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OzzMosiz

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Noticed the FTSE has sunk below 5800 again today. Any thoughts on why? Could this be the beginning of a crash?

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This is a very large drop. I cant remember seeing it fall this far before. Must be about 7% down from its recent high. Almost all in the last 3 days too. Looks like a crash to me.

Feeling very relieved I sold all my shares last week. Only gold to worry about now.

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This is a very large drop. I cant remember seeing it fall this far before. Must be about 7% down from its recent high. Almost all in the last 3 days too. Looks like a crash to me.

Feeling very relieved I sold all my shares last week. Only gold to worry about now.

Sine, I'm relieved too. Got rid off all mine last week too, except one cheap 3p AIM stock that I have a K in - I'll leave that one be. I must admit I was tempted to delve back into Invensys today, but I'm going to leave it alone!

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Sine, I'm relieved too. Got rid off all mine last week too, except one cheap 3p AIM stock that I have a K in - I'll leave that one be. I must admit I was tempted to delve back into Invensys today, but I'm going to leave it alone!

After a few months of suspended trading i decided to jump back in last week. I should wear a f*ckin cow bell around my neck. :lol:

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After a few months of suspended trading i decided to jump back in last week. I should wear a f*ckin cow bell around my neck. :lol:

Whoops! :blink:

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Whoops! :blink:

Its what i do, im a sorta financial messiah, i carry the burden of financial ineptitude and monetary losses so the rest of you dont have to.

:):lol:

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Guest boredwaiting

Its what i do, im a sorta financial messiah, i carry the burden of financial ineptitude and monetary losses so the rest of you dont have to.

:):lol:

Yet you don't complain :) It's nice....

I am only in gold right now... I got nervous on monday but now i am amazed that it bounced so quickly...

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Sine, I'm relieved too. Got rid off all mine last week too, except one cheap 3p AIM stock that I have a K in - I'll leave that one be. I must admit I was tempted to delve back into Invensys today, but I'm going to leave it alone!

I might wager a small spread on ISYS, may well be over-sold, depends on the context of course.

After a few months of suspended trading i decided to jump back in last week. I should wear a f*ckin cow bell around my neck. :lol:

"Please keep us informed of your future brainwaves!

edit: have we found the last fool in person?"

May 12th.

:P

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shares hey, what a con. good on the up, but some have probably lost the money they made on the way down. its just paper, this is the whole point of holding physical silver and gold. B)

the crash started a while back, the last few months has been the suckers rally.

Edited by debtfree

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shares hey, what a con. good on the up, but some have probably lost the money they made on the way down. its just paper, this is the whole point of holding physical silver and gold. B)

The paper represents part of a real company that generates real profits (hopefully) and output whilst employing people, and hopefully paying a dividend to boot.

Gold pays no dividend, it is simply a store of wealth.

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A FTSE100 indicator constructed from stock options open interest (it's my own).

indicator.JPG

post-141-1147937205.jpg

Edited by Sledgehead

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Guest wrongmove

its just paper, this is the whole point of holding physical silver and gold. B)

Well I went in a shop yesterday and gave them some paper, and they let me walk out with loads of stuff !!

Today I tried giving them a gold ear-ring, and they were very rude.

They clearly don't know the value of real money !

:lol:

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For the num nuts amounts us can you tell us what we are looking at :)

I'll tell you cos I know you have tried hard in your endeavours. I should however warn that there are NO easy answers in speculating, no matter how seductive some indicators look.

Edited by Sledgehead

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I'll tell you cos I know you have tried hard in your endeavours. I should however warn that there are NO easy answers in speculating, no matter how seductive some indicators look.

Ahh its all easy really, you just randomly pick a share then keep averaging down until it goes up, they will start to go up any day now :)

:lol:

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Its what i do, im a sorta financial messiah, i carry the burden of financial ineptitude and monetary losses so the rest of you dont have to.

:):lol:

Chuz I'm with you on this. We are the yang to the yin of Sledge, Van, DrB & co.

They couldn't exist without us, you know? :ph34r:

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Yeah, i've been working on a new strategy, guess i'll let a few of you guys in on it. Have a look at the wobbley line, if its lower than normal, whack a grand on. Wait for it to go up a bit. Finally, take the grand off. Hey presto. Works well with forex ;)

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I'll tell you cos I know you have tried hard in your endeavours. I should however warn that there are NO easy answers in speculating, no matter how seductive some indicators look.

I suppose I should say, without giving details, the peaky oscillator (the one with the peaks that correspond to ftse troughs) shows the relative (options) weight of bets held in puts (bets the market will fall) versus bets held in calls (bets the market will rise). Surprise, surprise, when too many people are betteing the market will fall, it recovers.

To some this seems odd. They feel the majority opinion should prevail. Markets that are efficient seldom work this way. If you too feel this way, ask yourself when you are most likely to close a position: when you feel it is too large or too small ...

Edited by Sledgehead

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Sledgey, I love you sentiment indicator. Can I ask where you get the information for the open interest? Or is it only available on a grey-box trading system?

FTSE as lost nearly 9% from peak to trough now - that's enough of a correction for me to go back heavily (but of course not quite fully) invested. At the moment I feel that the US markets are still holding us down - the Dow is only down less than 5% from peak, after all, and could have more to fall.

Nonetheless, the markets have to be a good bet for a bounce next week - those shorts have got to close sooner or later!

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Hmm I posted a topic regarding the FTSE being at a plateu/ peak the day before it dropped. Why oh why didn't I listen to my own advice?! I'd lost £1000 by the time I pulled out the next day.

Still a good £2,000 up overall though!

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I haven't bought any shares because I was too late in the day a few months back coz I believe (from my reading) that bull runs last, say, 3 years and then people take their profits.

Anyhow.

You boys with your recent rantings and ravings about the stockmarket shenanigans has forced me to dig up that half baked computer program I've got on the back burner, that downloads and displays stock charts, and (wil) keep track of my buys and sells (when I get around to finishing writing it).

I was using BHP Billiton as a test run, but haven't followed the action since feb 06. Still, click a button and it downloads stock data from yahoo.

Click to see bigger piccy:

th.0e0a298a76.jpg

Sorry about the scuff on the dates, and the lack of labels on the vertical axis, but this IS work in progress, you understand?

Apart from the weird high-volume action in jan/feb, it would seem that in end mar-april 06, there was very light volume action*, but a big run-up in price. Dr Bubb said something about this at one stage.

So, I might have been wary as early as last month.

You can see the selling for yourself at the end. This is big news sell-offs compared to normal trading.

Is this not the top of the market?

* So light in fact that you can't see it on the scale!

Edited by megaflop

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Sledgey, I love you sentiment indicator. Can I ask where you get the information for the open interest? Or is it only available on a grey-box trading system?

If it were a grey-box it would be of my own making!

Having said that the data is pretty difficult to collate without the right feeds. Even then I have had to use VBA to bring it all together as DDE linkage just can't cope (the chart is the result of processing 6675 individual records across 2 fields, ie 13,350 individual data values). I use an export facility particular to my data providers front end that let sme push out data once a min. As it is, the sentimet chart only needs a refresh once a day (at ~7am - ie the chart is available b4 open), but that doesn't alter the fact that it would be impossible under DDE.

On top of this the flat file truncates open interest to 4 significant figures, so I have to use heuristics to determine what the Open Interst really is (I take yesterday's and assume a tenfold change has not occured). This obviously can introduce errors, but they will largely be cancelled because the chart works on ratios.

On top of that the feed is no the cheapest (£460 a quarter). It is also prone to delays during the day. Over the last week intradya prices have been as much as 3 hours late!!!! The problems are especially bad whenever a large number of trades are going thru as has been happening recently - just when you want the system up!

The data provider also has database problems which cause all manner of stalls in the other stuff I've written. They also offer no serious charting capability. Consequently I have the additional expense of having to buy a second feed (Updata).

I'd tell you the name of the feed I use for the sentiment indicator construction, but I really hate the bastards for letting me down time and time again. I have been with them for seven years and decided enough is enough. My contract ends at the end of the month and I will not be going back to them.

What will I do to plug the data gap? Let's just say it's a work in progress. Last week the front end of the data provider I'm leaving gave me so much trouble every spare second was taken up nursing it. Consequently I made no progress on feed migration. When I told said data provider I was entitled to free days for the hassle they'd caused they told me "sorry", despeite seven years of loyalty and helping them correct glitches in their data. I then got tough and threatened to bad mouth them on th enet. Did they care? Maybe they think any publicity is good publicity. They might be right.

If you really want the data providers name (along with all th efront end glitches, feed delays and programming excercises it will bring you) I'll PM you with it. I ain't advertising them to one and all.

Today's sentiment indicator

Edited by Sledgehead

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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