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cash_buyer

Prices Falling At The Higher End Of The Market

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I have been keeping a very close eye on properties in the higher price bracket in my area. Asking prices have been coming down over the last year.

The following property came on at 650K and dropped to a "guide" price of 550K. There are 4 other properties for sale in the same complex.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-713...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

A quick check on houseprices.co.uk shows that the last property was for sold of 673K in 2004.

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=hp8+4ry&n=10

Also in another part of my area, "Hawks Nest" sold for 90K less than it sold a year ago and around 180K less than the asking price.

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=manor+road%2C+penn&n=10

Edited by cash_buyer

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I have been keeping a very close eye on properties in the higher price bracket in my area. Asking prices have been coming down over the last year.

The following property came on at 650K and dropped to a "guide" price of 550K. There are 4 other properties for sale in the same complex.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-713...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

A quick check on houseprices.co.uk shows that the last property was for sold of 673K in 2004.

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=hp8+4ry&n=10

Also in another part of my area, "Hawks Nest" sold for 90K less than it sold a year ago and around 180K less than the asking price.

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=manor+road%2C+penn&n=10

problem is. the higher up the market you go, the more chance there is for wide variations, houses are less likely to be alike, same condition, size etc. Plus you don't know whether the resale of Hawk's Nest did not include half the garden that was sold off and built 4 houses in last year (well I don't anyway). you have to know the properties and the circumstances to be able to make these sort of comments. Ot it could just be somebody paid too much last time. Was that price out of kilter a year ago ? I see it also sold for £543 in 2000 - from the details you post, it looks like it's had the same effect as London, price rises till 2002, then relative stability/stagnation then someone paid a lot more in 2005 and got burned beause they wrongly predicted a rise in price.

A 15% spread in price between two properties could be reasonable, one could have field views, the other everyone has to pass and in front of the main road/garages.

Look at this street

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=kt11+2ph&n=10

If you don't know it, you would say that prices fell by 25% - but if you do, you'll know that 18 is tiny compared to the others and the other cheaper sales needed well over £100K spending on them.

Edited by Rachman

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I have been keeping a very close eye on properties in the higher price bracket in my area. Asking prices have been coming down over the last year.

The following property came on at 650K and dropped to a "guide" price of 550K. There are 4 other properties for sale in the same complex.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-713...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

A quick check on houseprices.co.uk shows that the last property was for sold of 673K in 2004.

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=hp8+4ry&n=10

Also in another part of my area, "Hawks Nest" sold for 90K less than it sold a year ago and around 180K less than the asking price.

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=manor+road%2C+penn&n=10

Not in London as far as I can see.

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I have to agree I am afraid. I am in the market for a house currently priced at around 275-300k (and will buy after a 30% fall--22% more to go). According to the latest LR stats detached homes in my area (Straftord) fell 8.2% in the last Q. Since the average detached home is close to the 300k mark it does seem that the top end is falling faster. Semis indicate HPI of 1.1% which suggests that the cheaper properties are not falling at all but show a slight increase.

On the other hand a quick check on flats and I see a drop of 2.6% and terraces down 5.3%. So I suppose the overall market is sharply down and not just upper end homes although the detached are currently plunging the most. Last Q the LR showed a decline of just 7.0% so I have to be grateful for the slight increase to the downside.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region5.stm?d

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I have to agree I am afraid. I am in the market for a house currently priced at around 275-300k (and will buy after a 30% fall--22% more to go). According to the latest LR stats detached homes in my area (Straftord) fell 8.2% in the last Q. Since the average detached home is close to the 300k mark it does seem that the top end is falling faster. Semis indicate HPI of 1.1% which suggests that the cheaper properties are not falling at all but show a slight increase.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region5.stm?d

this is presumably Stratford with irritating Americans, not drugdealing Somalians.

But that's the point, prices in placed like that topped a while ago, as people increased their leverage and paid OTT for what wages will sustain - London has not done this and so is not falling. Prime parts outside it are NOT falling either.

With respect, where are the £50K to £100Kplus jobs near Stratford ? There are not that many [are there ?]

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I also agree

Like RB we are in the market for another property but won't until prices have corrected - SW Cornwall is going down apart from St Ives

Our dream property (which we can't afford) is dropping fast

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-686...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

Listed 1/8/2005 at OIEO £650 dropped £100k by 1/4/06 if we wait another ? years we might be lucky

2 years ago this would have been snapped up - it is prime location - very, very nice

There are several more examples

CS

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this is presumably Stratford with irritating Americans, not drugdealing Somalians.

But that's the point, prices in placed like that topped a while ago, as people increased their leverage and paid OTT for what wages will sustain - London has not done this and so is not falling. Prime parts outside it are NOT falling either.

With respect, where are the £50K to £100Kplus jobs near Stratford ? There are not that many [are there ?]

Oddly enough the Straford demographic is quite wealthy. A lot of hi-tech, medical, chemicals (agriculural) around and its a commuter zone for Birmingham. Leamington Spa is also extremely wealthy with high house prices. A quick drive around some of the suburbs of Stratford and you see the kind of money that is around--it is extremely wealthy.

Interestingly my previous area is in the very expensive Waverley district of Surrey where a similar pattern is emerging. Detached has plummetted 6.4% according to the latest LR whereas semi's only dropped by less than 1%. Terraced are down slightly more with a minus 2.9% which shows the entire market is going down. Flats have been cratered with a 7.1% dive.

Surrey, as you know, is perhaps the most expensive commuter belt in England and wages tend to be at the top end. My brother-in-law lives in the area and his neighbour is Eric Clapton whose income may skew the averages a little!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/43ul.stm?d

Edited by Realistbear

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this is presumably Stratford with irritating Americans, not drugdealing Somalians.

But that's the point, prices in placed like that topped a while ago, as people increased their leverage and paid OTT for what wages will sustain - London has not done this and so is not falling. Prime parts outside it are NOT falling either.

With respect, where are the £50K to £100Kplus jobs near Stratford ? There are not that many [are there ?]

Rachman

If you think the world revolves around London you are sadly mistaken - there are many 50-100k jobs around Stratford - I had one until I moved to Cornwall 3 years ago

CS

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Rachman

If you think the world revolves around London you are sadly mistaken - there are many 50-100k jobs around Stratford - I had one until I moved to Cornwall 3 years ago

CS

Right, I know all about the expensive bits round Brum - spent long enough looking for my brother (Kenilworth in the end). There are plenty of decent paying jobs (in professional services, IT etc.), but NOT enough to sustain the entire market, the proportion of those jobs is actually quite low in comparison to the amount of property priced at that income bracket - hence the prices fall as people can't stretch that far.

I know what the lawyers get paid, the accountants get paid, and I know what a lot of the senior people in a lot of Midlands Industrials and IT firms really get paid (due diligence and disclosure) and there ain't hundreds of thousands of people making that money outside London ....

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Right, I know all about the expensive bits round Brum - spent long enough looking for my brother (Kenilworth in the end). There are plenty of decent paying jobs (in professional services, IT etc.), but NOT enough to sustain the entire market, the proportion of those jobs is actually quite low in comparison to the amount of property priced at that income bracket - hence the prices fall as people can't stretch that far.

I know what the lawyers get paid, the accountants get paid, and I know what a lot of the senior people in a lot of Midlands Industrials and IT firms really get paid (due diligence and disclosure) and there ain't hundreds of thousands of people making that money outside London ....

But there are a lot of high paid in the Surrey commuter belt and as I posted above houses are tanking there also.

BTW, I am a lawyer (retired) and can tell you that Birmingham is the number 2 city in England for law jobs with a lot of very highly paid lawyers. There has been a great deal of growth in the area with regard to the services industry which explains the numerous wealthy areas in the burbs like Solihull and Stratford for those who like country living near the City.

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Waverley is too far out to get much of the London ripple - it's relatively rural and it's too far for most City workers to commute. (I like Farnham though). It's got a lot of retirees and baby boomers from what I see. You also need a 50% price hike from the average Waverley prices to get near the bits of Surrey nearer to London and in commuting distance (Elmbridge).

Relatively off that table, it has very high semi-detached prices, but lower prices for other properties, especially detached, and given we are talking about the top end of the market, that indicates to me not that there are not high prices, but that there are not that many properties in that range (and so don't show big in the figures).

I am not trying to make this London versus the world - I am actually counselling brother to start building his warchest now to pick off a repo and move up the ladder at the right time (his job's secure)

But there are a lot of high paid in the Surrey commuter belt and as I posted above houses are tanking there also.

BTW, I am a lawyer (retired) and can tell you that Birmingham is the number 2 city in England for law jobs with a lot of very highly paid lawyers. There has been a great deal of growth in the area with regard to the services industry which explains the numerous wealthy areas in the burbs like Solihull and Stratford for those who like country living near the City.

RB, I know exactly what most of the lawyers get paid - a 6yr PQE corporate associate at a national firm is making £53K plus about £4K bonus - that's not highly paid when he gets double that in London (if he's any good) and property prices are only 30% less. The PPP figures are not bad, but there are not that many highly paid partners to lawyers - you know that as well as I do.

It's good money, but it's not going to allow you to step up to a £500K house in Knowle or Stratford for a few years, is it - even on two of those incomes, it's a struggle.

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Right, I know all about the expensive bits round Brum - spent long enough looking for my brother (Kenilworth in the end). There are plenty of decent paying jobs (in professional services, IT etc.), but NOT enough to sustain the entire market, the proportion of those jobs is actually quite low in comparison to the amount of property priced at that income bracket - hence the prices fall as people can't stretch that far.

I know what the lawyers get paid, the accountants get paid, and I know what a lot of the senior people in a lot of Midlands Industrials and IT firms really get paid (due diligence and disclosure) and there ain't hundreds of thousands of people making that money outside London ....

I'm not sure whether I agree with you - I know about the demographics of the West Midlands - lived there (ran and still do) run a business there - I'll have to defer to your knowledge of London as I'm not that au fait with the demographics there

Perhaps the herding instinct is stronger in the Capital it certainly seems there was some panic buying earlier this year - some of the financial pundits don't think it will continue

http://money.independent.co.uk/property/ho...ticle363013.ece

What you say is certainly true about Cornwall - it is suffering because there are less people coming down from up country to buy

CS

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I'm not sure whether I agree with you - I know about the demographics of the West Midlands - lived there (ran and still do) run a business there - I'll have to defer to your knowledge of London as I'm not that au fait with the demographics there

Part of my problem is watching brother try to keep the flagship car maker afloat and in the UK without the damned unions screwing everything up all the time. I see more well paid jobs shed and the pain continue for a while yet for the W Midlands.

Hi Rachman

I have driven past this house and it has not been split. Manor Road is very established private road with large houses on it.

I hope you did not do that on my account :)

So that looks like the seller last year did a fantastic deal and offloaded spot on. Well done him.

What I find interesting is that so many of the price rises on older houses seem to have been on little volumes, which will lead to spikes and consequent falls as there is not that much to compare them too, which given the amount of mortgage activity seems to lean towards less mobility and more MEW.

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Part of my problem is watching brother try to keep the flagship car maker afloat and in the UK without the damned unions screwing everything up all the time. I see more well paid jobs shed and the pain continue for a while yet for the W Midlands.

I hope you did not do that on my account :)

So that looks like the seller last year did a fantastic deal and offloaded spot on. Well done him.

What I find interesting is that so many of the price rises on older houses seem to have been on little volumes, which will lead to spikes and consequent falls as there is not that much to compare them too, which given the amount of mortgage activity seems to lean towards less mobility and more MEW.

Bad news about Ryton - as bad as Rover - our beloved Governemnet have done nothing to help manufacturing - I have every sympathy with your brother

Nice to converse - but I'd better get some work done now

CS

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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