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Guardian: Labour ' Faces Poll Wipe-out'.

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'Labour 'faces poll wipe-out'':

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/st...1774404,00.html

Labour could be heading for a wipe-out by David Cameron's Tories at the next general election, says the first detailed study of the local election results and their possible impact.

The analysis, compiled by the Electoral Reform Society and released to The Observer yesterday, predicts that Labour stands to lose 149 of its present 355 MPs, bringing its Commons strength down to 206 - 'even worse than in 1983'.

The Tories could add between 100 and 120 MPs to their current 198. This would probably give them more than 300 MPs, comfortably the largest party and 'with new seats created in boundary changes, on the verge of an overall majority'.

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B*llshit - the Tories are just piling up more and more votes in London and the South East (see Monday's Telegraph front page). Instead of Tory MPs with majorities of 15,000 in Surrey they will have ones of 25,000+ - still doesn't get you another Tory MP elected! Cameron has zero appeal outside the south east - and the Tories can't win a majority unless they gain seats in the north and midlands!

In reality the Tories will need to beat Labour by at least 10 percent to win the next election because of the way votes are distributed across the country. It ain't gonna happen - the most likely outcome is a hung parliament (would put a tenner on Ming Campbell being Foreign Secretary in 2010!).

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I think there are a few more skeletons to come out of the cupboard yet.

Just take a look at the media today, it has turned and I am afraid that the media does and always will control the political landscape.

The media in its entirety is scathing of New Labour in whatever shape or form. The idea that New Labour can reinvent itself out of this crisis is simply not going to happen. They are well and truly stuck in the brown smelly stuff!!!.

The only party that could possibly win an election is the Conservatives, as always its a two horse race and always will be until such time as the other parties sharpen up their acts.

The Tories having been in hibernation for a decade seem to have been given the nodd by the men in grey suits that it is now their time to take the reigns.

The writing is well and truly on the wall, Labour are finished, completely discraced, trusted by nobody, and costing this country a small fortune for everyday they remain in office. The pressure is now on, the papers have decided and it will take a matter of weeks and just a couple more horror stories of sleeze and corruption expose's to sink the cuckoo who took the Labour Party Nest.

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Guest muttley

B*llshit - the Tories are just piling up more and more votes in London and the South East (see Monday's Telegraph front page). Instead of Tory MPs with majorities of 15,000 in Surrey they will have ones of 25,000+ - still doesn't get you another Tory MP elected! Cameron has zero appeal outside the south east - and the Tories can't win a majority unless they gain seats in the north and midlands!

Don't underestimate the swell of resentment against Tony Blair throughout the country. If us northern oiks can vote for Thatcher, we can be persuaded to vote for Cameron.

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B*llshit - the Tories are just piling up more and more votes in London and the South East (see Monday's Telegraph front page). Instead of Tory MPs with majorities of 15,000 in Surrey they will have ones of 25,000+ - still doesn't get you another Tory MP elected! Cameron has zero appeal outside the south east - and the Tories can't win a majority unless they gain seats in the north and midlands!

In reality the Tories will need to beat Labour by at least 10 percent to win the next election because of the way votes are distributed across the country. It ain't gonna happen - the most likely outcome is a hung parliament (would put a tenner on Ming Campbell being Foreign Secretary in 2010!).

So the ERS just made it up and did no research/analysis? I agree the tories need a disproportionately large % given the skewing of seats to metropolitan areas and the north/midlands etc but the council voting is significant as it represents a big change in sentiment. As for what will happen 4 years out, give me a break. Few commentators could have forecast this council election result last year nor, in 1992 the labour result in 1997...

As for Ming, I wouldn't bet on him being LDem leader in 2 years!

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Anyone remember the 2004 local elections - shares of the vote then were Tories 38%, Lib Dems 29% and Labour 26% - virtually identical to this year. One year later Labour won a third term with a majority of 60 (on only 36% of the vote)!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3796075.stm

The results this year are even more skewed by the fact that there were all out local elections in London with very few other areas voting. Given his appeal to metrosexuals/buy to letters/toffs in west London this significantly skews the result - and the level of support for the Cameronistas!

I would concede the Tories could win in 2014 but in 2010 - highly unlikely! They are screwed by the current electoral system!

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To obtain a working majority, the Conservatives need to lead Labour by at least 11.7%....

'Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right: the Conservatives and the electoral system: a summary':

http://www.makemyvotecount.org.uk/blog/arc...s_to_the_l.html

If the Conservatives had drawn level with Labour in 2005, with each party polling 33.8% of the vote, Labour would have secured 336 seats and the Tories just 220. That is an unfair lead of 18% of all the seats in the House of Commons. For the Conservatives to win outright with a majority of two, with 324 seats, they would need a national lead of 11.7%. This is a larger margin than they had as the governing party in 1979 and 1987, and all for a majority of two.

In the 2005 General Election, in England more people voted Conservative (8,116,005) than Labour (8,043,461), but Labour won 92 more English seats:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/vote2005/html/england.stm

http://www.makemyvotecount.org.uk/blog/images/bias.html

Edited by Jeff Ross

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Guest muttley

Come the next election we will have had a change of Prime Minister, an embarassing retreat from Iraq and an economy in reverse. Throw in a few sleaze stories a la Prescott and Clarke, and I'd say the Tories have a decent chance of forming the govenment in 2010.

Add a HPC and you might ask would they want to.

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a couple of bnp MP's as well.

funny how that analysis discounted everything else that the last local elections showed.

BNP got 18% of the vote in the seats the contested this is hardly small fry anymore, but are going mainstream.

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The problem the BNP are going to face, and always have faced is that the Parties are now waking up to the concerns rather than just labelling those voicing the concerns, Bigots, Nazis, Homophobics.

The smear campaign to dirty anyone who disagreed with mass immigration and the loss of British Jobs, and ever declining living standards has now gone it course. We have all, each and every one of us tired of the labelling. We can be brainwashed no more, we can see the problems with our own eyes as clear as the nose on the end of our faces.

The fact that Joe public has now wisened up to it, and the fact that it is now possible to criticise immigration without having the police turn up in the middle of the night and arrest you is a signal that the tide is now turning.

The parties both Labour, and Conservatives will for sure attempt to hijack some of the BNP's more sensible and workable policies, those policies that are middle ground and are attracting otherwise middle of the road voters to what is termed and extremist party. For sure if the two main parties were to turn a blind eye to the successes of the BNP then they would pay heavily at the polling stations.

Now Blair has already done a U turn just today, with the retterick that the Human Rights Act should be re-written, however as we all know its just hot air, similar to "Tough on Crime" and the protection of Britains Borders lines that he comes out with from time to time. Blair and his parties biggest problem, and it is the parties problem, a change of leader changes nothing, is simply that nobody believes a word they say!!.

The Tories are today an unknown quantity, and it has taken them a long time to get to this status in the minds of the public. They were previously assosciated with right wing extremism, yet this label was clearly promoted by the Labour Party using smear campaigns at Taxpayers expense. The Tories did the right thing, rather than enter the affray, they sat back took it on the chin and waited for New Labour to self destruct as it always has in the past with Sleeze, and Fraud, and Corruption.

My biggest problem with the Tories is that they have become too left wing, and have hijacked many of Labours less than impressive policies, I hope for their sake that they drop them when in office otherwise they will see little more than a single term.

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I have no idea about the time before but throughout my lifetime there has never really been a difference between Tories and Labour on crime and immigration......Mrs Thatcher was right wing on economics and trade union reform but nom ore right wing than Blair on immigration ...only a massive poll surge for the BNP would make the liberal elite change their policies...Daily Mail views on crime and immigration are backed the majority of over 30s........

In Denmark the mainstream has adopted many of the fascists' policies precisely because of the electoral threat they pose.

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The electorate are going to want to punish NuLabour for HPI and the debt they have fostered. When the crash comes and the mess remains the finger is going to single out Mr. Brown and his Miracle Economy will become a textbook economics lesson on how to distinguish wealth from debt.

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The only party that could possibly win an election is the Conservatives, as always its a two horse race and always will be until such time as the other parties sharpen up their acts.

Yes but they are both bed partners and no matter who wins they will keep stuffing the working man and argue about things that we can not measure or even care about.

I’m in danger of becoming a life long member of the BNP because at least they are not part of the plot to convince voters that we have anything resembling a democracy. You can vote for the Mafia family, the capcho’s or the dupos side of the Mafia family but don’t expect things to change on the streets

laurejon

Well Said

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I think some decent journalism abnout the car black boxes, the problems ID cards will cause might help.

The changes on the way to council tax need highlighting too.

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I have no idea about the time before but throughout my lifetime there has never really been a difference between Tories and Labour on crime and immigration......Mrs Thatcher was right wing on economics and trade union reform but nom ore right wing than Blair on immigration ...only a massive poll surge for the BNP would make the liberal elite change their policies...Daily Mail views on crime and immigration are backed the majority of over 30s........

In Denmark the mainstream has adopted many of the fascists' policies precisely because of the electoral threat they pose.

Totally agreed, Labour have morphed to virtually identical Tory policies, just a different figurehead.

I'm guessing they will continue to adopt any popular policies even if they are a reverse of what they originally advocated to cling to power.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Don't underestimate the swell of resentment against Tony Blair throughout the country. If us northern oiks can vote for Thatcher, we can be persuaded to vote for Cameron.

Even though he`s trying to get Kirsty into his camp. ( Source The Mail on Sunday) :D

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The electorate are going to want to punish NuLabour for HPI and the debt they have fostered. When the crash comes and the mess remains the finger is going to single out Mr. Brown and his Miracle Economy will become a textbook economics lesson on how to distinguish wealth from debt.

Very well put, but aren't there still a few folk up north who are generally mistrustful of Tory policy.

If the crash happens before they have built up too much negative equity they may well influence in another direction.

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(would put a tenner on Ming Campbell being Foreign Secretary in 2010!).

Hilarious! might as well set fire to that tenner now

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Anyone remember the 2004 local elections - shares of the vote then were Tories 38%, Lib Dems 29% and Labour 26% - virtually identical to this year. One year later Labour won a third term with a majority of 60 (on only 36% of the vote)!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3796075.stm

The results this year are even more skewed by the fact that there were all out local elections in London with very few other areas voting. Given his appeal to metrosexuals/buy to letters/toffs in west London this significantly skews the result - and the level of support for the Cameronistas!

I would concede the Tories could win in 2014 but in 2010 - highly unlikely! They are screwed by the current electoral system!

The boundries have just been changed which will push 22 marginals away from labour. So a slightly more even playing field.

If you guys are interested, try here http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk . They are 97% accurate at predicting election results.

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I would bank on Labour finally fulfilling one of its 1997 election pledges before the next general election. It will introduce proportional representation to ensure a hung parliament!

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:P Both parties, Labour and Tory have mass immigration as a central feature of thier 'economic growth' policies.

Both parties would be bankrupt if they didn't accept huge secret payoffs from Rich business interests in return for promoting such 'growth' policies as the above. B)

Do you really think SIPPS - A plan for the very rich to buy up housing at 40% off with large tax breaks was some sort of oversight/accident? :lol:

If Cameron won an election tomorrow, no major policy or laws would change.

The political agenda is a media set agenda, controlled by a vast buerocracy of spin and deceit.

Education - everyone passes with 90% under the government.

Immigration - rising aids, criminal gangs, houseprices - not a topic for debate, you must be a nazi for mentioning the word.

Endless Houseprice rises - What a great economy, how rich we are....etc.. etc..

The print and TV media, BBC etc.. are olgopolies, with deep political connections into these power blocks and depend on keeping them sweet for the license fee etc..

I guess only the new media outlets, websites offer discussion on topics free from this media thought control/spin/deceit.

Edited by brainclamp

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Both the recent local election results, especially in London, and last year's General Election were very interesting in the detail. The Toires did not get many more votes (up 1% or so) and Labour lost almost all of its seats because of a drop in its vote, which went to the Lib Dems or minor parties. For example, the headline last week in West London (my local patch) was that Labour were wiped out, In ealing, Hammersmith, etc. The actual results were very close with defeats and victories of a few tens of votes.

This indicates that voters are staying away from Labour and, from personal experience, demonstrates that if your own workers sit on their hands, you will lsoe narrowly, rather than win narrowly.

Of course, the results were still dreadful for Labour and no amount of spin can hide this. It was not just a mid term protest. Nevertheless, the view I took was that these voters have not yet been irredeemingly lost to Labour, and the next election can still be won. it all depends on the 'handover', the economy and whether Brown can inspire his troops. I am not certain he will succeed, but I am convinced that Blair absolutely cannot.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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