Ruble Denominated Oil-gas Bourse

[tahoma]

President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that a ruble-denominated oil and natural gas stock exchange should be set up in Russia.

Speaking before both chambers of parliament, cabinet members, and reporters, Putin said: "The ruble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for with rubles."

Looks like attacking Iran will not be enough to keep $ as the petrocurrency.

[El_Pirata]

He also wanted to sell oil in Euros and got roundly ignored. It ain't going to happen.

[tahoma]

He also wanted to sell oil in Euros and got roundly ignored. It ain't going to happen.

Ignored by who? If Putin wants to do it, it can happen.

Edited May 11, 2006 by tahoma

[curious1]

especially if his gas companies own most other countries gas markets!

[Dr Doom]

He also wanted to sell oil in Euros and got roundly ignored. It ain't going to happen.

At some point it will happen. Not necessarily with Russia, but the dollar's days are

numbered. And when it goes, you can be sure countries won't be trading their precious

oil for toilet paper.

You say "it ain't going to happen", but it already has happened. Saddam started selling

oil in Euros. Wasn't too difficult for him was it?

[RichB]

http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/10...06/80039-bush-0

“Russia is a changing country. When my father used to talk about it, he would talk about it as an enemy. Today’s Russia is not our adversary, changes are taking place there. However signals are emanating from there which make us seriously question whether Russia will continue to build democracy or not,” said Bush.

According to the American president, he has friendly relations with Vladimir Putin, however “economic nationalism” is arousing concern in the USA. “We are becoming concerned with the ‘economic nationalism’ when oil and gas companies are used to achieve political goals,” said the White House chief.

I think its probably broadly related to the US attempts to break up the CIS.

http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/1...006/80059-cis-0

[Randall Herbert]

Why do you think gold is going through the roof?

Because currencies are worthless, especially the Dollar.

[Realistbear]

As the dollar devalues they import less. If they import less the EU and UK export less. Unless, of course the UK and EU export more to our Russian and Chinese "friends."

Think the Cold War ended after Gorbachev and Mao? Think again. Putin will strangle Europe who are now dependent on his oil and gas. What the Soviets lost territorially in 1989 they will gain financially in the years ahead.

Welcome to Russian and Chinese hegemony.

[HomeAlone]

What happened to the Iraninan oil bourse, I think I might have missed it's launch.

[Realistbear]

At some point it will happen. Not necessarily with Russia, but the dollar's days are

numbered. And when it goes, you can be sure countries won't be trading their precious

oil for toilet paper.

You say "it ain't going to happen", but it already has happened. Saddam started selling

oil in Euros. Wasn't too difficult for him was it?

The only consolation for the US is that their neighbours to the North have the second largest oil reserves in the world which Exxon and Shell are busy exploiting. Alaska has huge oil reserves that the Greens have so far blocked due to the threat to lesser titted bull finch and the Horny Beaver etc. The Coast of California has restricted oil exploration due to the Sierra Club lobby. And so forth.

The US need to jack petrol up to $5 per gallon (its about $3.50 now in Califonria, $3 in TX) and tax SUVs off the road. That would be a start. At least there are waiting lists for Hondas now and the Yoyo Prius is being driven with pride! It beats me that people in the UK are still buying monster trucks after Gordo placed a punitive tax on them which will send the Chelsea brigade reeling as they dig deep in to their skyrockets to find the extra 2 pounds a week to run their V8 RangeRovers and Mercedes Personnel Karts.

[El_Pirata]

Ignored by who? If Putin wants to do it, it can happen.

By the entire oil industry, including all Russian and European oil companies

[Randall Herbert]

Iranian Bourse was delayed a couple of months, be assured that George cannot let it open....

[Realistbear]

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...r/2178rank.html

1 World 1,349,000,000,000 1 January 2002 est.

2 Saudi Arabia 262,700,000,000 2005 est.

3 Canada 178,900,000,000 2004 est.

4 Iran 133,300,000,000 2005 est.

5 Iraq 112,500,000,000 2005 est.

6 United Arab Emirates 97,800,000,000 2005 est.

7 Kuwait 96,500,000,000 2005 est.

8 Venezuela 75,590,000,000 2005 est.

9 Russia 69,000,000,000 2003 est.

10 Libya 40,000,000,000 2005 est.

11 Nigeria 36,000,000,000 2005 est.

12 Mexico 33,310,000,000 2005 est.

13 Kazakhstan 26,000,000,000 1 January 2004

14 Angola 25,000,000,000 2005 est.

15 United States 22,450,000,000 1 January 2002

16 China 18,260,000,000 2004

17 Qatar 16,000,000,000 2005 est.

18 Brazil 15,120,000,000 2005 est.

19 Algeria 12,460,000,000 2005 est.

20 Norway 9,859,000,000 1 January 2002

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Canada

The United States has the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world, according to the Bureau of Land Management and holds an estimated 800 gigabarrels of recoverable oil ý enough to meet U.S. demand for oil at current levels for 110 years. Oil shale is developable given high enough oil prices, and the technology for converting oil shale to oil has been known since the middle ages.

However, the main constraint on oil shale development is probably going to be that Canadian oil sands are only about half as expensive to produce, and the US has full access to oil sands production under the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA

What is expensive today may not be so expensive once Putin tightens the screw on the West (that includes the UK and EU).

Alaska has more than we think?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/684442/posts

National Petroleum Reserve could hold 13.2 billion barrels

May 16 — The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska contains far more oil than previously expected, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated Thursday — almost as much as in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a battleground for environmentalists, the oil industry and politicians seeking to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

THE NEW Geological Survey assessment estimates that the recoverable oil reserves beneath the federally owned part of the reserve, which is the size of the state of Indiana, are between 5.9 billion and 13.2 billion barrels. Perhaps more significant, some 1.3 billion to 5.6 billion barrels would be economically viable at market prices between $22 and $30 a barrel, the agency said.

Edited May 11, 2006 by Realistbear

[Buylowsellhigh]

If Iran opens it's Oil Bourse the US Dollar will drop faster than a hookers drawers at the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. It's simply a case of supply and demand. A Euro based Oil Bourse will reduce demand for the Dollar dramatically ...eventually. However, currency traders won't wait for eventually, they will dump the Dollar at the first hint of trouble, as they have already started to do ...again.

Currently, the world is drowning in dollars, even a small movement could trigger a massive recession in the United States. There’s nothing remotely “conspiratorial” about this. It is simply a matter of supply and demand. If the oil bourse creates less demand for the dollar, the value of the dollar will sink accordingly; pushing energy, housing, food and other prices higher ...“If the dollar lost its status as the world’s reserve currency, that would force the United States to fund it massive account deficit by running a trade surplus, which would increase inflationary pressures.” ; http://informationclearinghouse.info/article12960.htm

Yesterday the Fed raised interest rates a further 25 basis points, thereby making it more attractive to investors ...and the Dollar put in a new low for the move ?!??? WTF ? Where is the news that is so important and significant that it would explain the big Dollar sell-off of the last few weeks ? Just because it's not being reported on CNN and the BBC does'nt mean jack. The Iranian (and now the Russian ?) Bourse is the only significant event on the radar ...or should I say, under the radar, that is capable of devaluing the Dollar by 8% in a month.

The media are of course 'baffled' by it all. Yeah, right. Each and every mainsteam news editor knows that the mere mention of Dollar hedgemony would find him/her on the street's looking for a new career.

Chart of the December US$ Future going back to 1992;

The yellow arrow is when word first got out that Saddam was planning to switch Iraq's oil sales from Dollars to Euro's. As can be seen, the Dollar sold off on the news. However, the media went into spin mode as they tried to reassure investors that this would be suicide and that only a madman (Hitler?Ahmedinijad?) would do such a crazy thing ...and so the market stabilised again, eventually putting in a new high.

The black arrow is when it became clear that Saddam was not bluffing. The Dollar went into severe decline.

The blue arrow is where US troops attacked Baghdad and secured the Iraqi oil ministry. The double bottom was registered when Iraq's oil sales were switched back from Euro's to Dollars again.

The orange arrow is where the Iranian oil Bourse was scheduled to begin operating. Word is it has been delayed several times for unknown reasons, but by all accounts the Iranians still intend to go ahead with it. IMO the US Administration will do everything within their power to stop this from happening.

If the Dollar does tank then I don't think it could be blamed on one single cause. In my view it's more likely to be the result of a combination of events. There are so many potential disasters just waiting to happen over there that you could go dizzy trying to figure it out.

---

[tahoma]

The only consolation for the US is that their neighbours to the North have the second largest oil reserves in the world which Exxon and Shell are busy exploiting.

Shale oil. Never mind the price of oil, it takes almost as much energy to extract it as it contains.

PS - good post buylowsellhigh. The graph is scary to say the least.

Edited May 11, 2006 by tahoma

[MarkG]

If the Dollar does tank then I don't think it could be blamed on one single cause.

I disagree: the cause will be... printing too many dollars. The world is flooded with the damn things, the only surprise is that it took so long for people to notice.

Shale oil. Never mind the price of oil, it takes almost as much energy to extract it as it contains.

I believe it's more like 20-25%, which is why it's only become profitable as the price of oil stabilised over $50 a barrel.

[Dr Doom]

I disagree: the cause will be... printing too many dollars. The world is flooded with the damn things, the only surprise is that it took so long for people to notice.

I believe it's more like 20-25%, which is why it's only become profitable as the price of oil stabilised over $50 a barrel.

The most optimistic estimates give shale oil an EROEI of 3. (33%)

It is probably much less than that when you take into account absolutely everything, like the amount of water needed, which most estimates don't take into account.

[Harry Sacks]

I disagree: the cause will be... printing too many dollars. The world is flooded with the damn things, the only surprise is that it took so long for people to notice.

I believe it's more like 20-25%, which is why it's only become profitable as the price of oil stabilised over $50 a barrel.

Oil shale It takes three million tonnes to produce 5000 barrel of oil. The volume of spoil left over after processing is twice that of the original ore. Plant requires huge capital investment and a water supply several orders of magnitude. Coal liquefaction will first be exploited.

[Buylowsellhigh]

the cause will be... printing too many dollars.

...but the need to print too many Dollars is a consequence of a combination of several reckless ongoing fiscal and political policies, any one of which could tip the balance.

The world is flooded with the damn things, the only surprise is that it took so long for people to notice.

I agree. By relying on the CNN/CBS/BBC media roadshow the majority rarely hear about these things.

---

[RichB]

Oil shale It takes three million tonnes to produce 5000 barrel of oil. The volume of spoil left over after processing is twice that of the original ore.

Sounds like an environmentally friendly way of fighting sea level rises to me

As for that pretty graph - whats the vertical scale?

[Realistbear]

...but the need to print too many Dollars is a consequence of a combination of several reckless ongoing fiscal and political policies, any one of which could tip the balance.

I agree. By relying on the CNN/CBS/BBC media roadshow the majority rarely hear about these things.

---

Maybe we would ALL be better off if the dollar collapsed and the world's currency was in the hands of the emerging powers for a change?

China and Putin's Russia? Surely we can trust these countries far more than America that has let us down in 2 consecutive World Wars. At least if America collapsed we in Europe would not have to keep selling them things and we could instead sell our products to China and Russia who now have the money to buy.

We can all rejoice in the downfall of the US and welcome the ermerging powers to their rightful place as the true leaders for democracy and political freedom in the world. I bet Putin's popularity scores are far higher than Bush and even TB.

[MarkG]

Maybe we would ALL be better off if the dollar collapsed and the world's currency was in the hands of the emerging powers for a change?

Or we could stop passing paper around and go back to gold.

We can all rejoice in the downfall of the US and welcome the ermerging powers to their rightful place as the true leaders for democracy and political freedom in the world.

Democracy and politics are on the way out. IMHO there won't be a single significant democratic nation fifty years from now, just lots and lots of proprietary states.

And we'll have much more freedom as a result.

[Realistbear]

Or we could stop passing paper around and go back to gold.

Democracy and politics are on the way out. IMHO there won't be a single significant democratic nation fifty years from now, just lots and lots of proprietary states.

And we'll have much more freedom as a result.

The Greek City State idea? Pure democracy and freedom as small groups get together with shared ideals and trade peacefully with others. Sounds good.

We may have to deal with the rising power of Putin and the Chinese first as I am not sure that they want to abandon their ambitions yet. The Greek idea was good while it lasted but then the stronger Spartans decided to subjugate the smaller states by military might. Then, just as the Greeks thought they had won independence the Romans decided that they could be part of their Empire instead. And the beat goes on.

But by rejoicing in the fall of the US and the rise of Putin and the Chinese I think we may end up dissappointed in what we get as neither of these two countries have a particularly good record. Mao was the greatest mass murder of all time with a body count in the region of 67 million and Uncle Joe Stalin was reckoned to have seen off 55 million. And all those E Europeans are still pleased they are not under the guidance of their Russian liberators. I am not so sure rejoicing in a Ruble controlled oil supply or a Chinese currency would be so good after all.

For me, I will continue to support the Western powers over the East.

[tahoma]

China and Putin's Russia? Surely we can trust these countries far more than America that has let us down in 2 consecutive World Wars.

Yeah, Russia was no use whatsoever in defeating the Nazis was it RB. Not to mention China, which had the crap kicked out of it by Japan.

In terms of Europe, America's late entry to WWII was a sideshow compared to what was going on in Russia. It's just that you don't hear Russians harping on about it every time they want a favour.

Edited May 11, 2006 by tahoma

[MarkG]

The Greek City State idea? Pure democracy and freedom as small groups get together with shared ideals and trade peacefully with others. Sounds good.

Democracy in the Greek sense, perhaps. But certainly not democracy in the modern sense.

Remember, in Greek democracy women couldn't vote and neither could slaves, who made up most of the population.

More likely future states will be purely proprietary and run by a corporate entity: be it a company or a hereditary monarchy. Unlike democracies, they have to care about what happens to their property more than a few years in the future.