F T: London Property Boom Peters Out

[Realistbear]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5d6edd06-e10b-11d...20abe49a01.html

London property boom peters out

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: May 12 2006 09:33 | Last updated: May 12 2006 09:33

London’s turn-of-the-year surge in house prices has stalled

, according to the Financial Times house price index, allowing the property market in other regions to catch up with the capital.

Recently, there has been a greater proportion of high-priced large houses sold in the South of England, which would artificially raise the measured rate of house price inflation if an adjustment was not made. The FT house price inflation rate, for example, is almost 50 per cent higher at 6 per cent without mix adjustment.

Edited May 12, 2006 by Realistbear

[Magpie]

One stagnant month after a 7% increase in previous 3 months...

I'm sure TTRTR is quaking in his boots as we speak

Edited May 12, 2006 by Magpie

[Realistbear]

One stagnant month after a 7% increase in previous 3 months...

I'm sure TTRTR is quaking in his boots as we speak

TTRTR may not be quaking but 21% are, and its early days in the econmic down cycle:

http://www.personneltoday.com/Articles/200...+redundancy.htm

One in five UK employees lives in fear of redundancy

12 May 2006 09:24

UK workers feel less secure in their jobs than staff almost anywhere else in Europe, according to new figures.

One in five (21%) UK employees still believes there is a possibility they will be laid off in the next year, according to the research which covers 9,000 full time workers in 18 countries.

Almost three quarters (71%) of respondents said that if they were laid off it would be difficult to find employment of a similar grade on similar pay.

[Shamus]

Bump - for the evening crew!

[Realistbear]

Buermp.

For the evening shift

[Magpie]

Buermp.

For the evening shift

Not entirely sure why you're so excited about this. The actual story gives a stagnant month following three months in which prices have risen 7%. Is it simply the fact that the headline gives it a spin of London's boom stalling? That may be perfectly accurate but it's not a fall, and it still leaves London prices 7% ahead since December. And the rest of the story was prices elsewhere rising more strongly than London.

It's a bit desperate to go on about this one.

[Smell the Fear]

One stagnant month after a 7% increase in previous 3 months...

I'm sure TTRTR is quaking in his boots as we speak

TTRTR's properties are in Wandsworth - which has risen by 0.5% in the past 6 months.

[FollowTheBear]

Not entirely sure why you're so excited about this. The actual story gives a stagnant month following three months in which prices have risen 7%. Is it simply the fact that the headline gives it a spin of London's boom stalling? That may be perfectly accurate but it's not a fall, and it still leaves London prices 7% ahead since December. And the rest of the story was prices elsewhere rising more strongly than London.

It's a bit desperate to go on about this one.

Eh? The only major area of gains was London, and this was down to dodgy Russians buying up half the town, not native FTBers.

[Magpie]

Eh? The only major area of gains was London, and this was down to dodgy Russians buying up half the town, not native FTBers.

The point is that the report showed rising prices, except London which rose very slightly in the month, and which has risen slightly in the previous three months - and Realist is banging on about it as though the FT article means London prices have dramatically stopped or reversed. Anyone who follows the London market knows it's fairly busy this year, and prices are slightly up on late last year.

I think there is still a lingering belief here that London "has to" lead to the country so there is a desperation to discount any rises in London as being just down to city bonuses, the dodgy Russians, VI lies or whatever. The truth is that much of London (decent areas, at least) has been stagnant for years and now looks less overpriced than outside London. Still might fall, but I don't think this report shows any great weakness yet.

[Nick T]

"Anyone who follows the London market knows it's fairly busy this year, and prices are slightly up on late last year."

BASED ON... what?

I believe that Cooling has started, and too many bulls are relying on statements and assessments that are now stale.

exactly, where is live in northamptonshire prices are down 4 percent in 3 months an have been going down since july 2005

All this talk of london this london that, places exist outside the M25

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

I agree with Dr. Bubb!

[Magpie]

"Anyone who follows the London market knows it's fairly busy this year, and prices are slightly up on late last year."

BASED ON... what?

I believe that Cooling has started, and too many bulls are relying on statements and assessments that are now stale.

Based on all the indices and the observations one would usually make - property coming on the market and selling at reasonable speed, a definite increase in asking prices (meaningless in itself but a sign of confidence, and stuff is shifting). A lot of buyers looking at property, etc etc. It's not a wild boom by any means, but it's fairly busy, more so than the same time last year.

I do think that it may be patchy in that it's busier at the low end (possibly a few more FTBs fearing being priced out), but maybe less so for more expensive property, but that's just anecdotal.

Incidentally I'm not a bull at all. I don't think property will or can go up in price by much more. I just tend to question the inevitability of a major crash. I think we could see stagnation (such as we've had for a few years in much of London already) or falls on the 1989-94 scale, and that which transpires depends on a lot of different factors. A lot of people here seem to be counting on massive nominal falls. I think it's only wise to take other possibilities into account in future planning, as crashes haven't always involved huge nominal falls.

exactly, where is live in northamptonshire prices are down 4 percent in 3 months an have been going down since july 2005

All this talk of london this london that, places exist outside the M25

I agree. But I talk about London because it's what I know, and this was a thread about London property. My personal belief is that London is less overpriced than the rest of the country and that many areas will see (and are seeing) bigger falls (in nominal or real terms) than decent London areas. I may be proved wrong, but I think there are good reasons for believing this.