Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
BillyShears

Will A Single 0.25% (to 4.75%) Rise In Ir Crash The Market?

Recommended Posts

It will help people come to terms with the possibility of more rises, so will change opinion.........

Along with jobs being lost all over the place and houses not being the cash machines they were over the last few years, i predict prices going negative significantly before wage inflation :huh: can catch up.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

Yes it will, particularly if followed by further tough talk. It will turn sentiment.

Two quarters will well and truly nail those BTL yields.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A small rise will hold prices steady but not crash the market. We need rates at about 6.5% for that.

I've come to realise that the only thing that will really start the HPC is when the sheeple start to hurt. When Garys mates start losing their houses, their jobs and the designer pink ripped polo shirts from their backs, only then will he acknowledge that it's not a good idea to buy. As long as his mates are still buying he's going to want to join the herd.

We need to bring the pain. :lol:

Edited by devslim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

time will crash the market. unless IRs get cut more. then more BTL will think its a good idea to step in again.

if they hold them for another few years they may just pull of this new plateau...but i dont see too many people stepping up to the plate, so i feel its going to fall.

the gen below me, although skint and in debt seem to have accepted tha ladder bait.

can they make it to fledgeling mortgage takers ?

if they can last the illusion over my generation they will make it.

no IR cuts and time would crash it as it is now. as would good rises and less time.

but if they cut them. its over. we lost out for good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you read about the CPI – and what has made it go up to 2% - if we did not have high oil prices they would have a job to keep it above 0% - I think that Interest rates will come down soon as they are adjusted in accordance to what the CPI is and when that comes down then so will Interest Rates

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you read about the CPI – and what has made it go up to 2% - if we did not have high oil prices they would have a job to keep it above 0% - I think that Interest rates will come down soon as they are adjusted in accordance to what the CPI is and when that comes down then so will Interest Rates

It would be 'fudged' upwards toward its target......... Like it is 'fudged' downwards.......

I go along with the bigger picture in the world as we see it today, and that is the fact that interest rates are on the increase or have been increased and we are lagging behind........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I go along with the bigger picture in the world as we see it today, and that is the fact that interest rates are on the increase or have been increased and we are lagging behind........

So how does that work with Europe – it’s been below 3% for a long time – yet they seem to have a strong currency -etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So how does that work with Europe – it’s been below 3% for a long time – yet they seem to have a strong currency -etc

Could the EU be raising again soon ????

what about Japan ? What about the US ? What about China ? UP DOWN UP DOWN GOOD BAD GOOD BAD...

Swings and roundabouts, follow the leader, pass the parcel etc......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it would stagnate the market. FTBs would probably not buy... and in turn would mean YoY HPI would eventually go negative. When this happens a crash could occur. But more than one rise would be needed to crash the market in less time!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could the EU be raising again soon ????

what about Japan ? What about the US ? What about China ? UP DOWN UP DOWN GOOD BAD GOOD BAD...

Swings and roundabouts, follow the leader, pass the parcel etc......

We may be lagging behind - but not by much – Europe are well behind –

We just raised our IR’s early – that puts us ahead of the game?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I reckon it will be when we get closer to 6%. Probably will happen due to the appreciation of the Yuan against the $ hitting import prices, kicking through to inflation. How long will it take? I'm not sure; due to the availability of derivatives/forwards/long term contracts etc. I reckon inflationary pressures take longer to kick through to the rest of the economy (why I believe that we have yet to see the full effects of the commodities price spike)

Sorry, went a bit off message there.

6% for the record

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I vote yes, it will wake people up and start the show.

It's gotta hurt those borrowed to the max on IO and the like, and the prospect of more to come will be a hard trend to hide, once world trends are analysed.

Bring it on.

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness

It might affect sentiment slightly, but it will take much more that 0.25% to have a discernable effect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be the beginning of the end, but not the end (yet!)

I believe as we slide into serious recession all the carefully

crafted stitch-work of micro-economics will come undone.

And be seen for what it really is, ‘the Emperor's new clothes’.

Immigration workers will leave this sinking ship for the next

vessel sailing, probably Germany.

and what will the (amateur) Landlords do then, poor things!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm really surprised that the majority are no.

I think that a 0.25% rise will indicate to the masses that IRs are on the way up, much as the last 0.25% gave some sort of indication that they were on the way down. This will seal the fate of the market. If IRs appear to be on an upward trend all those taking out fixed 2-3 year mortgages, IO to stretch as much as they can to get into property will be forced to consider that rates just might be higher when their fixed rate finishes.

This will finish this market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm really surprised that the majority are no.

I think that a 0.25% rise will indicate to the masses that IRs are on the way up, much as the last 0.25% gave some sort of indication that they were on the way down. This will seal the fate of the market. If IRs appear to be on an upward trend all those taking out fixed 2-3 year mortgages, IO to stretch as much as they can to get into property will be forced to consider that rates just might be higher when their fixed rate finishes.

This will finish this market.

It will have more impact then it did last year, (which was significant) we thought that was

the beginning of the HPC and it looked it too according to the graphs.

but I believe Blair has some other cards up his sleeve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.