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For better or worse (richer or poorer), we bought our place a couple of years ago.

Like most people here, I think prices are due a correction, and our most valuable asset is no doubt set to depreciate as fast as anywhere else. However, it's a nice place, and we don't really want to move just yet.

So my question is: is there any way of hedging house prices? If I had 5 times my annual income in shares, I'd probably take a short position if I thought it was going to head south and I could'nt sell. What's the house prices equivalent?

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IG index used to have a healthy market in house price spread betting but no longer do according to them. I called them and found out their spreads are very wide and they'd only consider bets of around £100 per £1k houseprice movement.

They said this is because they can't hedge any net position they end up with.

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IG index used to have a healthy market in house price spread betting but no longer do according to them. I called them and found out their spreads are very wide and they'd only consider bets of around £100 per £1k houseprice movement.

They said this is because they can't hedge any net position they end up with.

Have a look at www.spreadfair.com. It has taken over from IG as the best place to hedge house prices.

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For better or worse (richer or poorer), we bought our place a couple of years ago.

Like most people here, I think prices are due a correction, and our most valuable asset is no doubt set to depreciate as fast as anywhere else. However, it's a nice place, and we don't really want to move just yet.

So my question is: is there any way of hedging house prices? If I had 5 times my annual income in shares, I'd probably take a short position if I thought it was going to head south and I could'nt sell. What's the house prices equivalent?

I'm planning to do the same. Sell your house with you in as the tenant. Difficulty is finding a buyer.

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For better or worse (richer or poorer), we bought our place a couple of years ago.

Like most people here, I think prices are due a correction, and our most valuable asset is no doubt set to depreciate as fast as anywhere else. However, it's a nice place, and we don't really want to move just yet.

So my question is: is there any way of hedging house prices? If I had 5 times my annual income in shares, I'd probably take a short position if I thought it was going to head south and I could'nt sell. What's the house prices equivalent?

If you are really convinced that there will be a crash then short or sell the builders such as Barratt or Wimpey. I think this is likely to offer better odds than any house price bet as they go on indexes. The problem is in a crash initially the better homes get sold first so intial falls in the indexes are understated. Awkward homes just don't sell. You could then balance this out with buying some good stocks e.g. gold miners, bp, indigo vision to gain a degree of market neutrality and then you would have your own mini hedge fund. But if you have bought property then you could just do the short - if you lose money at least it means that the price of your house hasn't gone down. I am thinking of doing the same thing (although I haven't bought yet, but under pressure from the wife to move to a bigger home other than our rented accomodation - the STR strategy hasn't quite worked yet).

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The problem with shorting the "average" house price is the average is such a misleading figure and dosen't necessarily indicate whether like for like houses are going up or down in value.

I do however think that in the crash I expect to happen the falls might be actually exagerated. That's because I think the good houses will just stick, the builders will have to sell their crappy new 2 bed flats so will lower prices and BTL properties (again cheap) will all have to sell as IR go up. The point being I think the cheapy houses will still get bought/sold and the expensive houses will just stick - this will result in the average looking like prices have fallen quicker than they have in fact done so.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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