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Sisyphus

Us Cpi Higher Than Expected

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Well generally higher rates send stock markets down - cost of debt repayment is higher.

Of course there are many of factors, exchange rate affects being key ones.

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How does this effect the markets?

FTSE100 currently suddenly down 50

other stock markets (including footsie) will drop in anticipation of losses in US stocks when NY opens.

fortunately UK house prices don't correlate to US real estate...

much B)

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Guest Riser

Dow futures down 56 pts for the open, if it continues to fall it could signal another 100+ fall on the FTSE

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But I thought the reason for recent ftse falls was the weak dollar. This should strengthen the dollar.

FTSE100 currently down 75

Good job I'm not a trader.

Nothing seems to strengthen the dollar anymore :blink: Meanwhile the £ continues to rise against most currencies. Damned if I can see why the FX markets value the £ so highly :o

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Nothing seems to strengthen the dollar anymore Meanwhile the £ continues to rise against most currencies. Damned if I can see why the FX markets value the £ so highly

I have been wondering this and have the following conclusions:

- The have to value some currencies, ie the money has to go somewhere. Oz is higher thanks to a mineral boom but this could fade at any point, China and Asia because of exporting but if US crashes so does this. Euro zone has little to no growth and this dosen't look likely to change in the short to medium turn. We all know about the problems in the US. South America is undergoing nationalistic popularism which dosen't encourage investment. What's left? Japan, Canada & the UK. All have seen their currencies rise.

- UK still has oil. We are going into decline on it and are now importing oil, but we still have a decent amount left. This increases the value of the £.

- The markets still believe in the "miracle economy" whereby everyone gets rich by selling houses to each other.

I am still amazed at the rate against the US. Everything is massivly cheaper in the US how this differential is supported I have no idea.

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other stock markets (including footsie) will drop in anticipation of losses in US stocks when NY opens.

fortunately UK house prices don't correlate to US real estate...

much B)

"Much?" Not so sure. I lived through the last three HPCs, the mid 70's oil induced crash, the Big Crash (early 80's) and the Great Crash (1989-96). I also moved a lot between the US and the UK and found that our craahses co-incided on each occasion and by a similar magnitude compared with California at least where I have lived off and on.

The upcoming crash in California looks much like the UK once again. House prices are down about 3% so far but strains are being felt in ther market due to affordability, dissappearance of investors, wages not keeping up with prices and borrowing requirements well above 5 times average income. The extensive use of IO mortgages and MEW commonplace. Personal debt in the US is virtually identical to the UK adjusted for population size and exchange rate. The same arguments against a crash are being put forward: its different this time, immigration and high employment.

I am wondering what the next crash is going to be called to distinguish it from the Big Crash of the 80's and the Great Crash of the late 80's-mid nineties? :blink:

FTSE down 134 :o

I was 80% cash I might just go 100% for a few months!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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