Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

In my opinion we have now seen the peak of this bubble. Inspite of the comedy prices agents are displaying today the LR figures show pretty much no change and possibly even some falls in actual selling prices for a sample street of terraces or block of flats. Putting my money where my mouth is, I have a 'sold' board outside my house and intend to join the renting classes in the next few weeks. OK, I did need to move house anyway, it is not just a financial thing.

With interest rate rises now a certaintly and money supply tightening as the consumer debt risk is hitting home I can only see prices falling. However I must conceed that there has been a recent flurry of activity, could it be put down to people wanting to secure low fixed rates before they are gone forever?

So, lets move onto talking about the new seller packs that are due to come into play mid 2007. Now, when every seller is forced to have their property evaluated at cost to themselves (well, they will just put the price up, wont they) it should make it easier for buyers meaning that sales will be quicker and this may actually throw more fuel on the fire.

What I anticipate is a driver to sell in spring 2007 as the uncertainty of seller packs looms. Any property that is placed or remains on the market at that point will risk needing the investment of an extra grand for the paperwork and possibly several grand for the work that might need doing, hence sellers will be more inclined to accept a low offer rather than take on this hassle.

It is therefore my plan to cash in now and re-enter the market in spring 2007. Even if the crash has not hit the trough by then, it looks to me to be a good time to hold the upper hand in a negotiating. Any thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my startegy. I will ook at buying either JUly 2007 or July 2008. In Liverpool we have City of Vultures Culture in 2008. This, in my opinion, will be end of the OUTSIDERS speculating on Liverpool. I Expect prices to drop with HIPS and then drop even more when 2008 has almost gone.

Good strategy but like anything housing at the moment, common sense seems to have gone out of the window :blink:

TB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my startegy. I will ook at buying either JUly 2007 or July 2008. In Liverpool we have City of Vultures Culture in 2008. This, in my opinion, will be end of the OUTSIDERS speculating on Liverpool. I Expect prices to drop with HIPS and then drop even more when 2008 has almost gone.

Good strategy but like anything housing at the moment, common sense seems to have gone out of the window :blink:

TB

Not sure I can hold out until as late as 2008 for family reasons but good luck to you too.

There will always be local factors such as Liverpool's city of culture status, but I am interested in the impact of legislative change. In 1989 the abolition of dual tax relief fueled a frenzy of buying after which the market was exhausted and took many years to recover. What difference will this legislation make?

<off topic>

will there be additional demand for real estate in the Anfield area this weekend as Raffa looks to extend his trophy cabinet?

</off topic>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure I can hold out until as late as 2008 for family reasons but good luck to you too.

There will always be local factors such as Liverpool's city of culture status, but I am interested in the impact of legislative change. In 1989 the abolition of dual tax relief fueled a frenzy of buying after which the market was exhausted and took many years to recover. What difference will this legislation make?

<off topic>

will there be additional demand for real estate in the Anfield area this weekend as Raffa looks to extend his trophy cabinet?

</off topic>

To be honest... Anfield is a RUNDOWN area. Its all CITY LIVING or cheap houses in rough areas. The middle of the road stuff tends to be immune from the investors. But we will be extending Anfield to fit in all our trophies - YES :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All of this 'City of Culture' stuff is a load of old crap.

Bristol was trying to get it too, I think.

Why would I want to live somewhere just because someone else decides to give it some weird award?

It dosen't change anything.

If Bristol had won the City of Culture 2008 then it would still just be bl00dy Bristol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you like the idea of HIP's why not go to the http://www.splintacampaign.co.uk/ the main anti HIP group, made up of etate agents and VI's who stand to lose out, and read the BS on there, email them and ask them to put your veiws on the web site, they need to be told!

Thanks for the link Robbrent, I wasnt aware of the level of opposition. I am neither for nor agains HIPS - yet I must say that I feel obiged to take a stance which opposes Krusty ;o). HIPS looks to be a done deal so my interest is in what impact they are likely to have on the market. They do not replace surveyors so will not speed up actual sales transactions, but they will present a barrier to a speculative seller who fancies seeing what he might get for his property before actually committing to selling. What will this mean?

  • Sellers will be more committed to go through wih the sale hence set more realistic asking prices?

  • Fewer properties and hence higher actual selling prices due to supply/demand? Gazumping?

  • Seller will pass the costs onto buyers through higher asking prices? OK, only marginal!

  • Property with issues e.g. over access or boundaries will have to be discounted putting downward pressure on other prices.

  • Certianly a reduction in the number of chains collapsing due to sellers deciding not to sell

Your analysis or opinions, Ladies and Gentlemen?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect that the introduction of HIPS will see off the non-serious seller. In the event that there is a rate hike or two in the next 12 months, I would expect the market to flatten. I suspect prices will drop slightly before HIPS becomes compulsory, as people avoid the cost and hassle of obtaining a pack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect that the introduction of HIPS will see off the non-serious seller. In the event that there is a rate hike or two in the next 12 months, I would expect the market to flatten. I suspect prices will drop slightly before HIPS becomes compulsory, as people avoid the cost and hassle of obtaining a pack.

I'd suggest that HIPS might see off more than just the 'non-serious' seller - it has been suggested that the HIPS packs will only be valid for a few months before needing updating (at further cost), meaning that if a house languishes on the market for a long time (well over a year in the case of some in my neghbourhood), sellers will be confronted with an ever-increasing cost, just to have their house on the market; I believe this will have a profoundly negative effect on the market, with very many being discouraged from even starting the process

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have the main mortgage providers decided to accept HIPS in lieu of a survey or it's just added cost and keeping people in public sector jobs and nosying to put up taxes ?

Either way, it's not going to affect people except at the very bottom of the market - it's les than stamp duty and it's effectively another tax. If I sell, I am not going to give much of a stuff about a grand - it's when they start tieing to the value of the house that it will become transparent what they are up to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Either way, it's not going to affect people except at the very bottom of the market - it's les than stamp duty and it's effectively another tax. If I sell, I am not going to give much of a stuff about a grand - it's when they start tieing to the value of the house that it will become transparent what they are up to.

I don't know. A grand is enough money for anyone to think twice. People pay stamp duty when they move, so it feels like part of the moving costs, whereas this will be something you have to pay just to see if you can sell.

I'm not sure either way, but I think there is a chance it could cause falls, simply by doing the same thing that the abolition of double MIRAS relief did at the end of the eighties. That caused a schism in the market - everyone who was even thinking of buying bought in the preceding months, then the market went totally flat and the falls started (driven by IRs admittedly...)

This time what might happen is that everyone who is thinking of selling will put their property on the market, trying to sell ahead of the deadline, while at the same time vendors hang back waiting for it. Thus the market goes dead, YOY indices fall, and the feel of a crash is created.

Might not happen, but any artificial deadline like this has the capability to cause disruption in the market. What we might not have this time is the level of forced sellers needed to cause major falls. But it could be a turning point anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If anything I expect a large number of sellers to try to put their house on the market this year/early next year to beat the introduction of HIPs.

Stands to reason that there's going to be more houses for sale this year then next so if you wanted to negotiate a discount with the vendor, you might be better off buying prior to the introduction of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have the main mortgage providers decided to accept HIPS in lieu of a survey or it's just added cost and keeping people in public sector jobs and nosying to put up taxes ?

Either way, it's not going to affect people except at the very bottom of the market - it's les than stamp duty and it's effectively another tax. If I sell, I am not going to give much of a stuff about a grand - it's when they start tieing to the value of the house that it will become transparent what they are up to.

Nothing to do with the public sector this one, the mortgage companies are slowly coming around, it's the estate agents who object the most and the other VI's in the chain, I wonder why?

Expect more sellers before June 07, but no buyers as most will want to wait until June to save themselves a fortune in fees

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All of this 'City of Culture' stuff is a load of old crap.

Bristol was trying to get it too, I think.

Why would I want to live somewhere just because someone else decides to give it some weird award?

It dosen't change anything.

If Bristol had won the City of Culture 2008 then it would still just be bl00dy Bristol.

I agree wholeheartedly, the city is certainly changing - think we have about 45 cranes in the City Centre. The Liverpool people are NOT HAPPY THOUGH. I have seen many signs, saying CAPITAL OF CULTURE no CAPITAL of CAPITAL!!! and I know people are PI55ED off BIG TIME because a Manchester* Firm got the main contract and there are loads of Johnny Foreigners getting the work whilst the Merseyside tradesmen and struggling for work.

I personally think its going to be a BAD thing - we have a new shopping centre already with a massive Trafford Centre style centre coming. All the shops that have been here for years are going to suffer because of this. Its just going to be more expensive becuase its a fancy shop. I will STILL buy from the Internet regardless. The city will have more employment, but this is just retail jobs, which are the not the highest paid.

I hate it at the moment. But I will probably like it when its done. Im just sick of seeing roadworks and cranes!!!

TB

* Nothing against Manchester - could have been any city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree wholeheartedly, the city is certainly changing - think we have about 45 cranes in the City Centre. The Liverpool people are NOT HAPPY THOUGH. I have seen many signs, saying CAPITAL OF CULTURE no CAPITAL of CAPITAL!!! and I know people are PI55ED off BIG TIME because a Manchester* Firm got the main contract and there are loads of Johnny Foreigners getting the work whilst the Merseyside tradesmen and struggling for work.

I personally think its going to be a BAD thing - we have a new shopping centre already with a massive Trafford Centre style centre coming. All the shops that have been here for years are going to suffer because of this. Its just going to be more expensive becuase its a fancy shop. I will STILL buy from the Internet regardless. The city will have more employment, but this is just retail jobs, which are the not the highest paid.

I hate it at the moment. But I will probably like it when its done. Im just sick of seeing roadworks and cranes!!!

TB

* Nothing against Manchester - could have been any city.

Liverpool premier champions? With the likes of Cisse and Crouch upfront a house price crash is more likely.

I have picked up my winnings again this year from my scouse mates "Cisse wont get 10 in the premiership" bet which i offer every year. So thats 200 quid I have picked up on him over the last 2 seasons (and 100 on Diouff the year before). Please dont sell Cisse.

Sorry mate, but unless you get Owen backto get 20 a season a premiership title is out of your range.

Great cup final and congratulations on the result. Gerrard, what a player, i hope he decides to play at the world cup

Edited by Dubai Exile

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.