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Why It's Happening

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There have been a number of posts lately asking how the market has sustained itself over the last 5 years.

I too have been amazed by this also, but I think I have the answer. Every person I have talked to over the last year who is/was moving has found that because they bought at the bottom of the last cycle, their current property has increased in value massively.

No suprises so far.

But rather than SELL this property, they are KEEPING it as equity against an even bigger mortgage to buy the next place.

If they are a couple, they just claim one still lives there (mail re-direct) for numerous tax scams and mortgage fiddle, rather than get a more expensive BTL deal.

It seems everyone has been up to this, fuelled by poor pensions, and numerous TV programmes and the VI press.

However, in my opinion, the clever ones are now selling up, leaving the herd to suffer soon.

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The BBC programme on debt summed it up last night

The young couple who were both on good salaries but we 50k in debt

She said "we were going to apply for another credit card to pay of the arrears"

HPI may be being maintained in some parts of the country but as soon as the banks get twitchy and pull the plug and tighten credit it will become completely untenable for many in this country

CS

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Although I did leave it a bit late to post this topic, I'm suprised TTRTR has not picked up on it.

Maybe he should heed the advice and sell up. Go on TTRTR sell in May and go away. FOR GOOD.

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Although I did leave it a bit late to post this topic, I'm suprised TTRTR has not picked up on it.

Maybe he should heed the advice and sell up. Go on TTRTR sell in May and go away. FOR GOOD.

Wouldn't TTRTR keep on playing the game even after selling. Sort of like how on Deal Or No Deal they keep playing after a "deal" to see if it was the "right" decision.

Billy Shears

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Surely the real reason prices have been sustained is that the market still has people willing to 'invest'. Until greed turns to fear there will be no HPC. at the moment I see some negative signs but its not imminent or actually happening on a grand scale

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I agree. Unbelievably some people are seduced by the combination of

1. cheap borrowing,

2. the leap of faith that the time they cash in, they will have made a packet

3. pensions are a waste of time

oh yes, and GREED.

I can smell a hint of the brown stuff as the herd are loaded into trucks ready for the abattoir.

They are not sure where the journey will end, but we all know there's a bit bolt gun waiting :D

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But rather than SELL this property, they are KEEPING it as equity against an even bigger mortgage to buy the next place.

I'd go along with that

I have just rented a house acouple of weeks back. In all we looked at 10 places

i would say at least 7 out the 10 (under more normal circumstances) would have been sold rather than rented

They are being kept as 'investments' however all these houses were worth 500K plus, so the yield is 4% or less

Not a good investment unless property keeps on going up - if property goes down, a lot of these places will hit the market, it only takes a small change in sentiment

Finally, because the majority are not 'official' - nobody really knows what effect this will have on the market??

Edited by 88Crash

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Indeed, when credit tightening happens a lot of folk are going to be in the doo-doo.

I'm amazed (and concerned) by the number of people I know who take out 0% credit cards, do a balance transfer and carry their debt around like it's the norm. And we're talking 10-20 grand...

:blink:

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They are being kept as 'investments' however all these houses were worth 500K plus, so the yield is 4% or less

Not a good investment unless property keeps on going up - if property goes down, a lot of these places will hit the market, it only takes a small change in sentiment

Property is a good investment long term as it outperforms gilts and is not closely correlated to equities or gilts.

Add to this the fact that selling a property and buying it back when the market has fallen (taking into account stamp duty, EAs fees, timing, hassle and CGT if applicable) means that it may be very sensible to hold property long term even if on current yield it is a pretty poor short term investment.

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Well I would have to butt in here.

There are two schools of thought.

1. The "New Economy" is real, and will last for the next three decades at least

2. The miracle economy is a fabrication of reality setup to justify Globalisation and the new American Empire.

I am for option 2, old School the whole thing is one big chirade and when it pops it going to be curtains for the Standard of living for everyone in the UK.

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Although I did leave it a bit late to post this topic, I'm suprised TTRTR has not picked up on it.

Maybe he should heed the advice and sell up. Go on TTRTR sell in May and go away. FOR GOOD.

careful!

The mods will give you a spanking if you abuse poor ol' sad ol' TTRTR.

That is, if he spots it, and runs to mummy.

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HPI may be being maintained in some parts of the country but as soon as the banks get twitchy and pull the plug and tighten credit it will become completely untenable for many in this country

CS

That was the forum consensus 12 months ago; it didn't happen. Banks responded by easing lending criteria. Much like the "BTLs will stampede to the exits" myth. <_<

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I think it has a lot to do with fraudulant mortage applications as well. Most people I know have lied to buy - times this by a few hundred thousand and this would be enough to sustain HPI for some time.

Never mind building more houses, we should be increasing the prison capacity for when all these criminals are found out!

Clangnuts

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Lets face it TTRTR is on a winner whatever (If what he says is true) He has a large number of properties and has over 30% equity in them. The rents leave him with 80k on top every year. If Properties go down in value he still has his 30% equity cushion and will be getting rents. He would have to have some pretty serious voids to derail the train. In 25 year (or whatever) he will have 3 million pounds mostly paid for by his tennants. House prices will not be lower in 25 years time than now......(well in imho)

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That was the forum consensus 12 months ago; it didn't happen. Banks responded by easing lending criteria. Much like the "BTLs will stampede to the exits" myth. <_<

No one will volunteer to walk to the exits, it will only happen if people are forced to go. There will be no HPC unless its forced. People will not wake up one morning and think, shit what have I been doing, this is mad....it will continue until its forced to stop

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No one will volunteer to walk to the exits, it will only happen if people are forced to go. There will be no HPC unless its forced. People will not wake up one morning and think, shit what have I been doing, this is mad....it will continue until its forced to stop

true, which is why the definition of "forced" sellers is not divorcees or people needing to move because of kids etc, as some people like to think.

Edited by Milkshock

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TTRTR has been the object of ridicule for many years on this board.

Every time he has been told he is on a loser, property has continued to go up.

In my view TTRTR is a very shrewd character, and has nerves of steel. He deserves to do well, he takes risks, and the risks paid off.

If it was easy to make money in property, then everyone would do it. The fact is, its not easy it is very easy to trip up and over extend.

I take my hat off to TTRTR he has been consistent with his views and despite lots of criticism he has proved his theorys we are not in a crash today and I would hope that he is home and dry he deserves it.

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TTRTR has been the object of ridicule for many years on this board.

Every time he has been told he is on a loser, property has continued to go up.

In my view TTRTR is a very shrewd character, and has nerves of steel. He deserves to do well, he takes risks, and the risks paid off.

If it was easy to make money in property, then everyone would do it. The fact is, its not easy it is very easy to trip up and over extend.

I take my hat off to TTRTR he has been consistent with his views and despite lots of criticism he has proved his theorys we are not in a crash today and I would hope that he is home and dry he deserves it.

Surely TTRTR is the victim of envy, pure and simple. People in this country love to build someone up and then tear them down. It's how the popular press exists. Britains hate a winner. It's what makes us British. I'll whinge about how shitty my life is, and deride the most visable successful person I can see from my limited view.

Clangnuts

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I think it has a lot to do with fraudulant mortage applications as well. Most people I know have lied to buy - times this by a few hundred thousand and this would be enough to sustain HPI for some time.

A few of my acquaintances have lied-to-buy. The others just earn a lot more than most people :lol:

Never mind building more houses, we should be increasing the prison capacity for when all these criminals are found out!

Invest in prisons now! The next big property investment ;)

Surely TTRTR is the victim of envy, pure and simple. People in this country love to build someone up and then tear them down. It's how the popular press exists. Britains hate a winner. It's what makes us British. I'll whinge about how shitty my life is, and deride the most visable successful person I can see from my limited view.

I can't believe it! TTRTR gets kudos on this site... my how things have changed :D

To be fair, I agree. Aside from his bear baiting, he makes some pretty good posts and takes a lot from some members on this site. Actually, even his bear baiting is quite amusing.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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