So hold what you have.

Too much ego can get you in trouble. Try to be down to earth and I will not miss too much.

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Big time sell off in Gold. Happy to be out for so long. Could not ever see myself buying at $700 so fast in the year.

Sorry for other newbies who bought at $650 - $700. No worries we should be back up again to $1250 in 2010. So hold what you have.

Too much ego can get you in trouble. Try to be down to earth and I will not miss too much.

we'll be up to $1200 gold a lot sooner than that!!!!!

here's how it works kids.

1) commodities rise increasing GLOBAL inflation........yup,got that.

2)gold rises due to FEAR of inflation....yup,got that too(along with geopolitics)

3)IR's RISE GLOBALLY to combat the FEAR of inflation,so gold temporarily goes down,after all higher IR's reduce demand don't they????.........yup,got that one too.

now the other bit:

4)punters realise that higher IR's are draining that lovely free liquidity(money) out of the system and scramble to preserve what they have.

stocks no good as cost pressures rise and demand is moderated by laying off staff(who now have less income to spend on tat)...

bonds no good as the bull market with mega-high prices and low yield has been killed off by IR hikes,causing lower prices and higher hield.

property no good as it's too dependant on consumers(who are dependant on debt and bond markets)

so where does the investor run????....the old tried and tested over 3000+years!!!!!!

I'm not quite as doom laden as all that,I think the GLOBAL economy will tootle along ok.but it's worth bearing in mind that the UK and US consumer kept it going virtually on their own over the last 15 years so it would be fair for them to take a breather while the rest of the world takes up the slack wouldn't it??

...that's why I'm in basic resources and gold bigtime,and the sector HAS pricing power in spades.

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I sold today because I didn't like the look of the big dropoffs, and because I bought in recently.

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I sold today because I didn't like the look of the big dropoffs, and because I bought in recently.

Buy high, sell low? You'll need harder nerves than that. I also bought recently (a bit to what I have) but have no intention of selling in the foreseeable future. If gold falls to 625 I'd buy some more.

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Guest boredwaiting

Buy high, sell low? You'll need harder nerves than that. I also bought recently (a bit to what I have) but have no intention of selling in the foreseeable future. If gold falls to 625 I'd buy some more.

I think mega and I bought around the same time, I just have bigger balls :) (or i am more stupid)... I still think gold will do well but it'll be up and down all summer now.... I will leave it in and see what happens. Mostly as I don't really know where else to put the money that will give me a better gain....

But it was definately a learning experience for me. I am new to stocks and shares but I could definately see that sentiment had changed and although i didn't expect such a large drop, i definitely expected some sort of a drop... I think gold will carry on dropping next week and pick back up at the end. A lot of people have waited for this and gold has been sold to cover shorts. I think people will want to buy the gold back and get in.... This is the drop a lot of people have been waiting for....

There, that's my first ever prediction - feel free to throw sand in my face :)

I miss cgnao - he did make me feel all warm inside about gold....

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My view is that the gold stocks have pointed to this correction for a few weeks now. The HUI has not reflected the recent gold price increase.

So IMO, the gold stocks have recently provided a good leading indicator. Interesting that today the HUI finished less than 1% down. Maybe, just maybe, the correction is done....?

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I think mega and I bought around the same time, I just have bigger balls :) (or i am more stupid)...

Hi bored.

I can't be certain about the size of your balls, or the size of your stupidity ;) (just a joke!!!)

However. I do have a kind of strategy, which I learned from a book I read about buying stocks. The chap who wrote the book has a major investor magazine in the USA.

Background

1. In a market the buyers hold all the flexibility (as they have sterling) and the sellers hold all the risk (since they have gold / oil / house / sheep / reebok trainers). Since there is no such thing as a forced buyer the sellers always (ultimately) come down to the price of the buyers. Supply and demand / boom / frenzies etc... act as a trend around this.

2. The market price chart shows the decisions made by thousands / millions of individuals worldwide. You do NOT have a say in their decisions.

3. If the price goes UP it means that thousands of people have agreed that it is right for the price to go UP. You get NO SAY in this.

4. If the price goes DOWN it means that thousands of people have agreed that it is right for the price to go DOWN. You get NO SAY in this.

So, getting back to the chase, WHY ARE YOU BUYING?

You're buying because, for whatever reasons - be they fundamental or speculatory - you believe that the price is going to go UP, so that you will be able to sell later to take a profit.

The thrust of the strategy is this:

DON'T EVER DISAGREE WITH THE MARKET.

Buy in when you see the price going UP. [1]

Prepare to sell out at a future time WHILE THE PRICE IS STILL GOING UP. [2]

If the price drops to your buy point, and starts to dip below SELL. Why? Beceause the market is disagreeing with you.

It is permissable in this strategy to have SOME pullbacks, but these should always keep you a reasonable margin above your most recent buy point.

WHAT WENT WRONG

In my case, things went fine for getting IN, but I chose no to do [2]. Last week I saw the price get to $725, but I didn't sell. I heard the talk of pullbacks, and when the first part occurred, I didn't sell because it was still above my buy point at that stage. After the second "firebombing" of gold, it boxed me out.

The pullback came at a stage when there wasn't really a lot of space between my buy point and the current (hopefully local) top in the market.

As it stands, I pretty much protected my position.

I don't mind things being a bit volatile in the gold market, but because of the strategy I use, it could make getting in a bit difficult now compared to last year. (This is why I am kicking myself for not buying in last year, and NOT because the gold is more expensive now).

Edited by megaflop

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Guest boredwaiting

Hi bored.

I can't be certain about the size of your balls, or the size of your stupidity ;) (just a joke!!!)

I can tell you for certain my stupidity is very big :)

That's a nice way to look at trading actually - Anything that is as humbling as that description is good to hold on to. I actually do believe gold will go back up. I read some reports that two mines are having difficulty in production and indian jewellers are using this opportunity to buy gold. But at it's next rise, i will probably sell too as I don't have a lot of money to trade and I think there is a nice opportunity coming soon and I want to take part in it. I will put some thing on GEI about it this weekend, but it will be a long term investment.

In the meantime i will wait until gold goes lower and see about these junior minors that Bubb talks about, however I suspect what I use as investment is pocket change for him so I may no be able to trade with the companies he suggests.

Also I waited for a dip last year and watched the price of gold go from 560 to 640(i bought about 640). I have been kicking myself for this but also recognise that I may have got in too late as it was... If gold goes to 620 then I will sell, that's my limit (it was 590 but i am now not so bullish on gold as I was).

I suspect I have a lot to learn... I though investing was easy... Just risky. But when I see what people do I realise i will have to work as hard as I do for my regular job :)

Anyway, we'll see what happens next week...

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4. If the price goes DOWN it means that thousands of people have agreed that it is right for the price to go DOWN. You get NO SAY in this.

Guess this strategy could work nicely in a properly competitive market; but doesn't it fall apart if www.jsmineset.com is correct and central banks are involved? Can you successfully apply a strategy for buying stocks to buying gold? Transaction cost & currency risk complicate things further.

I don't mind things being a bit volatile in the gold market, but because of the strategy I use, it could make getting in a bit difficult now compared to last year.

About the only thing you can be sure about in the gold market is volatility, and the hedge funds, explosion in ETFs, etc. is going to further heighten this.

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Can you successfully apply a strategy for buying stocks to buying gold?

I don't know, but for now I have to have something. At least they're both easy to sell quickly.

About the only thing you can be sure about in the gold market is volatility, and the hedge funds, explosion in ETFs, etc. is going to further heighten this.

You're probably right. However, we'll just have to see how it goes.

Next time, I would lock in profits if I see so much negative-sentiment talking like it has been recently. Taking something is better than taking nothing.

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As regards precious metal stocks, if the general markets stabilise they must be close to a good buy point right now.

Most of my favourite CAD stocks have lost in excess of 30% in the

last week (glad I'm all cash since Friday before last!)

I suspect I have a lot to learn... I though investing was easy... Just risky. But when I see what people do I realise i will have to work as hard as I do for my regular job :)

I don't think so. I spend maybe 2 hours per day

following/researching the CAD miners and economy

in general, while looking after 2 young kids, and have made

fantastic returns last 12 weeks. And it's an interesting hobby in itself.

Start small though, while your experience and knowledge builds.

Pent

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I can tell you for certain my stupidity is very big :)

Bet mine's as big as yours :) Bearing that in mind, I'm very bullish on gold (in the 1-2 year timeframe) for the reasons already stated elsewhere:

- All our paper money is flowing ever faster to Asia

- Asians haven't been put off gold by years of central bank selling, also don't like the dollar ruling the world

- All big tech companies are setting up in india, where there are millions of technology graduates each year. Indians love gold. Google news 'gold' and you'll see (at the very least) 1 indian newspaper in the top 20 every time. There's an Indian ETF coming also.

- The only thing that will kill gold is IRs > inflation + deposit rate = say 12.5%

- The central banks can't raise IR this high without say reducing house prices by say 50% minimum

- The recent sales (7 big ones last week looking at the graphs?) don't 'look' like normal activity - They don't have the 'spikeness' of normal gold trading?

- Each spike up can be directly realted to bad news. Only some of the moves down can be related to good news

- IMO, the recent general move up was caused by loss of confidence in Bernake, who is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Central banks are more scared of delation than inflation, so will err on the side of inflation

- Hasn't even reached non-inflation adjusted highs

- Hopefully, the western central banks will not sell of the last of the western worlds gold.

- Have fallen hook, line and sinker for Jim's story: www.jsmineset.com - seems realtively honest (as far as one can tell with these things) and he's been trading PM for as long as I've been alive - Think of the 'inside' contacts he must have. (Although goldbug's advice must be taken with a pinch of salt as they are currently more excited than ever because this is the best chance of a fiat currency collapse since 1971 (although still small).)

- Bush is a warmonger puppet, bent on grabbing assets for the 'military industrial complex' backing him.

The counter arguments seem to be:

- Gold has little intrinsic value (True except for jewellry, but why do all central banks hold gold & why has russia (and perhaps china?) been buying?)

- The cost of production is say $300/oz, so gold must tend back down towards this when production exceeds demand (this won't happen until gold share increases enable increased mining investment?)

- Gold is at near all time highs (Why haven't these been adjusted for inflation? & These all time highs were set when the only people in the world who had the money to buy gold were a realtively small number of westerners)

(The thing that really p*sses me off is that (if Jim Sinclair is correct), the BoE is manipulating the gold price down to bail out LME hedge funds. I really hope that they have merely leased the last of the UK's reserves rather than sold them - Gifting the last of our nation's gold to Asia would be as historically unforgivable as selling 50% of our nation's reserves at the bottom - probably below even production costs!). Think about how many generations of chancellors it took to accumulate all the gold our Reichsmark Chancellor has blown.

It is for these reasons I'm holding a minority of my portfolio in gold, and plan to accumulate on any falls. I certainly don't know enough to try day trading gold and think that volatility will make any attempts to profitably do so increasingly impossible.

If you want to get into gold, perhaps think about sorting out something along the lines of a sovereign accumulator account, buying say a coin each week or month as you see fit. Maybe averaging down over the summer will work out (unless Iran kicks off). As long as you don't invest more than you can afford to tie up for a long time, and are able to handle anything up to the (small possibility) that the price could drop 50% to the production value, you should be OK. One of the great things about coins is that not only can you sell them instantly if they are in a bullion account, you can also sell them without using a broker. Worst case scenario, I'll either sell them on ebay one day, use them on holiday to exchange for foreign currency, or one day give them to my children/godchildren/whatever.

(many apologies for boring with another long post - been gold dreaming & in a rambly mood today :rolleyes: )

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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