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Realistbear

U S Trade Figures Just Released-- 2nd Month In A Row Of Improvement

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060512/economy.html?.v=4

AP

U.S. Trade Deficit Improves for 2nd Month

Friday May 12, 8:35 am ET

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Improves for 2nd Straight Month

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly declined in March for a second consecutive month, something that hasn't happened in more than two years. The improvement reflected record U.S. exports and a big drop in the country's foreign oil bill.

Time to buy $, pound lost almost 100 ticks on the news.

1 U.K. £ =

1.8893

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Holy Moses it's a parting of the waves!!!!

$1.8960!!!

I bet we're all glad that we didn't take your advice RB...

Early days yet. The pound's value is based on Gordon's Miracle Economy and we all know what we think about that. Not long before the markets realise that HPI and MEW (the driver of the Miracle) is fading rapidly and with it the perception that we have a healthy economy.

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If anyone is guilty of exagerating rumours it's you RB.

And if anyone is in denial its you TTRTR! What's the problem with the news that the US has had back to back months of an improving deficit? It is not so much a rumour as a fact. Should be good news for you as it may allow the Fed to stoop raising the rates.

How about the FT "Rumour" this morning that London house prices have stalled? Another rumour or a fact?

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$1.8960!!!

Bollards!

I am getting paid in dollars and they are worth less and less in pounds!

Who is buying all these pounds, and why? They can get 0.5% more interest on dollars.

I should've transferred a load of dollars to the UK when it was $1.72. Doh!

Question is, do I get out now or pray for another dollar rally?

frugalista

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Who is buying all these pounds, and why?

While I'm sure some people are buying pounds in anticipation of rate rises, the main cause of the so-called rise is _the people selling dollars_.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a brief dollar rally in the next few months, but in the long-term I think it's all going to be downhill for quite a while. Of course if rates do go up here, all bets are off.

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The traders are pushing the dollar lower but its the fundamentals that matter (as Warren "The Man" Buffett would say). Against sterling the dollar is grossly undervalued. The UK's problems are broadly similar to those in the US including the amount of personal debt, sagging property market (US appear to be about 6 months ahead of the downcycle curve), weakening jobs (although the US are still adding jobs at this point), dependence on HPI and MEW to keep consumer spending going and hence the economy. US GDP growth is stronger than the UK by about double which suggests that, long term, the US economy is proving to be more resilient as the up cycle unwinds.

So far Gordon has convinced the world that his MIracle Economy is stable and that the pound is worthy to be among the world's striongest currencies. However, a US downturn will take the UK economy along forf the ride as we are seeing in the FTSE today--down 1.61% (3:39 pm) with the DOW off .44% so far today.

I would not bet on sterling mainatining a high value for much longer unless IR skyrocket and then the very thing holding the economy up will crash and the pound along with it. Its a no win situation. A high pound against a low dollar is lethal for trade as the US is our number two market.

Time is key.

1.8894

Edited by Realistbear

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Holy Moses it's a parting of the waves!!!!

$1.8960!!!

I bet we're all glad that we didn't take your advice RB...

Sacred Buddha the waves just closed again and some got wet: 1.8887 :)

Millions made on that blip no doubt <_<

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When I saw the US Trade deficit figures I thought surely now a long overdue rally in the $ was about to happen.

Then looked at dailyfx.com to find the £ touching $1.90 :huh: Falling now at $1.885 but still cable is up on the day overall.

The poor old buck can't seem to do anything right these days.

I agree with RB though that it can surely be a matter of time before grossly overvalued cable hits the skids.

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I agree with RB though that it can surely be a matter of time before grossly overvalued cable hits the skids.

While I have no doubts that sterling is facing a long-term decline, first you'd have to prove that it's grossly overvalued today. It doesn't appear to have been rising much at all against major currencies that aren't tied strongly to the US dollar, and it's significantly down against most commodities in the last few years.

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060512/economy.html?.v=4

AP

U.S. Trade Deficit Improves for 2nd Month

Friday May 12, 8:35 am ET

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Improves for 2nd Straight Month

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly declined in March for a second consecutive month, something that hasn't happened in more than two years. The improvement reflected record U.S. exports and a big drop in the country's foreign oil bill.

Time to buy $, pound lost almost 100 ticks on the news.

1 U.K. £ =

1.8893

Their TD has narrowed because of the devalued $(cheaper exports) and a draconian run of IR hikes(lower consumption).

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  • 342 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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