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Irish I R 5.7% If It Was Not For The Ecb Imposing Their Rates

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Irish rates would be 5.7pc without ECB

Friday, May 12 15:19:57


Irish interest rates would be at around 5.7pc if Ireland had control of its own monetary policy and not the current ECB-imposed rate of 2.5pc, according to a major report on the Irish economy by Goodbody Stockbrokers today.
Chief Economist, Dermot O'Leary, said that
interest rates are set to remain "highly stimulatory
" (have increasing marked effects on the Irish economy) for some time to come.
He added that the disparity between what the natural level for interest rates in the Irish economy would be without the European Central Bank's governance and the actual current rate comes with an amount of risk attached for us -
with the continuing build-up in household debt being the most "pressing concern".

One glove fits all? Or can it ruin some?

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Should Irish House Prices be rising faster?


Text of speech made by: Austin Hughes, Chief Economist, IIB Bank -

Speaking to Irish Home Builders Association AGM, Waterford, Friday 12th May 2006

Main Points

* Irish house prices are rising relatively modestly when compared to developments in other countries.

* In recent years house prices have risen by more in Spain, France and the UK than in Ireland.

* Since 2002 borrowing for house purchase has risen three times as quickly in Ireland as in the rest of the Eurozone. However, house prices here have risen by just under 10 percent on average against an average increase of around 7.2 percent in the Eurozone.

* These considerations suggest Irish house prices could have risen far faster in recent years. A surge in housebuilding prevented this.

* If housebuilding had remained at its 2001 level of 52,000, Irish house prices could be as much as 20 percent higher than they are today. This would mean the average house could be €60,000 more expensive.

* Demand for housing seems to be strengthening. The IIB/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Survey shows house purchasing intentions are now stronger than any other time in the 10 year history of the series.

* Strong sentiment towards property reflects a range of influences:

o Irish people still live in comparably large households

o SSIAs mean the spending power of Irish households will rise by about 36 percent by the end of 2007.

o Ireland’s population is rising faster than anticipated.

o Applications for PPS numbers in early 2006 are almost one third higher than the corresponding months of 2005. Are we seeing a second wave of migration?

* Higher borrowing costs will act as an important counterweight to these positive influences.

o The ECB is set to raise interest rates next month – most likely by a quarter percent. A further ½ percent increase is expected later in 2006.

o On balance Irish house prices are likely to rise by around 10 percent on average in 2006/2007.

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One glove fits all? Or can it ruin some?

It is not even that, The rates are set based on what Germany, and to a lesser extent, France needs.

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It is not even that, The rates are set based on what Germany, and to a lesser extent, France needs.

Who both do not have house price inflation.

Funny that. :ph34r:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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