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U Lot Are Right About Vested Interests

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Retired E/A I know told me today what it was like in the last crash, here are his words:

"Buyers dissapeared overnight and property was'nt shifting so I told people they've got to drop £30000, but they would'nt listen because the Banks and Building Societies relentlessly reported prices going up, or it would pick - up next month".

"This went on for years and it was only after a long time sellers started listening to me and by then their price had halved"

He's convinced B2L demand will shrink pulling the rug from under the market.

He's firmly of the 'this one will be the biggest since 1929' school.

Chearful chap!

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by then their price had halved

Chearful chap!

Lovely thought, but a long way off, and the circumstances of the seller must be desperate i would think. :unsure:

5 years time the cheerfull chap may see this scenario all over again. B)

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Well three people today have mentioned to me the front page of the Daily Mail and Mervyn King`s warning, and are shocked. They did not know what was going on and one commented " This is far worse than the last time", another said his firm has just rejected an application for employment by someone who has declared himself bankrupt owing £43k. The third a housewife said I wondered where all the money was coming from for all those new cars which suddenl appeared on the driveways around here when all hubby and I could afford was our 1999 Rover. Well now they all know about the miracle economy.

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*CAVEAT* don't like agreeing with dogbollox, BUT,....

just like our teachers can no longer teach our kids basic 'rithmetic and 'riting, our politicians can no longer govern properly.

Because...

they were educated by the crap generation of hippy commie teachers spawned in the 60s.

:-) :-)

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*CAVEAT* don't like agreeing with dogbollox, BUT,....

just like our teachers can no longer teach our kids basic 'rithmetic and 'riting, our politicians can no longer govern properly.

Because...

they were educated by the crap generation of hippy commie teachers spawned in the 60s.

:-) :-)

Cool in a Kaftan - Love and Peace man.... :lol:

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"they were educated by the crap generation of hippy commie teachers spawned in the 60s."

Really? - I thought the Feudal scum went to Eton and retired to their polo estates while the civil servant monkeys got there via PPE at coxbridge....

Of course this could just be a crude stereotype.

The loony lefties only got hold of education for the proles, not the elite.

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Cool in a Kaftan - Love and Peace man.... :lol:

Soon we'll all be hippy, yippy-trippy. No one needs a wardrobe when you're in the buff ... :D

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*CAVEAT* don't like agreeing with dogbollox, BUT,....

just like our teachers can no longer teach our kids basic 'rithmetic and 'riting, our politicians can no longer govern properly.

Because...

they were educated by the crap generation of hippy commie teachers spawned in the 60s.

:-) :-)

Ahem. Teachers CAN teach. It's just that they MAY not.

I'm 36 and a very highly thought-of teacher in a school with an extremely difficult (some on here might say "chav") catchment. Our results are excellent, whatever crack-pot method the government devises to measure them with.

I went through the ex-hippy teachers phase and consider my own (state comprehensive) education to have been excellent.

So, go easy on teachers! They ain't stoopid.

However, I agree that the politicians in control of Britain at present do leave something to be desired...

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Ahem. Teachers CAN teach. It's just that they MAY not.

I'm 36 and a very highly thought-of teacher in a school with an extremely difficult (some on here might say "chav") catchment. Our results are excellent, whatever crack-pot method the government devises to measure them with.

I went through the ex-hippy teachers phase and consider my own (state comprehensive) education to have been excellent.

So, go easy on teachers! They ain't stoopid.

However, I agree that the politicians in control of Britain at present do leave something to be desired...

Teachers do a hard mostly unrewarding job. Something I could never do and I should know FFS.

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Guest horace

So, go easy on teachers! They ain't stoopid.

However, I agree that the politicians in control of Britain at present do leave something to be desired...

Did you say "I agree that the politicians in control of Britain".... What?? The only things they control is their expense claims certainly not the UK. Prescott in control??? Ruth Kelly?? et al.

h.

Edited by horace

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Teachers do a hard mostly unrewarding job. Something I could never do and I should know FFS.

Was you a teacher before you became a doctor ? :rolleyes:

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Teachers do a hard mostly unrewarding job. Something I could never do and I should know FFS.

the seem to be rewarded pretty good.With a very good pay and holidays and a nice pension at 60

me on the otherhand need to fight teachers all the time i do jobs for just to get a decent daily wage outta them

wheres my 60 retirement pension and holiday pay and sick pay and benifits then?

and no government key worker scheme for me

yeah the have it rough ehh

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Was you a teacher before you became a doctor ? :rolleyes:

No my ex was. :rolleyes:

And its "were you a teacher" not "was you a teacher", but then again I aint an English teacher. :D

Edited by shakerbaby

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Retired E/A I know told me today what it was like in the last crash, here are his words:

"Buyers dissapeared overnight and property was'nt shifting so I told people they've got to drop £30000, but they would'nt listen because the Banks and Building Societies relentlessly reported prices going up, or it would pick - up next month".

"This went on for years and it was only after a long time sellers started listening to me and by then their price had halved"

He's convinced B2L demand will shrink pulling the rug from under the market.

He's firmly of the 'this one will be the biggest since 1929' school.

Chearful chap!

Tend to agree! I've got some good friends who are EA's and they say exactly the same thing. They are sick of VI spin more than most on here because they keep setting the expectation off the vendor. They are hoping that the press start turning bearish because the vendors who give him earache because they have not sold after 18 months may just start to wake up.

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the seem to be rewarded pretty good.With a very good pay and holidays and a nice pension at 60

me on the otherhand need to fight teachers all the time i do jobs for just to get a decent daily wage outta them

wheres my 60 retirement pension and holiday pay and sick pay and benifits then?

and no government key worker scheme for me

yeah the have it rough ehh

Let's assume "the" equates to "they" in the above post.

A few corrections at the end of your exercise, Homeless:

"Very good pay" = just above average for MUCH longer, more stressful working hours than many other professions. The top pay scale is, indeed, high (for Head Teachers:) but most main-scale teachers earn around £25K, like I do. The average wage in Britain is £23K, currently, I think.

"Holidays" are excellent; but they are expensive times to fly anywhere and you tend to be ill for the first fortnight, anyway. Or too tired to do anything.

"A nice pension at 60" - no, 65 or even 70 by the time I retire. The value of teachers' pensions is in decline, just like yours, Homeless.

"Key Worker Scheme" is a transparent con: in my school of 133 staff, not one has been sufficiently stupid to sign up for it. I know quite a few nurses, too. Same story. Do you actually know anyone on the Key Worker Scheme? Neither do I.

I'm definitely not saying teaching is a bad job - I love it. Even the roughest children are good company most of the time. But the "teachers get great pay and holidays" myth is just that - a fiction. Ask anyone who works in a school.

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No my ex was. :rolleyes:

And its "were you a teacher" not "was you a teacher", but then again I aint an English teacher. :D

I made one slip up you have made two. ;)

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Guest Winners and Losers

I made one slip up you have made two. ;)

The 'doctor' was his brother, remember? Talk about living in fantasy land. :rolleyes:

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I made one slip up you have made two. ;)

If you look at what I said I say that the jobs "something I could never do and I should know FFS." I am talking from the experiences of my ex against my own personal characteristics. :rolleyes:

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Well I'd just like to thank dogb for his post about VIs.

If you lot wanna go back off topic, talking about teachers and punctuation and premillidispensationalism and god knows what else, don't let me stop you :lol:

Edited by Sledgehead

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Well I'd just like to thatnk dogb for his post about VIs.

If you lot wanna go back off topic, talking about teachers and punctuation and premillidispensationalism and god knows what else, don't let me stop you :lol:

Fair point. My fault. Got defensive 'bout me job... doh!

Back to vested interests.

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Retired E/A I know told me today what it was like in the last crash, here are his words:

"Buyers dissapeared overnight and property was'nt shifting so I told people they've got to drop £30000, but they would'nt listen because the Banks and Building Societies relentlessly reported prices going up, or it would pick - up next month".

"This went on for years and it was only after a long time sellers started listening to me and by then their price had halved"

He's convinced B2L demand will shrink pulling the rug from under the market.

He's firmly of the 'this one will be the biggest since 1929' school.

Chearful chap!

The problem is buyers and credit hasn't disappeared to that extent yet. Until it does and is sustained, I think HPC is on hold.

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Retired E/A I know told me today what it was like in the last crash, here are his words:

"Buyers dissapeared overnight and property was'nt shifting so I told people they've got to drop £30000, but they would'nt listen because the Banks and Building Societies relentlessly reported prices going up, or it would pick - up next month".

"This went on for years and it was only after a long time sellers started listening to me and by then their price had halved"

He's convinced B2L demand will shrink pulling the rug from under the market.

He's firmly of the 'this one will be the biggest since 1929' school.

Chearful chap!

Your EA is correct.

Two months after I moved into my place in June (ish) 1988, I asked two EA offices to value my place. They laughed. They both said: "there is no price. There are no buyers." The media was still reporting prices as static in many parts, not falling.

It was a fantastic lesson for me. It taught me to understand the critical difference between reported transaction prices and prices (AKA "value") when no transactions are occuring.

It also provided me with the fundamental lesson of how significant volume is; that price is derived partially from volume - a lesson I wish I had learned the easy way!!!

The falls occur not because some sellers gradually find themselves having to sell (though that scenario is one component of house price falls and is related to the relative inelasticity of house prices downwards). Nor do they fall because home-owners become scared (as I had, by the time I visited the two EAs). Instead, the falls occur because when buyers become scared, buying evaporates and, with it, transaction volumes. And that happens before it shows up in reported figures.

To recap: the speed of the price falls is not set by some sort of gentle interaction between varying numbers of buyers and sellers. It's set by a coarse interaction, where fear can turn 99% of buyers into "sideliners" overnight. At which point.... there is no price, regardless of what government or lender reports say.

Edited by longjohn

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*CAVEAT* don't like agreeing with dogbollox, BUT,....

just like our teachers can no longer teach our kids basic 'rithmetic and 'riting, our politicians can no longer govern properly.

Because...

they were educated by the crap generation of hippy commie teachers spawned in the 60s.

:-) :-)

...disagree!!!!!!..the teachers themselves were growing up in the 30's and 40's and had a bit of discipline,the rejects we have in power now didn't even participate in hippy life,otherwise they'd know a bit about community.these guys were the geeks of the century and have been seduced by easy money and power(twas ever thus)

...the new generation of teens and 20's were spawned by the "no boundaries" brigade,and look where that has got us...the kids are f***in feral!!!

a bit of authority is useful now and again.....as long as it ain't abused.

what we have now is government that want's to be all-knowing etc,but the best way to deal with these chav's is to put them up in front of a jury WITH the power of sentence......not some kind-hearted old chap of a judge.......PEOPLE POWER should set the ground rules.

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The falls occur not because some sellers gradually find themselves having to sell (though that scenario is one component of house price falls and is related to the relative inelasticity of house prices downwards). Nor do they fall because home-owners become scared (as I had, by the time I visited the two EAs). Instead, the falls occur because when buyers become scared, buying evaporates and, with it, transaction volumes. And that happens before it shows up in reported figures.

To recap: the speed of the price falls is not set by some sort of gentle interaction between varying numbers of buyers and sellers. It's set by a coarse interaction, where fear can turn 99% of buyers into "sideliners" overnight. At which point.... there is no price, regardless of what government or lender reports say.

Very well said. I think many FTBs taking on life-crippling debt to buy do so because they believe that there is no alternative and their situation will only get worse the longer it goes on. Once prices start going down, as they are in quite a few places of the country, the stretched FTB have the option of waiting, and the more of them that wait, the more prices will go down. An interest rate rise or two wouldn't hurt either.

Billy Shears

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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