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Max Power

Why House Prices Will Keep Rising Till 2012

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Been mulling over the Land Reg figures which seem to indicate that in the main, despite the stagnation in the market, there's enough buyers with the will and the money and wage expectations to keep the market alive.

And then I remembered that we've got the Olympics coming for 2012. There'll be cash flowing into london for years before-hand, people coming here to build and work, it'll all be good. Except for house prices.

The market looks like it's going to stagnate for a bit longer, and once the current low IR period draws to a close there'll be the Olympics to keep London, and by extension the whole UK market afloat with buoyant expectation and cash.

I see no crash :huh:

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Been mulling over the Land Reg figures which seem to indicate that in the main, despite the stagnation in the market, there's enough buyers with the will and the money and wage expectations to keep the market alive.

And then I remembered that we've got the Olympics coming for 2012. There'll be cash flowing into london for years before-hand, people coming here to build and work, it'll all be good. Except for house prices.

The market looks like it's going to stagnate for a bit longer, and once the current low IR period draws to a close there'll be the Olympics to keep London, and by extension the whole UK market afloat with buoyant expectation and cash.

I see no crash :huh:

The olympics happening in London will keep the whole country afloat? Really? I can see property prices staying up in the area near the olympic site, but I'd say that even that is unlikely.

Something to compare with would be the house prices in Atlanta, where the 1996 Olympics were held. Did they manage to avoid the 1989/1990 crash? DId the whole of America avoid the 1989/1990 crash because the Olympics were coming?

Billy Shears

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House prices won't crash in my town now, cos Jackie Chan is coming to film!

Edited by OzzMosiz

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Been mulling over the Land Reg figures which seem to indicate that in the main, despite the stagnation in the market, there's enough buyers with the will and the money and wage expectations to keep the market alive.

And then I remembered that we've got the Olympics coming for 2012. There'll be cash flowing into london for years before-hand, people coming here to build and work, it'll all be good. Except for house prices.

The market looks like it's going to stagnate for a bit longer, and once the current low IR period draws to a close there'll be the Olympics to keep London, and by extension the whole UK market afloat with buoyant expectation and cash.

I see no crash :huh:

I see no brain.

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Barcelona, Sydney and Athens all saw house prices rise by more than 50% in the five years before the games.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4656927.stm

1992: Barcelona +131% (Spain +83%)

1996: Atlanta +19% (USA +13%)

2000: Sydney +50% (Australia +39%)

2004: Athens +63% (Greece +55%)

Source: Halifax (Rises over the five years prior to the games)

I see a trend.

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I am sure that the economics are in place for property to increase by 10% per annum each year for at least the next ten years.

The average price of a property should be around 3.5 times annual earning, they currenly average less than half annual earning as a ratio of average wages.

Congestion charging should be in place, in order that the roads are cleared of the riff raff.

Enough of that, I'm off to sh4g the new girl in the office, catch you later.

John Prescott xx

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Guest Winners and Losers

Barcelona, Sydney and Athens all saw house prices rise by more than 50% in the five years before the games.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4656927.stm

1992: Barcelona +131% (Spain +83%)

1996: Atlanta +19% (USA +13%)

2000: Sydney +50% (Australia +39%)

2004: Athens +63% (Greece +55%)

Source: Halifax (Rises over the five years prior to the games)

I see a trend.

I see a global property boom.

I wonder how property fares during Olympics that are taking place during a recession or HPC? Oh well, we only have until 2012 to find out. ;)

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Well, does anyone have any counter examples? I've no reason to trust the Halifacts numbers particularly, but is there anyone with a set of numbers showing a housing bust or recession for a country hosting the olympics? Or the host city prices rising whilst the country's went down?

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Well, does anyone have any counter examples? I've no reason to trust the Halifacts numbers particularly, but is there anyone with a set of numbers showing a housing bust or recession for a country hosting the olympics? Or the host city prices rising whilst the country's went down?

House prices in the USA do not typically show nominal falls, the falls are in real values.

Not only did house prices fall in real terms in 1989, seven years before the Olympics, there is also a sharp downward trend in HPI just before the Olympics themselves.

ushousepricesyoy.gif

Billy Shears

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Well, does anyone have any counter examples? [Max Power]

Why look to countries that have very different housing markets to the UK when we have a near perfect comparator here at home? Relative to the size of the city and regional economy, the 2002 Commonwealth Games in Manchester were similar in scale to what the 2012 Olympics will be for London. The Manchester games did not have any noticeable impact on local or regional house prices -- prior to 2002 they continued to rise at a similarly gentle rate as those in Leeds on the other side of the Pennines.

'Trend in Average Prices in MANCHESTER -- All Properties':

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/man...es/price_trend/

'Trend in Average Prices in LEEDS -- All Properties':

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/lee...es/price_trend/

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Been mulling over the Land Reg figures which seem to indicate that in the main, despite the stagnation in the market, there's enough buyers with the will and the money and wage expectations to keep the market alive.

And then I remembered that we've got the Olympics coming for 2012. There'll be cash flowing into london for years before-hand, people coming here to build and work, it'll all be good. Except for house prices.

The market looks like it's going to stagnate for a bit longer, and once the current low IR period draws to a close there'll be the Olympics to keep London, and by extension the whole UK market afloat with buoyant expectation and cash.

I see no crash :huh:

It never ceases to amaze me that for all the supposedly cosmopolitan goings on in London, some if it's citizens can be incredibly parochial.

NDL

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Barcelona, Sydney and Athens all saw house prices rise by more than 50% in the five years before the games.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4656927.stm

1992: Barcelona +131% (Spain +83%)

1996: Atlanta +19% (USA +13%)

2000: Sydney +50% (Australia +39%)

2004: Athens +63% (Greece +55%)

Source: Halifax (Rises over the five years prior to the games)

I see a trend.

Hi,

Nice one. That was also during the period of one of the world's largest economic booms in the last century so it is a little tentative. Montreal are still paying for the 1976 olympics. Seoul has also cost the Koreans significantly for the future with their olympics adventure. Greece has gone on record to say that signifciant debts were run up, going forward for future, during the euro footy chamionship. I really hope the debt level's experienced by other olympian nations is not suffered by London ........... there isn't any spare fuel in the tank as things stand.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3649268.stm

Greek debt spirals after Olympics

http://www.creativeresistance.ca/awareness...ames-jill-m.htm

A History of the Cost of Hosting the Olympic Games

BARCELONA 1992 Budget: $7.5 billion (gov稚 & private) Debt: $20 million

(abcnews.com)

The cost of the games was an economic drain that deepened a downward

economic spiral which took Spain more than four years from which to recover.

SYDNEY 2000

Quotes from the Auditor General of New South Wales Report on Sydney (2000)

Olympics:

Games that were billed as self-financing by the politicians were ranked as a

$2.3-billion loss.

So there you have it. Nearly every nation hosting the Olympics has suffered severe debts. What do you think of that?

Edited by boom_and_bust

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Guest Winners and Losers

SYDNEY 2000

Quotes from the Auditor General of New South Wales Report on Sydney (2000)

Olympics:

Games that were billed as self-financing by the politicians were ranked as a

$2.3-billion loss.

So there you have it. Nearly every nation hosting the Olympics has suffered severe debts. What do you think of that?

I rest my case. Thank you all for coming. ;)

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Barcelona, Sydney and Athens all saw house prices rise by more than 50% in the five years before the games.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4656927.stm

1992: Barcelona +131% (Spain +83%)

1996: Atlanta +19% (USA +13%)

2000: Sydney +50% (Australia +39%)

2004: Athens +63% (Greece +55%)

Source: Halifax (Rises over the five years prior to the games)

I see a trend.

Yeah but, no but, yeah but, we can't afford the damn things already! So yes, layer on the Olympics on top of an already overheated market. And no, people won't pay half a million quid for a studio flat in the east end.

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Barcelona, Sydney and Athens all saw house prices rise by more than 50% in the five years before the games.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4656927.stm

1992: Barcelona +131% (Spain +83%)

1996: Atlanta +19% (USA +13%)

2000: Sydney +50% (Australia +39%)

2004: Athens +63% (Greece +55%)

Source: Halifax (Rises over the five years prior to the games)

I see a trend.

And these figures are growth over 5 years? To get 50% growth over 5 years takes about 8% growth YoY.

You quote the figures for the entire country and the host city. So the difference between the two is:

1992: Barcelona 48% - yes this one is high, but so was the whole country rise, most of which can't be attributed to the Olympics.

1996: Atlanta 6%

2000: Sydney 11%

2004: Athens 8%

So you're saying that the host cities grew by - let's be generous - 10% beyond their respective countries. Over 5 years. And not all of this growth can be attributed to the Olympics. And most of these cities tend to lead their countries in any case. Is the growth inflation adjusted?

I don't see much at all.

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