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Monday – Will The Brown Stuff Hit The Fan?

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Monday – will the brown stuff hit the fan?

I wanted a quick poll just to see how negative people see the stock market – and was interested if people thought it could be the trigger of a HPC this time round

My bet is that the bargain hunters will be out and we will see modest gains by close Monday

This is my first poll – hope it works

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No is my guess. Too many people are expecting it and have positioned themselves accordingly - ergo, it will not happen. A rally is FAR more likely unless we get something over the rest of the weekend that knocks confidence further.

Next week promises to be entertaining on all markets. Triple-witching week, where options and futures contracts all expire.

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I think there's scope for further falls. I don't think it's the end of the world as many people (including in the FT) make out to be. Just a case of runny botty excitement at the moment.

I could be wrong of course.

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I would not be suprised if we see more falls. Possibly 300 to 400 points from Fridays figures over the next few weeks.

Mr Joe.

I guess it will fall maybe another 60 points on Monday, But it will not be the trigger..

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Stockmarket braces for fall

What time BST does Sydney open for Monday trading ?

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Confidence is shaken. Higher IR are now a market reality and this will bring stocks down 10% opver the next month or so provided nothing disastrous happens in the world! The press have gone bear in the US as the HPC dawns and my guess is that it will catch on here now that Mervyn King openly admitted things are not so good with the HPI-MEW Miracle Economy.

Time to go to cash and dump IR sensitive assets. BTL is dead in the water from here on and will sink quite a few investors who bought in late in the cycle. Wages are going nowhere and inflation in real terms is rampant. The trend toward lower returns begun last year will continue. Better to cash out and get 5% from savings in the Building Society than struggle to get 3% on BTL while watching capital value tank later this year.

Monday: FTSE down about 50. Dow off 75.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Weekly Recap - Week ending 12-May-06
The stock market had a very rough week. Reality finally hit home on the interest rate front.
The S&P 500 index was dead flat on Monday and Tuesday. The reason was simple. The market was awaiting the Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday. Another 1/4% hike in the fed funds rate to 5% was fully expected, and it happened. There were also high hopes that the Fed would give an indication that it would either pause at the next meeting and not raise rates then, or that it would indicate that the rate hikes were over. That didn't happen.
Edited by Realistbear

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What time BST does Sydney open for Monday trading ?

Sydney is currently 9 hours ahead

I guess their markets will open at midnight BST. so about 5 hours time

Edited by Nick T

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http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

LONDON (AFX) - The London bull market that has seen shares rise in value by a third over the past two years is finished, The Sunday Telegraph reported citing leading equity strategists and economists.
Market analysts say that low growth prospects in the US and the weak dollar, combined with rising inflation, could see an end to the growth in stock market values for the rest of the year, according to the article.
Their comments came as markets around the world suffered the biggest sell-off for more than two years at the end of last week.

Confidence is eroding and people still remember 2002. I began bailing about 2 weeks ago and will continue to go to cash in the light of all the negativity out there as indicated in the world's press--its everywhere not just in the UK. Monday might surprise though.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Market analysts say that low growth prospects in the US and the weak dollar, combined with rising inflation, could see an end to the growth in stock market values for the rest of the year, according to the article.

The RBA issued a severe warning last September.

RBA warning of 'meltdown'

David Uren, Economics correspondent

27sep05

FURTHER rises in oil prices, the collapse of a major bank or an unexpected jump in inflation could be all it takes to send the increasingly fragile global financial system into meltdown.

The Reserve Bank of Australia warned yesterday that the current calm in financial markets could be the prelude to a storm that could wreak havoc in the world economy.

The RBA believes the boom in markets for shares, bonds and housing in many countries is unsustainable.

The warning came as share prices in Australia reached a new high point, while a rush to invest in Australian bonds is pushing down long-term interest rates.

"The preconditions are in place for quite abrupt swings in sentiment and a disruptive snap-back in pricing," the central bank says in its latest review of the health of the financial system.

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Ok – bets are now off – the scores on the doors

52.94% yes for continue

37.84% No

9.24% Don’t care

Very exciting results although the day is not over – bargain hunters could still step in

It could be that the confidence has gone and we will have more negatives to come

18.49% think this could be the trigger

72.27% don’t think it’s the trigger

9.24% Don’t care

We will wait and see – I suppose it depends on how bad it gets

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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