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Immigration Or Bust?

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This paper is from the LSE (london school of economics), Nov 04. Interesting to see serious academic opinion on this matter, free from any obvious political spin (you all know the three letter acronym I am referring to here....)

This is the sort of analysis which will be informing government opinion on pensions and immigration, and makes for interesting reading. It is straightforward in its approach in my opinion, and unburdened by any vested interest from my reading.

Immigration or bust?

Apologies for such a mega long post. Key message is:

"If the next generation is smaller in

number than the current generation, the current generation has to:

● accept a cut in its real pensions (either relative to prices or to wages) or

● contribute more whilst in work or

● work harder or

● work longer and retire later or

● accept more immigration. "

And we are effectively in a bidding war with other European countries to prop up our pension systems by bringing in bodies from abroad. The UK government are getting a head start on this by throwing the doors open early, welcoming everyone.

"Many continental European countries are in a more serious position than the UK since they are

ageing more rapidly and tend to have more generous state pensions. Germany, for example, will need

at least three million immigrants a year and Italy at least two million to sustain their pension systems

(United Nations (2000b)).

18

Some commentators predict a turbulent future: ‘The demographics of the next 30 years may be

written in our stars, but the agequake will still come as an enormous shock when it erupts in earnest.

Around 2020, tremours will give way to shockwaves. The agequake will hit Richter nine, shaking

western economies to their foundations’"

So, buying property now is a bet that we will be successful in attracting highly qualified individuals who can contribute to the income of the UK in a significant manner. Obviously such people are in short supply. Will they favour the UK as a destination? If not, we could be headed for economic meltdown. If we can attract the right workers, the status quo in the UK may be maintained. I'm not sure that we have had a good start on this so far.

Some interesting snippets:

"Abstract: As a result of population ageing and declining fertility, the UK state pension

system is unlikely to remain viable in the very long run without a steady inflow of

young immigrant workers from abroad. However, with prudent economic

management and continuing economic growth, immigration requirements can be

contained and modest real increases in pensions are a possibility. Beyond 2020,

further ageing of the population will lead to fiscal pressures and the need for remedial

measures such as the raising of the state pension age. Higher economic activity rates

among older people, including deferred retirement, will to some extent ameliorate but

not eliminate these pressures. If fertility picks up over the next few years, this will

also help, but not until after 2030. Without favourable economic growth, the fiscal

problems will appear much sooner and could lead to cuts in pensions or to

significantly higher contribution rates."

"Ceteris paribus, the supply of labour will fall relative to capital which, in turn, will

raise wages relative to interest rates (the return on capital). This will encourage a

substitution away from labour towards capital in the production process. The resulting

capital creation (i.e., investment financed by borrowing or equity issuance) will

increase capital per worker and hence increase labour productivity."

Perhaps someone should mention this to Gordon:

"Current Government policy is to link increases in the state pension to consumer prices

but our work shows that full restoration of the link with real wages could lead to

severe fiscal problems."

"We also anticipate that after 2020 pressures for a significant expansion in immigration will increase to unrealistic and unsustainable levels."

"Immigration can also be used to sustain a country’s fiscal policy"

"These scenarios suggest that increases in the state pension age after 2020 look more

likely than not. The alternative, in the absence of any other policy changes, would be

substantial and unrealistic increases in immigration."

Not sure if we are getting the following bit right:

"A key assumption underlying the above calculation is that the immigration is

demand-led and brings in qualified immigrants with needed skills.

This is the policy followed by countries such as Australia and the US and is one that has

been successful in maintaining a high degree of social cohesion in a way that

an influx of low-skilled immigrants who would be competing in the labour

market with the incumbent workforce might not be."

Here's a bit for Brainclamp:

"The impact of immigration on domestic wages also needs to be considered.

Estimates from the US suggest that ‘an immigrant influx that increases the

supply of workers in a particular schooling-experience group by 10% lowers

the wages of natives in that group by 3 to 4 % and reduces weeks worked by 2

to 3 %’ . "

"Coleman (2002, p583) continues: ‘Although immigration can prevent population decline, it is already

well known that it can only prevent population ageing at unprecedented,

unsustainable and increasing levels of inflow, which would generate rapid

population growth and eventually displace the original population from its

majority position’."

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Key message is:

"If the next generation is smaller in

number than the current generation, the current generation has to:

● accept a cut in its real pensions (either relative to prices or to wages) or

● contribute more whilst in work or

● work harder or

● work longer and retire later or

● accept more immigration. "

But immigration only postpones the problem - it does not address it. Immigrants will get old too and who will fund their pensions? It's called a pyramid or 'Ponzi' scheme and it only works while there are suckers at the bottom willing to fund those on top. Are they seriously proposing that the UK population grows indefinitely ? I haven't read that paper yet but the summary gives a rather simplistic impression.

The real solution is to switch to a largely contributory pension scheme so you pay for your own pension. The UK population should be scaled down too, IMHO. Unfortunately, Gordon 'Miracle' Brown is relying on an increasing population to feign economic growth.

Incidently, as posted elsewhere, a former Irish PM is advocating the 'retire later' option as the pressure on Irish housing is becoming too great;

16 May 2006

Working past 65 better for economy than immigration'

By Jim Morahan

FORMER Taoiseach Garret FitzGerald suggested yesterday it would be “much better” for the Irish economy if people worked until later in life rather than having immigrant workers, who need to be housed, coming in.

During a speech at the Equality Authority, the ex-Fine Gael leader spoke in the context of the large numbers of immigrant workers arriving here — all of whom need housing.

Launching Say No to Ageism Week, he said: “Given the shortage of Irish workers which, in recent years, has made necessary a very large number of immigrant workers to come into the country, all of them have to be housed.

The economy could benefit greatly if we could retain in the workforce, well beyond the age of 65, a larger proportion of people with experience and skills who are willing and able to go on working — if they want to do so — and who don’t need additional housing, because they’ve got a house already.

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But immigration only postpones the problem - it does not address it. Immigrants will get old too and who will fund their pensions? It's called a pyramid or 'Ponzi' scheme and it only works while there are suckers at the bottom willing to fund those on top. Are they seriously proposing that the UK population grows indefinitely ? I haven't read that paper yet but the summary gives a rather simplistic impression.

The real solution is to switch to a largely contributory pension scheme so you pay for your own pension. The UK population should be scaled down too, IMHO. Unfortunately, Gordon 'Miracle' Brown is relying on an increasing population to feign economic growth.

Incidently, as posted elsewhere, a former Irish PM is advocating the 'retire later' option as the pressure on Irish housing is becoming too great;

Absolutely spot on there Ciderpunk - it does make you wonder what planet these academic researchers and politicians are on doesn't it ? It so bloody obvious the approach we are taking is not sustainable - you can only push a snowball up a hill so far.

By bringing in a further 10 million immigrants over the next 25 years, which is the Governments target, then we will make living here even more sh!te.

We haven't got enough water in the S East without the need to make massive investments in the infrasrtucture, there won't be enough roads - so we'll have to build alot more - 30% more traffic is forecast over the next 20 years. And lets not go there on the amount of houses that will need to be built and also the natural increase in industrial buildings and offices. We know we are going to have an energy crisis and the Government is just building up an even greater crisis - morons.

Option 4 is the only sensible answer - work longer/harder - work smarter - think about the long term implications for the heart, soul and health of the nation, not just short term economics. Thats why I've converted to being a Nationalist (and I'm not mentioning the 3 letters I can't mention). The globalist agenda cannot be sustained and will lead to great social unrest. The day of reckoning is a coming, unfortunately it is at least 10 years away and I fear the damage is already done to this country. We'll just have to ride out the storm when it finally arrives, which it surely will. We've been sold down the river by at least the last 25 years of Governments of all shades.

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Yes exactly a pyramid or 'Ponzi' scheme and it can't possibly work, just delay the inevitable until later, by which time a civil war is guaranteed. And fck the environment and fck the animal kingdom and fck the planet too.

We should all be familiar with this typical NU LAbour crap as that is how the housing market has been artificially sustained.

Not sustainable government AT ALL, only about maintaining votes at ALL costs.

GET THESE NU LABOUR IDIOTS OUT!!

Edited by Randall Herbert

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But immigration only postpones the problem - it does not address it. Immigrants will get old too and who will fund their pensions? It's called a pyramid or 'Ponzi' scheme and it only works while there are suckers at the bottom willing to fund those on top. Are they seriously proposing that the UK population grows indefinitely ? I haven't read that paper yet but the summary gives a rather simplistic impression.

The real solution is to switch to a largely contributory pension scheme so you pay for your own pension. The UK population should be scaled down too, IMHO. Unfortunately, Gordon 'Miracle' Brown is relying on an increasing population to feign economic growth.

Incidently, as posted elsewhere, a former Irish PM is advocating the 'retire later' option as the pressure on Irish housing is becoming too great;

You are right to say it is mere postponement - and the paper does discuss that fact. Will politicians ever actually openly address the issue, or is it a can of worms they daren't open?

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You are right to say it is mere postponement - and the paper does discuss that fact. Will politicians ever actually openly address the issue, or is it a can of worms they daren't open?

Nobody gives a flying fck for any consequences outside their own lifespan. Its all about vote winning and recieving as many 'Tessa's' in brown paper envelopes as possible.

Hence the planet is fcked.....

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You are right to say it is mere postponement - and the paper does discuss that fact. Will politicians ever actually openly address the issue, or is it a can of worms they daren't open?

No they won't, none of the parties seem to be able to take really tough decisions for the country. However, if you want to blow loads of our cash on a stupid ID card scheme and then being told you have to work longer because there's no money, these are the men to run the show.

The British public seem to be in a complete political stupor recently, I would guess that only when they are faced with a really tough economic situation is when they will wake up and demand more from their servants (they shouldn't be our masters!).

And no, the BNP will not make matters any better.

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We haven't got enough water in the S East without the need to make massive investments in the infrasrtucture, there won't be enough roads - so we'll have to build alot more - 30% more traffic is forecast over the next 20 years. And lets not go there on the amount of houses that will need to be built and also the natural increase in industrial buildings and offices. We know we are going to have an energy crisis and the Government is just building up an even greater crisis - morons.

Option 4 is the only sensible answer - work longer/harder - work smarter - think about the long term implications for the heart, soul and health of the nation, not just short term economics.

What part can house prices play in this problem. What if you increase the population by a large proportion, whilst leaving the housing stock as it stands (give or take the few thousand homes Ruth Kelly has pledged to build)?

Is this the plan to solve the pensions crisis? The boomer generation, mostly sitting on family homes, can downsize if prices are maintained at current levels, and use the extra cash to pay for their retirement.

If we can't maintain house prices by continuing economic success, is it possible to do so by sheer force of numbers? That boomer family house could be shared by 2 families in the future, thus making it affordable to each of them, maintaining high house prices, and funding the pensions crisis.

Of course this would a temporary solution, and quality of life would decline markedly, but it would solve the problem for the boomer generation (of which, don't forget, our government, and most politicians, and a huge and influential swathe of voters are part).

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Thats why I've converted to being a Nationalist (and I'm not mentioning the 3 letters I can't mention). The globalist agenda cannot be sustained and will lead to great social unrest. The day of reckoning is a coming, unfortunately it is at least 10 years away and I fear the damage is already done to this country.

You're only saying what most people I know are thinking. People who wouldn't have dreamed of saying it before, but drip, by drip, by drip are just getting pig sick of uncontrolled and couldnt-give-a-toss-about immigration policies by the Home Office - as well as peoples' real fears being ignored, pooh-poohed and condescended to by mainstream politicians.

The 3 letter party whose name dared not be spoken is starting to tick a few boxes for me anyway. Whether I'd actually vote for them is another matter, but the main parties deffo need a kick up the ar*se about this, it aint going away.

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But we have been letting immigrants flood in for the longest time now and many parts of the country have been taken over and yet the UK still goes down the pan. Maybe it’s the medicine that is killing the country or is it just VI that come out with any crap they can to ensure that wages are forced down.

i will continue to vote BNP with pride untill something is done about this :)

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It's unfortunate that any discussion of this topic turns to one political party. I don't think there is any possibility, ever, of the BNP forming a government or even of being influential (thank God).

People who would even consider voting for them seem to miss the fact that their policies are born of hatred, and that hatred can be directed at anyone or anything. At the moment it is directed at immigrants, but tomorrow what will it be? The disabled and sick who are such a drain on the public purse? Homosexuals, gypsies? Be careful what you wish for.

If the immigration situation becomes a genuine problem it will be a vote winner, and the mainstream parties will do what it takes to win votes.

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The whole business of needing to take immigrants to prop up the economy is a direct result of people in this country failing to have children, in order to pursue a life of greed and self indulgence.

As ye (don’t) sow, so shall ye reap

Either start breeding or shut up about immigrants. I have worked hard to bring up three children. I know many coupes who have taken the easy way out. They have no children and are now bleating about immigration. ITS THEIR OWN FAULT

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what with me having taxes to pay (to keep the thousands of workshy indigenous peoples happily in benefits) I cannot be bothered to engage with the vultures on this thread, so let me just say this

http://www.searchlightmagazine.com/

Are you classing everyone on this thread as a "vulture"? For someone who is apparently against discrimination that seems a bit unfair.

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Of course if people weren't having to spend so much of their income on servicing the interest payments on their ridiculous mortgages then a proportion of the money saved could be used to make pension provisions.

To think that in 40 or 50 years time immigrants will want to fund our pensions is also one hell of an arogant assumption to make. They will have massive electoral power by then in line with their increased numbers. What's to stop them voting in a party which abandons the state pension altogether?

"Coleman (2002, p583) continues: ‘Although immigration can prevent population decline, it is already

well known that it can only prevent population ageing at unprecedented, unsustainable and increasing levels of inflow, which would generate rapid population growth and eventually displace the original population from its majority position’."

Have we become so efete and decadent that we would even consider such a scenario as a solution to our pensions problem?

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Are you classing everyone on this thread as a "vulture"? For someone who is apparently against discrimination that seems a bit unfair.

no of course I'm not - and you'd be right to be offended if I had included you in that comment. But I don't think that I gave that impression, and I certainly didn't mean to.

nor am I against discrimination - for example, I can discriminate between the vampires and the humans on this thread. You being the latter. :)

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Why not:

Help decent working types to have bigger families (e.g. better child benefit, better tax arrangements etc)

Encourage productivity and investment in workers

Let people work longer on more flexible hours

and

Let crap industries that employ v cheap labour go the wall - we don't need such jobs

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Nature has ways and means of dealing with population control. AIDS in Africa (now spreading to India and China) and a possible repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu when the mutation process of the HN51 virus is complete.

http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article/artic...735375891169338

Warning Issued That Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated Into Highly Contagious

May 15, 2006 2:27 PM

FULLERTON, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 05/15/06 --

The recent news over the last few days of confirmed ''clusters'' being reported in Indonesia is posing the grim reality that the bird flu virus may have now mutated into a form that can be easily passed among humans. The current fatality rate for this particular strain of the H5N1 virus is 78% and appears to be somewhat Tamiflu resistant, which is different from the strain found in Turkey.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Six-more-...7545382473.html

The WHO has sent a team to the area near Medan. The agency said it was on alert for signs the virus is mutating into one that can be easily transmitted between people, a development that could signal the start of a pandemic in which millions could die.
Such a mutation could occur anywhere there is bird flu, the WHO says.
The latest deaths bring the number of Indonesians who have died from bird flu to 30, by far
the highest death rate in the world this year from the disease.
Bird flu has killed 115 people worldwide, the majority in east Asia,
since reappearing in 2003
. Virtually all the victims caught the disease from poultry.
The H5N1 virus is endemic in much of Indonesia.

http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7930

It appears that we may have efficient human to human transmition going on in Indonesia. I am also seeing on Google that any links to the Indonesian articles have been redirected to other stories. We may be experiencing a temporary coverup as the Pandemic may have begun!

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Why not:

Help decent working types to have bigger families (e.g. better child benefit, better tax arrangements etc)

Encourage productivity and investment in workers

Let people work longer on more flexible hours

and

Let crap industries that employ v cheap labour go the wall - we don't need such jobs

These are the great unanswered questions of our time. Ministers seem to spend all their time lurching from one small scale disaster to another rather than engaging in coherent thought.

Are they victims of the non-jobs culture as well? Doing nothing of any importance can really take up a lot of your day if you aren't careful.

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I believe there is a "Green" view that the UK should attempt to get back to a population size more able to live a more sustainable lifestyle from resources and production here.

I seem to remember about 40 million as being the size.

That would mean not attempting to counter the "boomer" problem presumably, just ride it out.

However a smaller population, living perhaps, a lifestyle more insulated from the rest of the World would be a country of less importance in World affairs.

Politicians don't like less important, do they?

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Of those mythical millions of immigrants to come, how many of those people are actually capable?

And, if they are so competent, what stops them from making their home country a success?

And, if the people who come really are middle class, how will their home countries change as only the chavs are left back home?

Immigration really smacks of old-stye colonialism, instead of assests being removed from poor countries, this time their best people are skimmed off. :angry:

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I believe there is a "Green" view that the UK should attempt to get back to a population size more able to live a more sustainable lifestyle from resources and production here.

I seem to remember about 40 million as being the size.

That would mean not attempting to counter the "boomer" problem presumably, just ride it out.

However a smaller population, living perhaps, a lifestyle more insulated from the rest of the World would be a country of less importance in World affairs.

Politicians don't like less important, do they?

Yes, our self important politicians seem determined to go the other way. I daresay you could live out the sustainable dream in some other european countries - maybe Italy, Spain, Greece?

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One of the questions that should be a matter of urgent public debate is the desirability of our public health system making the promotion of longevity as its number one goal.

This goal has been pursued with increasing vigour over the last 50 years but has never seriously been questioned.

What good is it to society having people live longer and longer if there is no willingness to pay for it? Shouldn't we instead see the current public health bugbears of smoking, drinking, and junk food as having important roles to play in keeping the overall demographic distribution healthy? It sounds daft but I'm serious.

Is a public health system unrationed and free at the point of use sustainable once a tipping point is reached where the bulge demographic cohorts pass from being net contributors to the public purse to net beneficiaries of it and high public health users to boot? The answer is not without huge tax rises and not without shifting the tax burden further onto the shoulders of our screwed generation that has been loaded up with education debt, priced out of the housing market and locked out of decent pensions.

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There are 6 million economically inactive in the UK. We all know disabled people who work so being disabled does not = cant work. I grew up on a council estate. The vast majority claiming incapacity benefit had slight limps, bad backs (lots of people have bad backs yet work) or made up phobia's.

Lets get some of these working and stop the drain on Tax resources so Tax payers pay less Tax so they can invest more.

Scandanavian nations have prospered with small populations.

The leftist 'consensus' uses the pension scare story as a cunning ruse to increase immigration as the leftist consensus want nothing less than total multi - racial harmonised bliss.

My children's homework books (Oxford learning tree) are an example of the hiiden leftist conspiracy that controls the BBC and Brittish education.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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