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enworb

How Long After Joining Hpc

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I joined hpc a little less than a year ago. The property market has panned out pretty much how I expected.

Having seen a few previously avid bears concerned that prices haven't tumbled as expected , I am just wondering how your views have changed since you joined, if at all.

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Guest Winners and Losers

I thought it would happen the very next day - of course. :rolleyes:

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I am expecting this to be a long drawn out affair. A combination of small drops in nominal prices, yoy, allied to inflation which will bring about a 25-30% drop in real house prices.

But it will take 4-5 years to play out............

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I am expecting this to be a long drawn out affair. A combination of small drops in nominal prices, yoy, allied to inflation which will bring about a 25-30% drop in real house prices.

But it will take 4-5 years to play out............

So to put it another way, not so much a crash but a prang :D

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I thought it would happen when the market conditions became right for a HPC instead of HPI...

I believe that is occuring now.

But...

I don't think the trough in the HPC will occur for another 2-4 years.....

- Pye

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I started to read this site in spring 2004 when I was about to buy a property in London, and despite of reading this site I was not convinced that a crash was imminent. So I completed the purchase and two years later my property is now worth 10% more. At least. Additionally I don't need to ask a landlord for permission for every little change in the property!

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I predict that house prices will correct in one of two situations.

First, when sanity returns to the market. Impossible to predict a time scale on this one.

Secondly, when the government allows hyperinflation, which will not take house prices with it. Again, impossible to predict.

The best we can do is keep a close eye on things and be very patient.

Billy Shears

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I started to read this site in spring 2004 when I was about to buy a property in London, and despite of reading this site I was not convinced that a crash was imminent. So I completed the purchase and two years later my property is now worth 10% more. At least. Additionally I don't need to ask a landlord for permission for every little change in the property!

Your property is only "worth" anything in pound notes when you sell it....up 'til then it's a matter of guesswork. Additionally:

I don't need to pay water rates

I don't need to pay maintenance charges

I don't need to pay buildings insurance

I don't need to pay for and arrange for services inspections

I don't need to fix defects to the property

I don't need to spend money to ensure that everything remains habitable

....my generous LL does all of these for me - including renting it to me for less than an IO mortgage if I were to attempt to buy a property of similar size in similar area.

Each to their own.

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I found this site just over a year ago, and i'm so glad I didn't buy. I'm far better off now. with wage inflation being the same as HPI, yet i've managed to save a larger deposit. I'm glad I didn't get suckered into buying a property I did not like!

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I discovered this site waaaaay back in the early days, 2003. Lurked a bit, posted a bit, now doing a combination of both.

I thought that the crash would be well underway by 2006, but I knew very little of economic matters and I must admit that this site has been quite an (ongoing) education.

Grew up during the last boom-crash so I have absolutely no doubt it is gonna happen again. I remember the hysteria of the herd and the utter finality of the collapse: nobody would touch property with a bargepole after that. Sentiment seemed to have changed over the course of a few short months.

I am presently reading the Freddie Harrison book , his theory seems plausible; a bottom of 2010 although I find it hard to believe there will be another buying frenzy during 2008 before the crash really kicks in.

It seems to me it should all collapse by next year, but I was wrong it 2003 so I guess he could be right.

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I started to read this site in spring 2004 when I was about to buy a property in London, and despite of reading this site I was not convinced that a crash was imminent. So I completed the purchase and two years later my property is now worth 10% more. At least. Additionally I don't need to ask a landlord for permission for every little change in the property!

I bought a btl last year which has increased more than 20%. Okay I spent 2%(really only 2%) changing the kitchen and bathroom but it just goes to prove that their are bargains out there. You've just got to look a bit further than your nose - and a lot further than hpc.co.uk

Good on yer Lion

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Guest Winners and Losers

I bought a btl last year which has increased more than 20%. Okay I spent 2%(really only 2%) changing the kitchen and bathroom but it just goes to prove that their are bargains out there. You've just got to look a bit further than your nose - and a lot further than hpc.co.uk

Good on yer Lion

:blink:

Blah, blah, blah

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I first came here in 2004 expected things to have started late 2005 (which I think they did), been a bit surprised by the figures for early 2006 but still things are very much on course.

My view was low single digit inflation for HP in 2005 with 0% or negative in 2006.

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I bought a btl last year which has increased more than 20%.

Yes and I've just seen Elvis in the Chip shop - yes Elvis - Honest :lol: and your BTL will probably have dropped by 40% when it's repossessed!

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I expected the market to stagnate from 2005 onwards as all the signs pointed to it in the market. As it panned out I joined over a year ago and prices according to the ODPM report have risen 8% since then.

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I first came here in 2004 expected things to have started late 2005 (which I think they did), been a bit surprised by the figures for early 2006 but still things are very much on course.

My view was low single digit inflation for HP in 2005 with 0% or negative in 2006.

Not much has happened in Berkshire in the last couple of years to make me think prices will drop.

Maybe next year....... :unsure:

But it is possible your prediction is spot on where you are so I agree you shouldn't buy an average property. Having said that, a below average property in need of TLC is something to consider wherever you live.

Yes and I've just seen Elvis in the Chip shop - yes Elvis - Honest :lol: and your BTL will probably have dropped by 40% when it's repossessed!

£130k for a 2 bed flat in a town centre in Berkshire.1 bed flat in the same conversion was bought this year for £145k.

Can you get me Elvis' autograph next time you see him :lol:

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Guest Winners and Losers

Can you get me Elvis' autograph next time you see him :lol:

Jeez, you're starting to rival TTRTR. :rolleyes:

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I personally believe in my area the peak was summer 2004. Asking prices are being eroded slowly but surely since then.

My neighbour struggled to sell in 2004 - some 2 years later the house is still on the market. I real terms he is asking £5k less adjusted for inflation and still no takers. Prices are definately heading south in my opinion.

The crash is moving slowly but may accelerate if the bad news snowball gains momentum.

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I joined hpc a little less than a year ago. The property market has panned out pretty much how I expected.

Having seen a few previously avid bears concerned that prices haven't tumbled as expected , I am just wondering how your views have changed since you joined, if at all.

I remember reading the very first post on this website in September 2003! I reliased then that I was not the only person in th work that the housing boom was madness. Did anyone every have a drink with that guy?

I thought that we would have been in free fall by summer 2004, but sadly prices has increased 25% around here since then. I guess there is still too much cheap money.

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:blink:

Blah, blah, blah

Good informative post :blink:

I joined hpc a little less than a year ago. The property market has panned out pretty much how I expected.

Having seen a few previously avid bears concerned that prices haven't tumbled as expected , I am just wondering how your views have changed since you joined, if at all.

Unfortunately I was a little late and it had already started. (but I knew it would 2 years earlier, honest)

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Good informative post :blink:

Unfortunately I was a little late and it had already started. (but I knew it would 2 years earlier, honest)

That is some serious posting in 1 month. Are you unemployed or slacking at work...like me :lol:

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Additionally I don't need to ask a landlord for permission for every little change in the property!

That's funny, I enjoy asking my landlady to make changes in my property because it doesn't cost me anything :P

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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