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Realistbear

Sterling Down About 100 Ticks Against The Dollar

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Guest wrongmove

1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8850

Sterling is flat against the yen, and up against the euro. Looks like this is mainily a rebound in the dollar.

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That's a surprise!

Why weren't we warned this might happen?

Because if we knew whatwas going to happen we would all be millionaires by this time next year.

It may have something to do with Mervyn's no confidence speech last week with regard to debt and house prices detached from reality. HPI and MEW have been propping up sterling and a reversal in this trend will bring the currency in line with reality. Rightmove's credibility is probably at zero due to the LR figures and the FT report which says the VIs are wrong.

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Rightmove's credibility is probably at zero due to the LR figures and the FT report which says the VIs are wrong.

Was that the FT report which reported slight rises in prices around the country, or another one from an alternative universe?

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Was that the FT report which reported slight rises in prices around the country, or another one from an alternative universe?

Yes, slight rises is correct. As you know, the FT prices are more "real world" than Rightmove who rely on whatever EAs are ramping as asking prices.

Regional variations are also more accurately reported by the LR and confirm my own area as dropping 8% last Q (detached--West Midlands). I think Rightmove paint a more of less diametrically opposite picture which is confusing to the gullible. I just checked BBC online and see they haven't bothered with the Rightmove "data" this time. At least, not so far. They may be protecting whatever credibility they have left after a barrage of complaints from HPCers <_<

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It may have something to do with Mervyn's no confidence speech last week with regard to debt and house prices detached from reality.

Yeah, that would explain why the Euro is down against the dollar.

As mentioned above, it's not the pound sinking, it's the dollar slightly recovering: hardly surprising after such a sustained drop. And it's still about $0.15 lower than where it was a few weeks ago.

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Yes, slight rises is correct. As you know, the FT prices are more "real world" than Rightmove who rely on whatever EAs are ramping as asking prices.

Regional variations are also more accurately reported by the LR and confirm my own area as dropping 8% last Q (detached--West Midlands). I think Rightmove paint a more of less diametrically opposite picture which is confusing to the gullible.

Where is that West Midlands figure - I remember seeing it before but now the BBC seems to say 7.6% up on the quarter for West Midlands detached?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region5.stm?d :blink: Is it Warwickshire that you're talking about?? In any case I've pointed out many times that the sample sizes and mix-adjustment for those pages makes the local results pretty worthless - just look at the variations between different parts of that region - way too random to be showing an underlying pattern. I can believe the headline 1.2% down, but it's not as dramatic as 8%.

I don't think Rightmove is diametrically opposed to the other indices. They're all giving slight growth on average. I'm not a great fan of the Rightmove figures myself - what I was querying was the fact that you seemed to be implying that the FT figures totally contradicted Rightmove, whereas they just gave a lower rise for this particular month. Diametrically opposed would usually mean going in the other direction...

Edited by Magpie

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Where is that West Midlands figure - I remember seeing it before but now the BBC seems to say 7.6% up on the quarter for West Midlands detached?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region5.stm?d :blink:

I don't think Rightmove is diametrically opposed to the other indices. They're all giving slight growth. I'm not a great fan of the Rightmove figures myself - what I was querying was the fact that you seemed to be implying that the FT figures totally contradicted Rightmove, whereas they just gave a lower rise for this particular month. Diametrically opposed would usually mean going in the other direction...

Here are the government figures for West Midlands:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region5.stm

Worcestershire £184,936 -5.9% 1.1% 2102

Warwickshire £184,860 -7.2% -2.4% 2255

Detached did a little better with greater falls as might be expected:

Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162

Warwick £321,358 -7.4% -7.0% 129

North Warwickshire £264,202 -3.4% -8.9% 55

Rugby £261,763 -6.7% -8.3% 118

Nuneaton And Bedworth £211,720 6.4% 3.5% 87

FT said the market was "stalling" whereas RM suggest that it is roaring ahead at 2%. Depends on the region I suppose and the government figures seem to show a very different picture, at least in the W Midlands where I am waiting to buy. However, the drops of around 8% are not much to get excited about and we are very early in the cycle.

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I overheard a convo in the pub last night, between a guy who used to trade in sterling and his friend. Turns out that the traders are given target profits (his was 10 million) over a time, and once they reach that, they stop trading to stay 'safe'.

I don't know if that is true, but it strikes me as a strange way of conducting a business :blink:

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Also remember that they are not the same point in time

Rightmove is about 2 months ahead of Halifax, which is about 3 months ahead of the L/R. And the FT index is based on the L/R data, but it still lags the haliwide by two months.

Alos the FT is SA which the rightmove isn't.

Also the FT index tends to underreport HPI in the current month (By about 0.3% Per month), because the more expensive properties tend to be reported later than cheaper ones. Now that couldn't be the Solicitors tending to sit on the stamp duty for as long as possible could it?

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Here are the government figures for West Midlands:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region5.stm

Worcestershire £184,936 -5.9% 1.1% 2102

Warwickshire £184,860 -7.2% -2.4% 2255

The variation with Stoke (9.1% up) and Staffordshire (4.4% up) demonstrates pretty clearly why you shouldn't put too much faith in those figures - far too small a sample size to be statistically relevant. The headline fall of 1.2% on the quarter is probably closer to the truth.

What the FT actually said... "London’s turn-of-the-year surge in house prices has stalled... The end of the mini-boom in London’s market did not stop the gradual pick-up in prices across England and Wales, however. Property prices continued to rise at about 0.5 per cent a month, pushing up the annual rate of inflation from 3.8 per cent in March to 4.3 per cent in April."

You're just cherrypicking the word "stalled", which they only applied to London.

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it already is

European bourses tanking more than the FTSE--over valued Euro may devastate exports very soon:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/15052006/323/europ...cks-tumble.html

On Monday, Frankfurt's DAX 30 (Xetra: news) shed 1.61 percent to 5,820.89 points and in Paris the CAC 40 (Paris: news) index dropped 1.25 percent to 5,086.00.
The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of leading eurozone shares fell 1.36 percent to 3,699.40 points.
The euro stood at 1.2843 dollars.

They always say that when the US catches cold Europe gets the flu. Might happen again?

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1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8810

Might break 1.87 today?

The most irrelevant post yet?

Or still Hummus chat?

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The variation with Stoke (9.1% up) and Staffordshire (4.4% up) demonstrates pretty clearly why you shouldn't put too much faith in those figures - far too small a sample size to be statistically relevant. The headline fall of 1.2% on the quarter is probably closer to the truth.

What the FT actually said... "London’s turn-of-the-year surge in house prices has stalled... The end of the mini-boom in London’s market did not stop the gradual pick-up in prices across England and Wales, however. Property prices continued to rise at about 0.5 per cent a month, pushing up the annual rate of inflation from 3.8 per cent in March to 4.3 per cent in April."

You're just cherrypicking the word "stalled", which they only applied to London.

Actually, Staffordshire did quite well (detached) with some smart falls according to the government stats:

Stafford £250,334 -6.0% -3.3% 146

Staffordshire Moorlands £231,935 -3.0% 1.1% 89

East Staffordshire £217,250 -8.1% -10.1% 102

Newcastle-Under-Lyme £211,712 0.6% 1.5% 83

Cannock Chase £207,280 3.8% 5.7% 81

Tamworth £205,469 -7.3% -1.4% 71

Stoke-On-Trent £165,187 -0.1% -0.2% 110

South Staffs shows a surprising increase of 6.3% which seems to buck the trend for most of the rest of W Miodlands where prices are doing well (HPC-wise).

Sources:

England and Wales

Land Registry of England and Wales, Crown copyright. The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales.

Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2006.

The most irrelevant post yet?

Or still Hummus chat?

As Delboy would say, "Au Contraire." The currency markets move just about everything else there is with more money changing hands in a day than the stock markets handle in a year--or so I am told. If a currency collapses it takes everything with it and can have enormous repercussions on IR and anything else you care to name.

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Actually, Staffordshire did quite well (detached) etc etc

Just to reiterate one more time. The sample sizes are insignificant (<500 in the figures you quote here). There is no useful mix-adjustment.

Those figures are statistically worthless.

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1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8850

The pound hasn't been this low since ... last week. It's higher now than at any time during April. How is this recent fall significant?

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Just to reiterate one more time. The sample sizes are insignificant (<500 in the figures you quote here). There is no useful mix-adjustment.

Those figures are statistically worthless.

I am tracking houses in my area and would say that the figures do actually represent actual falls. I would say closer to 10% from what I am seeing but the ODPM is not far off with their 8.2% drop. I would tend to agree more that Rightmove's ramped up "asking prices" were less reliable as there is always a gap between hoped for prices and actual sale price which the LR records.

The West Midlands is bound to see some healthy figures (HPC-wise) due to the loss of jobs at Rover and Peugeot etc. A friend of mine who works for one of the other large motor firms (better not say which as it was in confidence) told me last night that he was being made redundant at the end of this year. This will no doubt hit the press a little later but needless to say it is part of the ongoing trend around here to shut manufacturing down.

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More interesting facts about the FT index – as it’s based on LR there is very little data to go on for recent months (remember the 2 year window for registering sales and the general slowness collecting the paperwork) and so they resort to forecasting the last few months and also apply a 3-month smoothing window. So it’s actually a rather nice “combined” index. And, of course, the portfolio of indicators used for the forecast includes Halifax and Nationwide … :)

Edited by spline

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The West Midlands is bound to see some healthy figures (HPC-wise) due to the loss of jobs at Rover and Peugeot etc.

Yes, regardless of my niggling about stats, I agree with you there - I think it will have a significantly negative economic impact on the region and HPs are likely to fall there.

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If Mr Market is offering all sorts of prices, then choose the one that makes sense for your purpose. I have locked in 1.89 for a few weeks in the US, and may add more when I check a few price to snap up a few bargains.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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