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crash-and-burn

Crash Soon Or I'm Outta Here!

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I must have come across this website 3 or 4 months ago, and keep dropping in as there seems to be a lot of hopeful folk all waiting for the same thing - affordable homes!

I'm in my very late 20's, make an average to slightly better than average salary but am naive about financial matters, yet have been wise enough not to be tempted onto the housing market. I'm sure I could if I wanted to, but would be seriously depressed if I made that choice only to see a significant change in the housing market.

I'm currently renting and sharing a 2 bedroomed terraced house at £300 a month, which is giving me a great opportunity to continue saving, and whilst it's not where I want to be living, I'm happy to endure it for a while and save for myself rather than paying interest, mortgage and all the rest of it, however I'm starting to get a little restless here.

I was reading an article tonight on MoneyWeek, posted in September 2004 - "Will there be a housing crash? Yes – and soon" (http://www.moneyweek.com/file/2162/housing-crash.html)

I have to say I'm bewildered by all information available, some of it seems to be wishful thinking, some of it seems to be commonsense, some is propaganda and some baltantly biased - it's really hard to see through the BS to get a "clear" (I should say 'clearer') picture. My commonsense (the little I possess) believes in the cyclic nature of things, so whilst I know little about economies and markets, I recognise patterns in history and know things are destined to be repeated. I also see the influx of property programmes which have dominated TV for the past 2 or 3 years, a sure sign of desperation and crisis in the property business. And why is it, whenever I catch shows like 'move to the country' (or whatever it's called), they seem to select buyer's who have huge budgets - is it to rub our faces in it? Or you see these other shows where people buy up second homes abroad - wouldn't one home be nice! My girlfriend's French and there's a lot of Brits living over there now - where her parents live in the country, half the town is British, and a British couple bought their countryhouse (that they could not afford to keep for themselves) just a few months ago. I think a lot of locals in these European countries are resentful of the British too, because whilst their property prices seem better value to us, they are struggling to get onto the housing market themselves. I can see it from both sides of the fence, though I think buying up multple properties as holiday resorts is morally questionable - but hey, we live in a capitalist nation, so it's all game... Sorry, it's late, I'm tired and I'm waffling!...

How long do people think it will take for change to arrive? Are we on the precipice right now?

I love England; whilst certain cultural elements seem to be regressive (I'm no snob, but since moving to the north of the country I've seen a 50% increase in chavs), there is still much I love about this place - it's one of the most beautiful places in the world and I would be very sad to leave, but when I see what is available in Europe and elsewhere in the world, I am seriously considering leaving this overcrowded island behind and taking a life elsewhere so I don't spend the rest of my life worried about paying off a large mortgage.

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There will never be a property crash and even assuming there was a crash the most that house prices will fall by is 10%.

Things really are different this time. The recent emergence of the BTL landlord will view any falls in house prices as an opportunity to buy back into the property market which will prevent any sharp falls in house prices and force house prices back up.

We now live in an era of low global inflation and low interest rates and there is nothing that will bring house prices down.

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There will never be a property crash and even assuming there was a crash the most that house prices will fall by is 10%.

Things really are different this time. The recent emergence of the BTL landlord will view any falls in house prices as an opportunity to buy back into the property market which will prevent any sharp falls in house prices and force house prices back up.

We now live in an era of low global inflation and low interest rates and there is nothing that will bring house prices down.

Interest rates and inflation are rising virtually everywhere (UK soon as well). BTL rental earnings cannot satisfy even the cost of an interest only mortgage and there is minimal or negative capital growth. Who put the magic 10% cap on losses? There was no cap on rises. ;) You are talking out of your ****!

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Alot of what you say rings true for me. I think you can learn alot about the way the economy works/has been working/might work in the future, but never forget to take a lot of what you read - both here and by "reknowned" economists with a large wheelbarrow of salt. ANYONE that thinks they can accurately predict the future based on past events should not be listed to. The only people worth listening to are the ones who admit that past events are no predictors to future events and that no one can know whats really going to happen and when. All we can really listen to is threads of thought - i.e. that house prices seem massively overvalued and affordability is completely stretched for most people. Again, it comes back to the common sense thing - if you are on a reasonable wage, then others on a reasonable wage, or less than a reasonable wage are in the same boat.

PErsonally it sounds like you are in a good situation to me - living cheaply and saving hard. I'm trying to do the same. It's a struggle but the main thing is, we will all want our own places at some point, be that here, France, the US for me (my wife is American) or Timbuktu, and cash is king - the more you have for your deposit, the less of a financial risk you will be seen to carry, the more preferential rates you may receive, and the lower you monthly mortgage payments.

People have been saying there should be a crash any day now for years. I think to hang on trying to predict where property will go will be soul destroying so i try not to do it, but i still check what the market is doing daily, i'm as guilty as the rest. At the end of the day though, we must all live our lives and there is only so much of this whole thing i'm prepared to let consume my day to day life. You just have to get on with it and not let it get to you too much, really, that's the way i look at things.

But keep saving, and eventually time will tell you decide to end up settling, and those sorts of decisions will be easier to figure out as and when you are in a position to make them.

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There will never be a property crash and even assuming there was a crash the most that house prices will fall by is 10%.

Things really are different this time. The recent emergence of the BTL landlord will view any falls in house prices as an opportunity to buy back into the property market which will prevent any sharp falls in house prices and force house prices back up.

We now live in an era of low global inflation and low interest rates and there is nothing that will bring house prices down.

There is analysis, there is opinion, and then there is pure hope.

The above slots rather neatly into the catagory of pure hope...

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Guest Winners and Losers

I actually thought it slotted rather neatly into the 'tedious repetitive bullcrap from a loser with no friends and an umbrella up his @ss' category...

:lol:

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I actually thought it slotted rather neatly into the 'tedious repetitive bullcrap from a loser with no friends and an umbrella up his @ss' category...

That's what makes his hair stand on end :lol:

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is there an explaination then for the mentality of people who come on this forum and complain about there not being a crash?

if you can afford a house and you don't believe there will be a crash then buy a house, it's the only logical course of action for you. lot's of luck to you and all that but your decision is not going to affect the millions out ther who either cannot afford to buy or simply believe as strongly as they can that there will be a crash.

i agree that while there is this distinction between those who treat HPC as an inevitability and are staking their own medium term financial futures on it and those (like myself) who cannot afford to buy at current prices and are not prepared to spend 25 years paying out 75% of their incomes on what amounts to renting a house from a bank, but it's not a club and it's not a religion. if you 'believe' in an HPC and it doesn't happen you haven't been let down by this website and those who post here any more than you have been 'let down' by a bank or estate agent if you buy a house at the top of the cycle and lose a considerable sum of cash on it.

you have to make your own way in this world, and if property ownership will make you happy then you know what you have to do. personally i feel that happiness is not a function of material goods and that real wealth is accumulated in the heart, but then again i use some of the money i save every month by not having a stupid mortgage to buy marijuana... ;)

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Jonathan trees

you obviously don't beleive what you just posted or you're stupid!

There are many places in the UK where today you can buy properties 10% lower than the peak this time arround. This thing has only just got started.

Parking streched fundimentals for a moment. The fact that Osama has stated the best weapon against the US (and other western oil importers) is Oil at Circa $100 a barrel. And he has the organisation to make that happen, is goint to be a key factor. If oil over the next two years averages above $75 dollars per barrel (irespective of central banks playing with interest rates) we will see up to 50% come off some property in the UK, Spain and the US.

get real and get rid of property to pay down debt!

Pablo Silver or Lead.

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There will never be a property crash and even assuming there was a crash the most that house prices will fall by is 10%.

Things really are different this time. The recent emergence of the BTL landlord will view any falls in house prices as an opportunity to buy back into the property market which will prevent any sharp falls in house prices and force house prices back up.

what a stupid point. BTLers that are relying on captial appreciation because the rents don't even cover their mortgages are going to buy up property when it is falling in value and the chance of any capital appreciation has disappeared. Get that man some coffee!

We now live in an era of low global inflation and low interest rates and there is nothing that will bring house prices down.

Right. Are you aware that US rates have gone 1%-5% in under 18 months and they still haven't got inflation under control, therefore rates are likely to go higher?? And that the resulting increases in IRs is sending the housing market there into collapse as we speak?

Thought not.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
We now live in an era of low global inflation and low interest rates and there is nothing that will bring house prices down.

I think you mean "lived". Nothing lasts forever.

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what a stupid point. BTLers that are relying on captial appreciation because the rents don't even cover their mortgages are going to buy up property when it is falling in value and the chance of any capital appreciation has disappeared. Get that man some coffee!

Right. Are you aware that US rates have gone 1%-5% in under 18 months and they still haven't got inflation under control, therefore rates are likely to go higher?? And that the resulting increases in IRs is sending the housing market there into collapse as we speak?

Thought not.

why dont they just stop printing money?

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There will never be a property crash and even assuming there was a crash the most that house prices will fall by is 10%.

Things really are different this time. The recent emergence of the BTL landlord will view any falls in house prices as an opportunity to buy back into the property market which will prevent any sharp falls in house prices and force house prices back up.

We now live in an era of low global inflation and low interest rates and there is nothing that will bring house prices down.

lol. Man/Woman why don't you just add a sig link about your profession as an EA, BTL or whatever? Make things more transparent.

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starting to feel the same way about this country.

although i'd say its about 70% chav and high streets are nearly 55% charity or £1 buster shops

what happened to this lovely country ?

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starting to feel the same way about this country.

although i'd say its about 70% chav and high streets are nearly 55% charity or £1 buster shops

what happened to this lovely country ?

a few things tbh:

lack of national identity

celebrity worship culture i.e. materialistic

media conditioning

nanny state

buy now pay later mentality

lack of decent schooling

mcdonaldisation of society

falling standards in societal values

global shrinkage and dissemination of information

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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