Immigrants Effect On House Prices

[DICKDASTARDLY]

Have been reading several threads on here claiming that the influx of Immigrants would have had an effect on pushing house prices up. Would this really be the case, unless they are coming in armed with huge deposits and all have well paid jobs (not minimum wage) I would have thaught they would be looking at cheapest possible rented options for housing so they can send as much money home as possible ???

[benjamin]

some are coming in just armed, by all accounts

[Pete95]

I would have thaught they would be looking at cheapest possible rented options for housing so they can send as much money home as possible ???

If they rent houses, or get housing provided by the local authority they still increasing demand for housing, which in turn pushes up rents and prices.

And Im not sure about the "sending home as much money as possible" - I think most just send for their relatives to come and join them..

Immigration is of course a major factor on house prices, but its politically incorrect to say this

[get real]

R4 "in Business" last Sunday night was fairly interesting, link to listen again

Britain's Polish workforce has increased greatly in the two years since Poland joined the European Union. It's estimated that nearly 350 000 Poles have come to the UK since 2004.

Peter Day speaks to members of this new army of workers, and asks them what they find attractive about Britain, and what they want to achieve whilst they're here.

A couple of banks were featured on the programme, as they are running recruitment drives specifically to get Polish speakers on their staff, and have found business with the polish community increase dramatically as a result. It's a myth that all Eastern European workers will be in Pizza Hut or on the building sites. They may start there, but many are staying beyond the 3-12 months they had originally intended, because they are finding (compared to 20% unemployment in their home country) that the UK is a land of opportunity, and are rapidly moving from their unskilled and low-paid foothold employment into careers with prospects. They are hungry for hard work and opportunity and many will do well.

Seriously, the progs worth a listen if anyone's interested.

[in2perspective]

Immigration key to low inflation and interest rates (therefore significant factor in house price inflation)

The effect immigration has had on inflation is considerable. Ernst and Young believe interest rates are 0.5% lower than they would be if we hadnt had net migration over the last few years. They believe the effect will grow to 1%. So without the influx of immigrants into low paid jobs over recent years rates would be 5-5.5%.

We wrote about this in an article published on In2Perspective yesterday.

http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/05/i...erest-rates.jsp

The calls of the left (Respect etc.) for better wages and employment rights and on the right (BNP) for booting out the immigrants - ironically would both have the same effects...an increase in inflation therefore interest rates. This would severely damage the economy and house prices would fall.

[OzzMosiz]

This would severely damage the economy and house prices would fall.

If house prices were lower, more people would have more disposable income to keep the economy going.

If house prices do fall, there will be temporary pain. In the long run it will benefit everyone. Businesses will

have cheaper rents, and people will have more income to actually buy things rather than indebt themselves.

[Smell the Fear]

If they rent houses, or get housing provided by the local authority they still increasing demand for housing, which in turn pushes up rents and prices.

Immigration is of course a major factor on house prices, but its politically incorrect to say this

In my experience, and that of a lot of others posting here, rents have not increased much (if at all) over the past few years. My rent is similar to what it was 5 years ago, and for a much superior property.

Arguably it has pushed up demand from BTLers, who have bought properties to let out. There are so many of them that rents have not moved.

Does anyone know how much the UK population has increased by in the past 5 or 10 years?

[Solvent Celt]

Ernst and Young believe interest rates are 0.5% lower than they would be if we hadnt had net migration over the last few years. They believe the effect will grow to 1%. So without the influx of immigrants into low paid jobs over recent years rates would be 5-5.5%.

Oh so Ernst and Young "believe" that do they. Well fellow "Big Five" accountancy firm Andersons "believed" quite a few things about Enron and we all know how that turned out. Muppets.

Edited May 16, 2006 by Solvent Celt

[Realistbear]

There is some credibility in this. When I lived in California immigrants kept HPI going for awhile as they were willing to buy houses jointly with other family members or friends. When you split a house 4 ways it is instantly affordable assuming all work. MY guess is that Gordon will encourage more immigration as new EU members join to keep housing demand ahead of supply thereby underpinning high prices and the continuation of MEW to keep the economy flowing.

What has happened in California now is that, despite immigration from South America and Mexico, prices are falling due to lack of new jobs in the economy. The higher paid jobs are leaving for areas where the cost of lving is more reasonable. The UK may be different as there is nowhere to go in such a small country unless the emigration option is used--perhaps to Bulgaria?

Edited May 16, 2006 by Realistbear

[Viterbi]

The way I see things is that for every new immigrant there is a new BNP voter. Immigrants would prefer not to live in a ward represented by a BNP councillor. I previously mentioned that BTL landlords would prefer to not to buy new houses in areas represented by BNP councillors.

[Waitingforthesun]

Have been reading several threads on here claiming that the influx of Immigrants would have had an effect on pushing house prices up.

In everything country, at every time period of History, when there are problems, people need to find a scapegoat: a simple, easy to belive reason for all our problems. Usually, the designated scapegoat is a ethnic minority living in the country: the STRANGERS.

Concerning real-estate, in every country where there has been a boom price out poor, middle-class FTB, the "STRANGERS" has been blamed. In France, people say housing is expensive because British are bying everyting. In Marocco, people say housing is expensive because French are bying everyting. In UK, In Marocco, people say housing is expensive because Irish and Russian are bying everyting. In USA, people say housing is expensive because European are bying everyting...

Then people do not think about unstandibility of price, loosy monetary policies, land planning restrictions, relaxed lending criteria, or to the possibility of a HPC.

Racism is unfortunately very widespread, it is a pity that it could emerge in a country like UK, which was until now immune to right-wing extremists (compare to France, Germany, Austria, Poland...).

[Justice]

The way I see things is that for every new immigrant there is a new BNP voter. Immigrants would prefer not to live in a ward represented by a BNP councillor. I previously mentioned that BTL landlords would prefer to not to buy new houses in areas represented by BNP councillors.

Yes but look at the other side, I would like to live in an area where the councillors are representative of the local indigenous population and this includes people that don’t want to see the place flooded with immigrants and the associated problems this brings.

It’s called white flight and examples can be see on the outskirts of most cities and helps keep the status quo but you can bet our politicians will interfere and then wonder why the place goes up in flames one day.

[Viterbi]

Yes but look at the other side, I would like to live in an area where the councillors are representative of the local indigenous population and this includes people that don’t want to see the place flooded with immigrants and the associated problems this brings.

The medium to long term consequence is that the immigrants and ethnics will choose neighbourhoods not represented by the BNP and whites will move to neighbourhoods with BNP councillors. It is difficult to say if house prices in BNP represented wards will rise or fall compared to wards without BNP councillors, but most BTL investors would prefer to avoid BNP stomping grounds.

[warwickbloke]

The medium to long term consequence is that the immigrants and ethnics will choose neighbourhoods not represented by the BNP and whites will move to neighbourhoods with BNP councillors. It is difficult to say if house prices in BNP represented wards will rise or fall compared to wards without BNP councillors, but most BTL investors would prefer to avoid BNP stomping grounds.

So you actually think that our cities may in the future contain segregation areas due to ethnic origin.

Wouldn't have thought that would happen here in UK.

[Solvent Celt]

So you actually think that our cities may in the future contain segregation areas due to ethnic origin.

Wouldn't have thought that would happen here in UK.

Belfast - Peace line

Expect this in every city

[whiterabbit]

The medium to long term consequence is that the immigrants and ethnics will choose neighbourhoods not represented by the BNP and whites will move to neighbourhoods with BNP councillors. It is difficult to say if house prices in BNP represented wards will rise or fall compared to wards without BNP councillors, but most BTL investors would prefer to avoid BNP stomping grounds.

Lots of BTL investors won't rent to immigrants due to them not having job/bank/credit references and a greater risk of disappearing overnight. I would have thought slumlords would like immigrants but BTLs would stay in more affluent areas?

[Viterbi]

So you actually think that our cities may in the future contain segregation areas due to ethnic origin.

Wouldn't have thought that would happen here in UK.

They already do and have done so for at least 10 years - possibly 20 in some areas. You don't get physical barriers like in Belfast, but there are ghettos of both ethnics and whites in many towns and cities. Different ethnic groups like to cluster with their own type. It's natural human instinct. Stable multiracial communities are the dream of Hampstead style social liberals, but patchwork quilts are what result in practice.

[DabHand]

The effect immigration has had on inflation is considerable. Ernst and Young believe interest rates are 0.5% lower than they would be if we hadnt had net migration over the last few years. They believe the effect will grow to 1%.

FFS why doesn't it just say: Wages are 0.5% lower than they would be without immigration...etc

[right_freds_dead]

Racism is unfortunately very widespread, it is a pity that it could emerge in a country like UK, which was until now immune to right-wing extremists (compare to France, Germany, Austria, Poland...).

how can having a problem with ECONOMIC immigrants be labelled racist ?

[murpaul]

In everything country, at every time period of History, when there are problems, people need to find a scapegoat: a simple, easy to belive reason for all our problems. Usually, the designated scapegoat is a ethnic minority living in the country: the STRANGERS.

Frankly, I find it insulting that any critique of the anti-immigration debate is labelled racist. We are running out of water, there is not enough housing, not enough prisons, and the health and transport infrastructure are creaking under unprecedented demand. Common sense would suggest it is idiotic in the extreme to allow unlimited immigration into the country in this state.

That is not to say that all immigration is bad, or that race should dictate britishness. The people that came to Britain in the 50s and 60s were needed, and today they and their descendants are as British as I am. However, to allow further immigration until the infrastructure can cope is lacking in foresight. The BNP are gaining support as a result. If mainstream parties want to re-engage the public politically, then they could start by listening to the concerns of the electorate, rather than condemning them as racist, as you have.

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Stable multiracial communities are the dream of Hampstead style social liberals, but patchwork quilts are what result in practice.

Nicely put. I used to have a similar view about mixed communities - in the sense of mixed social and market housing. But that was before I lived among the chavs on an ex-LA estate. Not an experience I would wish to repeat. Give me multiracial communities any time.

[Wuluf]

They already do and have done so for at least 10 years - possibly 20 in some areas. You don't get physical barriers like in Belfast, but there are ghettos of both ethnics and whites in many towns and cities. Different ethnic groups like to cluster with their own type. It's natural human instinct. Stable multiracial communities are the dream of Hampstead style social liberals, but patchwork quilts are what result in practice.

Unlearned Chimp rebuttal No. 1! see "Concept of Nation"

The Ottoman Empire, one of hitories great dynasties existed from 1299 to 1923.. i.e. > 600 years

"Ultimately, the Ottoman Empire's relatively high degree of tolerance on the level of ethnicity proved to be one of its greatest strengths. As Donald Quataert points out, "the Ottoman family was ethnically Turkish in its origins, as were some of its supporters and subjects. But ... the dynasty immediately lost this "Turkish" ethnic identification through intermarriage with many different ethnicities. As for a "Turkish empire", state power relied on a similarly heterogeneous mix of peoples. The Ottoman empire succeeded because it incorporated the energies of the vastly varied peoples it encountered, quickly transcending its roots in the Turkish nomadic migrations from Central Asia into the Middle East."[5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_empire

Nicely put.

see. Unlearned chimp rebuttal 2.

See Unlearned chimp rebuttal 1

Edited May 16, 2006 by Wuluf

[right_freds_dead]

i dont think the subjects about race. its about services for 60million cant be used for 70million without strain.

if the government built the exact same number of houses and school places for the number of immigrants i would be ok with it.

but they dont.

[SarahBell]

Will immigrants be more popular if they bring some water with them?

[Michael]

an economy like ours or that of the US generates a huge surplus of minimum wage jobs and allowing people from poor countries to do these jobs boosts tax revenues and promotes growth in parts of the economy where labour's in short supply.....That's why the Poles were let in ..the added bonus for the government is that such massive uncontrolled immigration suppresses wage inflation.

The problem is you have to develop the infrastructure accordingly............housing and road congestion are the main problems.............and no government has the political will to address these issues.........

Edited May 16, 2006 by Michael