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V Interesting Uk Paper On Property Market Forecasting

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'Forecasts Need To Be Acceptable To Their Users'

'Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in "self censorship" or are "censored" following in-house consultation.'

'Subjectivity is intrinsic'

etc. etc.


I thought it was interesting that they said that from 2010, the shortage of people coming into the workforce will drop by 60,000 a year. Presumably because of the drop off in birth rate after the baby boom? That has huge implications. For a start it will mean a strain on the workforce as we have to support an ageing population. Then it means that less and less people will come into the housing market at the bottom to support that crucial stage. Less people to support these silly prices. Where will the bull arument of oversupply go? Who will buy all these new builds? How will they be able to afford to come into the market if they have an average of £15 student debt to service first? Who will buy all the older generation's houses when they pop their cloggs or want to down size? They flippantly say that immigration will solve the problem. But will immigrants want to come to a country to support our ageing baby boomers? What will the state of the country be in the 2010 onwards period?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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