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Assuming The S*** Hits The Fan On Monday And The Forseeable Future

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I own a property valued at 160k with only a 60k mortgage, I'm thinking of selling and renting for a couple of years assuming house prices will drop and investing the 100k approx instead.

Is this a wise thing to do? If there is a hpc how much do we think it will drop by?

Sure if my house drops to 120k then I will stay but if it goes to the floor at 80k (bought it for 64k in 2000) then I will jump ship.

Any thoughts?

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Any thoughts?

You have to be sure – if you believe the papers – house prices went up by over 1% a month since xmas- this means £1600 profit on your house investment at the moment if this carries on for a year you could have lost out on £19200 and paid rent out on top of that.

Personally I would sit tight – enjoy the fact you could get on the ladder and by bigger when they hit the bottom – on the other hand if you can not afford your mortgage if IR’s hit 5% then Sell Sell Sell

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If Monday becomes another "Black Monday" in the style of that fateful day in 1987 a major meltdown in stocks will have a broad impact on the economy and a HPC will follow as it did almost 2 decades ago. Confidence will be sucked out of the market place. Look at the thread on copper futures--50% or more down on Friday's fix--once this sinks in we could see pandamonium in the commodoties markets as people rush for the exits. You have a surging IR trend everywhere (except the UK) with the ECB mulling over a massive .50% hike, the Chinese economists warning again today that there is more to come after they raised recently. Japan has real inflationary worrries and will begin hiking very soon and the Yen carry trade threat is perhaps the greatest shock yet to be felt by the world economies. You have the US dollar falling faster than at any time in history with the consequential mega drops on the Euro bourses on Friday. Warren Buffet announced last week that he would not be in property at this point of the bubble market--millions listen to and follow the guru. Our own Mervyn King of the Bank of England added to the negativity on houses with his own warnings that were printed by most of the press (except perhaps the Daily Express :lol: ). The press are going bearish with the FT, Telegraph and others starting to print stories that not all is well with the UK property market. The UK building societies are cutting savings rates and hiking mortgage rates and pulling fixed rate loans off the shelves.

Add it all together and you see the picture and what may be in store for us starting on Monday.

Edited by Realistbear

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If Monday becomes another "Black Monday" in the style of that fateful day in 1987 a major meltdown in stocks will have a broad impact on the economy and a HPC will follow as it did almost 2 decades ago. Confidence will be sucked out of the market place. Look at the thread on copper futures--50% or more down on Friday's fix--once this sinks in we could see pandamonium in the commodoties markets as people rush for the exits. You have a surging IR trend everywhere (except the UK) with the ECB mulling over a massive .50% hike, the Chinese economists warning again today that there is more to come after they raised recently. Japan has real inflationary worrries and will begin hiking very soon and the Yen carry trade threat is perhaps the greatest shock yet to be felt by the world economies. You have the US dollar falling faster than at any time in history with the consequential mega drops on the Euro bourses on Friday. Warren Buffet announced last week that he would not be in property at this point of the bubble market--millions listen to and follow the guru. Our own Mervyn King of the Bank of England added to the negativity on houses with his own warnings that were printed by most of the press (except perhaps the Daily Express :lol: ). The press are going bearish with the FT, Telegraph and others starting to print stories that not all is well with the UK property market. The UK building societies are cutting savings rates and hiking mortgage rates and pulling fixed rate loans off the shelves.

Add it all together and you see the picture and what may be in store for us starting on Monday.

Mate these sort of bear encouraging posts expose you as the fraud you are with your own special astonishing brand of spin.

Anyone who knows what they're talking about would know that the famous 'black monday' was followed by 60% real HPI until the crash took off in 1989.

As with any boom, the real money is in the final push to the top & it's only the fools that step on the elevator at the top who really suffer.

If you want to make money & think that we're on the verge of a market crash, hold onto your real estate, any crash is followed by lower rates which will see a property peak that you thought couldn't happen!

Look at the home page & see the graph for yourselves:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.php

What happened after 1987?

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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Mate these sort of bear encouraging posts expose you as the fraud you are with your own special astonishing brand of spin.

Anyone who knows what they're talking about would know that the famous 'black monday' was followed by 60% real HPI until the crash took off in 1989.

As with any boom, the real money is in the final push to the top & it's only the fools that step on the elevator at the top who really suffer.

If you want to make money & think that we're on the verge of a market crash, hold onto your real estate, any crash is followed by lower rates which will see a property peak that you thought couldn't happen!

Look at the home page & see the graph for yourselves:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.php

What happened after 1987?

The "fraud" is the one who suggests house prices only go up as the truth is that prices go up as well as down and that the history of house prices shows we have a boom and bust economy. Even Gordon "Miracle Economy" Brown admitted this as he promised to never let it happen agin. If you believe the miracle man then be it upon your own head.

Black Monday led to the 1989-96 bear market in houses. We have already had the frenzied run up for this boom and that was in the years leading up to around mid 2005. The ODPM is now reporting regional falls varying anywhere up to 8% down. My area, Stratford, is down by this amount for detached properties.

But, it could be correct that if you hold long enough you can weather the downturn. After all, the Great Crash eventually ended 7 years later. Some have bailed to sit out the crash and that is a good strategy if you time the market correctly. If you do not mind selling and having the inconvenience of moving to rented accomodation for a few years to avoid losses then there is nothing stopping you. If a long downturn threatens you financially or if the economy looks like you may lose your job or income level now might be a good time to sell.

But remember that Bulls like TTRTR has not factored in that it is TTRTRates and this market has been built on very low interest rates. That picture is changing and a new game is starting.

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Never thought I'd see it - TTRLR using history to predict the future :lol:

Nobody knows whats going to happen - you make the decision....

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What's happening on Monday?

I think people are wondering about the stockmarket and such like after the falls of friday

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Oh, OK, I haven't been watching the stockmarket for a while: didn't even realise it had dropped a lot.

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Oh, OK, I haven't been watching the stockmarket for a while: didn't even realise it had dropped a lot.

Yea Ftse 100 got a battering lost around 2% , think i red ftse 250 lost 3%, gold + silver also pulled back.

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The Middle East markets crashed--lost about 50%. EU markets lost around 2.4%. DOW off just over 1%.

The fear is that Monday will continue the trend that was triggered by the falling dollar and higher IR and threat to the EU economy--autos lost 3%.

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The Middle East markets crashed--lost about 50%. EU markets lost around 2.4%. DOW off just over 1%.

The fear is that Monday will continue the trend that was triggered by the falling dollar and higher IR and threat to the EU economy--autos lost 3%.

The Middle East lost 50%? <_<

I own a property valued at 160k with only a 60k mortgage, I'm thinking of selling and renting for a couple of years assuming house prices will drop and investing the 100k approx instead.

Is this a wise thing to do? If there is a hpc how much do we think it will drop by?

Sure if my house drops to 120k then I will stay but if it goes to the floor at 80k (bought it for 64k in 2000) then I will jump ship.

Any thoughts?

If you bought your house 10 years ago I`d say your valuation is correct and you are as solid as bricks :P If, as I suspect, you bought it in the last 2-3 you are probably miles out and your place is worth closer to 100 than 160...sell..while you can :o

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Sounds like the only fix to avoid another Black Monday and of course to save the Dollar is for a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Perhaps on Sunday. Israeli lead with the full support of the moron George W and PHoney BLiar with his full Diana grimace carefully attached. :ph34r:

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The Middle East lost 50%? <_<

If you bought your house 10 years ago I`d say your valuation is correct and you are as solid as bricks :P If, as I suspect, you bought it in the last 2-3 you are probably miles out and your place is worth closer to 100 than 160...sell..while you can :o

As in the OP I bought it for 64k in 2000 :)

Thanks for the responses folks it's all good to know.

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Sounds like the only fix to avoid another Black Monday and of course to save the Dollar is for a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Perhaps on Sunday. Israeli lead with the full support of the moron George W and PHoney BLiar with his full Diana grimace carefully attached. :ph34r:

Yes. Or how about another 9/11 Scenario with planes flying into Parliament, the Arc D'Triumph and the EU HQ in Belgium? That might rattle the currency markets a little but it may hurt the markets more than save them as the aftermath from 9/11 did little for stocks. Might be better to allow Iran to develop their nukes and see what happens rather than for the UN to inspect and ban them? After all they say appeasement is the only way to get a dictator led country from abandoning its ambitions (Jihad). I think I have to agree. :ph34r:

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Yes. Or how about another 9/11 Scenario with planes flying into Parliament, the Arc D'Triumph and the EU HQ in Belgium? That might rattle the currency markets a little but it may hurt the markets more than save them as the aftermath from 9/11 did little for stocks. Might be better to allow Iran to develop their nukes and see what happens rather than for the UN to inspect and ban them? After all they say appeasement is the only way to get a dictator led country from abandoning its ambitions (Jihad). I think I have to agree. :ph34r:

Careful you'll give Blair ideas on how to cling on to another year in power.

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Last time it took a dive on a Friday it picked back up again on the Monday.

I wouldn't count on a Black Monday as a given.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Last time it took a dive on a Friday it picked back up again on the Monday.

I wouldn't count on a Black Monday as a given.

I think you may be right as the market has had time to digest the US back to back improvements in the trade deficit and the harm that will flow to the EU and the UK if exports collapse due to an undervalued dollar. You also have some noises coming from the Moslem conference in Bali (of all places) that seem to suggest democracy and equality are a good thing. I am still stock wary though and have liquidated a few more holdings to go 80% cash and 20% equities!

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Sounds like the only fix to avoid another Black Monday and of course to save the Dollar is for a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Perhaps on Sunday. Israeli lead with the full support of the moron George W and PHoney BLiar with his full Diana grimace carefully attached. :ph34r:

A pre-emptive strike against Iran will see Oil trading instantly at $100 as a starting point, not good.

I am expecting a strong rally in the FTSE next week, however i am Bearish on the markets going forward except for OIL and Gold stocks.

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As in the OP I bought it for 64k in 2000 :)

Thanks for the responses folks it's all good to know.

Well..if you paid 64K, put 5% down and are nearly 6 years into a repayment mortgage of circa 60K what is the point in selling <_< you couldn`t rent cheaper than £350 a month could you? <_< Sorry to sound rude but did you read through what you originally posted up? ;)

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Well..if you paid 64K, put 5% down and are nearly 6 years into a repayment mortgage of circa 60K what is the point in selling <_< you couldn`t rent cheaper than £350 a month could you? <_< Sorry to sound rude but did you read through what you originally posted up? ;)

Rudeness accepted lol.

My thinking is this, be 100k in the green without a house or mortgage instead of in the green by 20k+ (equity wise) with a 60k mortgage.

Then when the house prices go down I buy again thereby reducing my mortgage or not even have one at all.

Currently I'm on interest only so I'm paying £350 a month in interest alone, whereas 100k in the bank or invested would give me a good few quid in interest enough to keep my 100k and take the edge off my rent to make my outgoings on accomodation less than my mortgage payment.

Ok so I wouldn't have a house but if/when the hpc occurs I could technically buy my 160k back for 120k (theoretically speaking) making me 40k better off and saving me money at the same time.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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