Blinkered Bears?

[Herts]

You're mostly bears who only see what you want to see and woe betide any bulls who inadvertently wander in with a countering viewpoint - discuss

ps interesting article from Reuters this morning

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales grew at a faster pace in the first three months of this year, with the number of sales up by over a third on a year ago, official figures showed on Tuesday.

The Land Registry, a government agency which records details of all property transactions, said house prices rose 5.05 percent in January to March compared with the same period a year earlier.

That was up from a 4.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005 and took the average house price in England and Wales to 192,745 pounds.

The rise in house prices in the first three months of this year was less than half the 10.27 percent recorded in January-March 2005, while sales volumes were up more than 37 percent on the year.

Surveys have shown house price inflation picking up since the Bank of England cut interest rates last August, although it is still a long way off the heady double-digit growth rates of two years ago when the property market was at its peak.

In London, the average house price rose by 6.29 percent in January-March from a year ago to 306,661 pounds, with the volume of sales up nearly 41 percent, the Land Registry said.

The data are based on actual sales completions but tend to lag other indicators such as the monthly house price surveys from mortgage lenders Halifax and Nationwide.

The latest Halifax survey showed UK house prices rose 2.0 percent on the month in April -- their biggest monthly jump in two years -- while the annual rate was 8.0 percent -- its highest in 13 months.

The Nationwide survey for the same month, however, showed house price growth slowed in April from the previous month.

[Warwickshire Lad]

Bears are taking more of a medium-long term view rather than this short-term credit-fuelled bullishness.

[Rachman]

Bears are taking more of a medium-long term view rather than this short-term credit-fuelled bullishness.

Right, so why do they seize on every single piece of negative information and shout from their [rented] rooftops about it then ?

[Badger]

Using an article about rising house prices to prove that there won't be a crash, is like saying a dam won't break because of how much water is continuing to build up behind it.

[Time to raise the rents.]

Welcome Herts, stick around.......

[Herts]

Using an article about rising house prices to prove that there won't be a crash, is like saying a dam won't break because of how much water is continuing to build up behind it.

not exactly what I was doing but hey if you want to conform to the stereotype I was trying to present then go right ahead

[Flat Bear]

You're mostly bears who only see what you want to see and woe betide any bulls who inadvertently wander in with a countering viewpoint - discuss

Have you got any thing to say about the future of the UK property market?

I take it you are "Bullish" about the current housing situation, would you like to say why you feel property will rise in the next few years.

There has been one or two good Bull arguements put forward over the last few weeks, but they have, possibly inadvertantly, been put forward by moderate "Bearish" types.

Some of the so called "Bulls" on this site put forward such silly arguements it actually helps the Bear theories.

[RichM]

House prices quickly approaching 8X Uk average salary. As it's going up now, it will continue to go up or remain stagnant. Obviously.

How about trying to justify how house prices will stay sky high in a world with increasing IRs?

[HPCheese]

Bears are taking more of a medium-long term view rather than this short-term credit-fuelled bullishness.

Correct.

Different personal circumstances dictate different courses of action. Of course information is the basis on which (rational) people make decisions, and the purpose of this site IMO is to exchange information, good or bad, about the property market.

Posting a couple of hand-picked piece of information and asking why everyone doesn't use it as the sole basis for making the biggest financial decision of their life is pretty pointless.

A holistic outlook and a little patience could pay huge dividends for anyone able to postpone buying.

[munimula]

You're mostly bears who only see what you want to see and woe betide any bulls who inadvertently wander in with a countering viewpoint - discuss

What view of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, unemployment, Uk and global do you have to reinforce any view that the current UK housing market is not a bubble and that the risks to this bubble bursting are all increasing and not decreasing?

Explain

[apom]

You're mostly bears who only see what you want to see and woe betide any bulls who inadvertently wander in with a countering viewpoint - discuss

The Nationwide survey for the same month, however, showed house price growth slowed in April from the previous month.

Read what the Nationwide said about their figures.

Read what the IMF and the MPC said about the market.. See what AMEX said just the other day..

See where Halifax's own residential property went?

See what the HSBC told their high end investors.

All markets fail this is just a market.

But at the bottom, a fool at the top...

[jpidding]

You're mostly bears who only see what you want to see and woe betide any bulls who inadvertently wander in with a countering viewpoint - discuss

I'm a bear, however I would tend to agree that we filter out what we dont want to hear and place extra weight on news we do like. I try to be balanced.

I do think that most of the bullish news comes from VI's and has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

I have resigned myself to never buying a house in the UK if the prices and rents stay the same relatively. If I get married however my better half may well have other ideas.

[Herts]

Welcome Herts, stick around.......

cheers

It's like an ants nest isn't it. poke a stick inand look at the instant reaction!

I'm a bear, however I would tend to agree that we filter out what we dont want to hear and place extra weight on news we do like. I try to be balanced.

I do think that most of the bullish news comes from VI's and has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

I have resigned myself to never buying a house in the UK if the prices and rents stay the same relatively. If I get married however my better half may well have other ideas.

Thanks jpidding - you're about the only one who has attempted to answer my point. Nearly everyone else has predictably rushed into print in tones of moral outrage.

[luddite]

Yep, prices just keep on going up and up. Today's Harrogate Advertiser is testament to this, just count the "New Price" tags in the corner of each picture. Buyers must be telling agents that property is too cheap and can the please put it back on the market at a higher price.

Notably, Beadnall Copley dont draw attention to all this fire-sale nonsense but I've noticed a few changes across their portfolio this week, sorry, cant seem to post individual links from their website

http://www.beadnallcopley.net/

Property ref H10886 has just gone 'up' from £219,500 to £212,500

Dacres, have just put this one 'up' by the value of the stamp duty (not reflected on the website yet). Presumably because buyers just love that retro 1970's decor.

http://www.dacres.co.uk/res_search0905.asp

Daily Express readers must be chuckling smugly to themselves as the value of their own property continues 'upwards'. Quick! get on board before they finally disappear out of reach!

[AFineMess]

You're mostly bears who only see what you want to see and woe betide any bulls who inadvertently wander in with a countering viewpoint - discuss

...

It's like an ants nest isn't it. poke a stick inand look at the instant reaction!

Well, you did deliberately make a provocative statement, making an insulting statement addressed to the majority of users of the forum. Most forums would call that behaviour trollish.

I actually agree that this forum isn't particularly kind to bullish arguments, and I wish sometimes their arguments were debated a bit more... if only to show how they're built on shifting sand

But you didn't really want a discussion, with your opening statement. You wanted to poke a stick in and watch everyone get angry. Please do stick around, but try not to be such a troll next time.

[Cornwall Sceptic]

Herts

I don't know where you are from although I strongly suspect you are not from the UK as only non UK people would use the expression 192,745 pounds

Please share with us how you have become so knowledgable about the UK housing market - what is your experience in matters financial her in good old Blighty?

Maybe you could put some arguments in your own words - not just a summary report on the VI's statements for the last 3 months

CS

[Herts]

Well, you did deliberately make a provocative statement, making an insulting statement addressed to the majority of users of the forum. Most forums would call that behaviour trollish.

I actually agree that this forum isn't particularly kind to bullish arguments, and I wish sometimes their arguments were debated a bit more... if only to show how they're built on shifting sand

But you didn't really want a discussion, with your opening statement. You wanted to poke a stick in and watch everyone get angry. Please do stick around, but try not to be such a troll next time.

fair point - guilty as charged.

I do regularly dip into the forum though and I do find it irritating sometimes how smug and self righteous some of the bearish sentiment is. I take on board all the arguments presented, yet despite that the market fails to crash (yet). In the meantime, anyone who disagrees with the concensus bearish view is a heretic who must be shot down in as withering terms as possible.