Randall Herbert Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Aberdeen not quite the BTL boom town it was made out to be, lots must be bailing out by now, it is awash with rental properties after all. As we suspected houseprices are coming off the rails across Scotland, this very quiet BBC report paints a very different perspective from the VI messengers. Falls of up to 10% amost everywhere making their way into the stats. Where is that Troll who insisted that Aberdeen and Scotland was still booming??? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region12.stm Of course its all different this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjamin Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4773803.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 Why did houseprices come down in Scotland? Thats impossible? Houseprices don't go down, they only go up! We're in the new paradiddle are we not?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Alba is going to have kittens, kittens I tell ya! Why did houseprices come down in Scotland? Because the Phil & Krusty of Scotland, Justin and Colin, have stopped ramping the market - they are too busy getting sh*tfaced every weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Because the Phil & Krusty of Scotland, Justin and Colin, have stopped ramping the market - they are too busy getting sh*tfaced every weekend. I think that is correct if you take it literally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 I think that is correct if you take it literally. Sorry STF, I don't know which one is the taker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Some pretty sharp falls, even bigger than my area which saw 8.2% down in the last Q. I wonder if RICS and the other VIs are still saying a surge of interest by FTBs is keeping house prices bouyant? Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162 Warwick £321,358 -7.4% -7.0% 129 North Warwickshire £264,202 -3.4% -8.9% 55 Rugby £261,763 -6.7% -8.3% 118 Nuneaton And Bedworth £211,720 6.4% 3.5% 87 We are almost 100% awash in red ink. Local property rag arrived today and I see the first "price reduced" ads--they had been putting "new price" before. I don't know about anyone else but I feel a crash coming on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownbootcuts Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Aberdeen not quite the BTL boom town it was made out to be, lots must be bailing out by now, it is awash with rental properties after all. As we suspected houseprices are coming off the rails across Scotland, this very quiet BBC report paints a very different perspective from the VI messengers. Falls of up to 10% amost everywhere making their way into the stats. Where is that Troll who insisted that Aberdeen and Scotland was still booming??? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region12.stm Of course its all different this time. Im in Aberdeen and have been saying for quite some time that the Aberdeen market is far from hot. Still plenty of movement in the sub 100k 1-2 bed flat sector but elsewhere things are not moving quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 This is on sales, and its for approvals in the winter months. Therefore you would expect a fall, it will pick pnext month, and 3Q which has the majority of the Scottish "spring boom" will show a large increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 This is on sales, and its for approvals in the winter months. Therefore you would expect a fall, it will pick pnext month, and 3Q which has the majority of the Scottish "spring boom" will show a large increase. WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! WAAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAA!!!!! Very well thought out. Anyway laugh like a mad man. Here are the ROS QOQ numbers and Annual HPI and the average per quarter. As you can see Q1 have an average of -0.4% where as Q3 (Spring bounce) has an average of 9.8% (Yep 9.8% for the quarter). Therefore, it doesn't take a genius to work out that 3Q06 will be strongly +'ve and 2Q06 will probably be mildluy +'ve. QoQ YoY2003 Q2 £90,768 2003 Q3 £102,177 12.6% 2003 Q4 £103,394 1.2% 2004 Q1 £106,932 3.4% 2004 Q2 £108,238 1.2% 19.2%2004 Q3 £118,141 9.1% 15.6%2004 Q4 £118,123 0.0% 14.2%2005 Q1 £115,283 -2.4% 7.8%2005 Q2 £117,626 2.0% 8.7%2005 Q3 £126,538 7.6% 7.1%2005 Q4 £125,934 -0.5% 6.6%2006 Q1 £124,481 -1.2% 8.0%Average Q1 -0.4% Average Q2 1.6% Average Q3 9.8% Average Q4 0.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roblpm Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 (edited) Are you sure "spring bounce" is Q3 not Q2??!!?? I suppose you are right as properties completing around now will not hit these figures until after the end of June. So you are right of course, just hope Q3 is not so good!!!! Anyway glad to see some Scottish interest! Edited May 16, 2006 by roblpm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolaftershave Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 An insiders view of the middlands... more falls! http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/mblifestyle/F2671566?thread=2991413 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 An insiders view of the middlands... more falls! http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/mblifestyle/F2671566?thread=2991413 EA admits "prices falling" and to "hold out". Should have a thread of its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 With the closure of the Peugeot plant in Ryton, this should have an impact on the property market here in Rugby. On the local news even brands like HP Sauce in Birmingham have shut up shop after nearly 100 years and are off-shoring their operations. We will end up being an economy that is almost entirely service based. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 Very well thought out. Anyway laugh like a mad man. Here are the ROS QOQ numbers and Annual HPI and the average per quarter. As you can see Q1 have an average of -0.4% where as Q3 (Spring bounce) has an average of 9.8% (Yep 9.8% for the quarter). Therefore, it doesn't take a genius to work out that 3Q06 will be strongly +'ve and 2Q06 will probably be mildluy +'ve. QoQ YoY2003 Q2 £90,768 2003 Q3 £102,177 12.6% 2003 Q4 £103,394 1.2% 2004 Q1 £106,932 3.4% 2004 Q2 £108,238 1.2% 19.2%2004 Q3 £118,141 9.1% 15.6%2004 Q4 £118,123 0.0% 14.2%2005 Q1 £115,283 -2.4% 7.8%2005 Q2 £117,626 2.0% 8.7%2005 Q3 £126,538 7.6% 7.1%2005 Q4 £125,934 -0.5% 6.6%2006 Q1 £124,481 -1.2% 8.0%Average Q1 -0.4% Average Q2 1.6% Average Q3 9.8% Average Q4 0.7% Total utter Crap! You are trying to suggest that all future years behave as per the previous years for your dodgy average calculation??? Face it.... PRICES ARE FALLING!! Quarter 3 will be very much like a precious year..... Try 1989!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alba Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Prices falling in Aberdeen is absolutely NOT what I am finding on the ground. Every flat I am looking at is going for around 25% over the O/O price. I mentioned these stats to my solicitor and he cannot undertand where they are coming from as this is not what he is experiencing either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2005 Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 My area is showing -8.1 over the year and.............. -26% for detached houses over the year (100 sales) -26% Think I will just wait a little longer until people start to see the prices and begin to panic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 Prices falling in Aberdeen is absolutely NOT what I am finding on the ground. Every flat I am looking at is going for around 25% over the O/O price. I mentioned these stats to my solicitor and he cannot undertand where they are coming from as this is not what he is experiencing either. Alba, sell your BTL portfolio before its too late hen... Prices are falling, did you expect them to keep going up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownbootcuts Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Prices falling in Aberdeen is absolutely NOT what I am finding on the ground. Every flat I am looking at is going for around 25% over the O/O price. I mentioned these stats to my solicitor and he cannot undertand where they are coming from as this is not what he is experiencing either. Your solicitor is treating you as any person would when they expect to make some money from you. When you speak to solicitors in Aberdeen outwith the job they paint a different picture to the one you are being drawn. 1-2 bedrooms under 100k are showing movement because some people believe they need to rush in and get on the ladder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 Shouldn't be long until a few of the Bubble estate agents in Aberdeen close as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alba Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Quite honestly and sincerely this is not what I am finding. I am on to my 14th offer and still no success. This is not for properties under £100k as you suggest. I am continuously finding sellers who have bought their property from 6 to 14 months previously, and expecting and getting a mark up of £20K - £30K over what they paid for it. I am totally fed up of the Aberdeen market, the sellers and their solicitors. I honestly wish that the market would swing back in favour of the buyer. I would like to see the Aberdeen solicitors having to work for their money and not treating you like something they stood on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtpj Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Sorry guys- anecdotal: colleague of mine sold modern family house in Banchory last week for £65000 over asking price. Prices high at moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badlad1967 Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Sorry guys- anecdotal: colleague of mine sold modern family house in Banchory last week for £65000 over asking price. Prices high at moment. Details please. Ta muchly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 Sorry guys- anecdotal: colleague of mine sold modern family house in Banchory last week for £65000 over asking price. Prices high at moment. Hmmm. Interesting first post. Was that after they dropped the price 20%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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