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Rain'ard

Change In Mood All Round

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Don’t you think us house price crashers are getting like those `end of the world people’ who occasionally go to the tops of mountains, and when the designated hour passes, comes down and think ******* hec What didn’t go wrong?

I’ve felt like that many times, but recently, as I have been, before, have involved myself in conversations with all and sundry who would listen to me and ask “What do they think of the current housing situation?”

Unlike before I have had replies involving anger, ridicule and disbelief. This wasn’t the case in the past and anecdotally I think this is a significant change in consensus of opinion and VI pressure fatigue. I think the message for FTB’s difficulties are getting through and caution is now in the public’s conscience.

After three conversations today on a trip downtown, I am convinced there is a bearish change in the air.

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Randell,

I just logged off to go to bed and I saw this, so back I am.

But i won't be able to sleep tonight because some thing is bothering me.

`I can't remember what they call that stuff the makes a ring around the bath.

I wonder if you might Know

Please answer so I can drop off

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Randell,

I just logged off to go to bed and I saw this, so back I am.

But i won't be able to sleep tonight because some thing is bothering me.

`I can't remember what they call that stuff the makes a ring around the bath.

I wonder if you might Know

Please answer so I can drop off

Super matey? :D

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I do think that people on both sides of the HPC argument place far too much emphasis on little bits of evidence, especiallly on evidence that covers a very short time span. A long time ago on this board someone came up with the metaphor that the house price boom was like a giant ocean tanker. Even when the engines are put into reverse, it takes an awfully long time for the ship to stop moving foward and actually go into reverse.

Personally I believe that a rate rise is in the pipeline, most probably for this year. But I don't think it's going to suddenly burst the property market [wouldn't mind being wrong though]. It'll be one cut in the death of a thousand cuts that eventually returns things to some sort of sanity, but not a decisive blow in itself.

Billy Shears

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i think the good old public have accepted a slowdown/stagnation/plateau but not a crash.

i could deal with this, but its not guaranteed to sit still. knowing my luck the moment i buy will be the moment it starts to collapse. but ill see in a year. oh hum. another year off. no house but at least im well off and banking wads of euros and living like a baller loc. indeed. its agreed. proceed to smoke weed. never have a want. never have a need. im having money and blowin a hell of a cronic smoke.

so im off surfing again. its my only break from the hpc obsession ive developed. dudes. hello perranporth.

but im getting my employees to email/clock in at 9am and again at 5.30. i can keep an eye on things from the blue crush. and if anybodys skivving. there sacked and im going to say 'sacked' in a mike baldwin kind of way....

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I do think that people on both sides of the HPC argument place far too much emphasis on little bits of evidence, especiallly on evidence that covers a very short time span. A long time ago on this board someone came up with the metaphor that the house price boom was like a giant ocean tanker. Even when the engines are put into reverse, it takes an awfully long time for the ship to stop moving foward and actually go into reverse.

Personally I believe that a rate rise is in the pipeline, most probably for this year. But I don't think it's going to suddenly burst the property market [wouldn't mind being wrong though]. It'll be one cut in the death of a thousand cuts that eventually returns things to some sort of sanity, but not a decisive blow in itself.

Billy Shears

The problem is, that it's been a long time reversing and then you may not even get the nominal falls to make it worth while. Over the years I have seen many changes and turn arounds in sentiment to not take this too seriously, the data points to somethig different than a HPC at the moment.

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" the data points to somethig different than a HPC at the moment."

What data?

Do you mean the bias look backwards at prices from Halifax?

That isnt the data that I am looking at.

I suggest you start looking at: Builder share prices, and Gilt yields.

This data is current and unbiased and more useful than looking in a rearview mirror.

You are like the people who want to see stocks rise when a 12 months earnings report comes out.

The market looks forward, not backwards, you need to look at current andf future indicators

What about mortgage approvals? You could argue that these are forward looking and look strong.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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