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Magpie

Nice Bear Food

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I've posted on that thread that I don't really trust the BBC page giving land registry breakdowns. The mix adjustment is hopeless, the samples for local areas are too small to be statistically relevant, and I think the average calculations are sometimes suspect.

Having said all that I think the regions should give a big enough sample size to be at least worth thinking about. So I went back and looked at each regional result here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region1.stm?t

Almost every region is down in the last quarter. The exceptions are London (which is probably up enough to skew the headline figure) and Northern Ireland. Even Scotland and Wales are down on the last quarter. Presumably these quarterly falls are at least reducing the YOY figures (and a few of those are negative too).

The report bigs up the North-East on the basis of huge rises in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool (mostly concentrated on terraces so presumably BTLs...) but the overall figure for "The North" is down.

I don't usually do bear spin, but in this case these figures seem to indicate slow downward movement pretty much everywhere outside London...

Edited by Magpie

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Does not add up - the only significant fall was for flats in Redcar and Cleveland - down 16.9%, which given there were only 23 sales, could be one expensive development in the previous quarter and as such discounted as too small a sample.

Nothing else shows a fall of more than 2.0% in the last quarter, so the average fall can't be 3.1% in the last quarter. Or have I missed the statistical spin.

It also seems to show a trend for prices not being as high for detached houses in certain areas, and that too COULD be because the price range is widest for these, so they can be skewed for a couple of mega expensive properties in certain areas not being sold this quarter. Overall, the trend for the last quarter and the last year shows significant gains across the main sectors of the market and it's been on fire on BTL two up two downs in 'lesser' areas.Plus the figures on the sites realte to Q4 - they are usually down in any year as people spend for Christmas, not on houses..

Edited by Rachman

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Having said that, have those figures really even been updated?*

Everyone was talking about them on the land registry thread which made me think they were, but the only example I've checked (Edinburgh) seems not to have been updated. Maybe Scotland works differently to England.

Rachman, you're right that the North figures clearly don't add up - that's one of the kinds of anomalies that make me doubt that the figures given at the top are derived from the figures below. In general I prefer not to pay too much attention to the BBC page anyway for the reasons given. But everyone was getting depressed about the land registry figures on the other thread so I thought I'd try to cheer people up.

Edit - they do seem to have been as the bottom of the page says the figures are for Jan-Mar

Edited by Magpie

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I've posted on that thread that I don't really trust the BBC page giving land registry breakdowns. The mix adjustment is hopeless, the samples for local areas are too small to be statistically relevant, and I think the average calculations are sometimes suspect.

Having said all that I think the regions should give a big enough sample size to be at least worth thinking about. So I went back and looked at each regional result here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region1.stm?t

Almost every region is down in the last quarter. The exceptions are London (which is probably up enough to skew the headline figure) and Northern Ireland. Even Scotland and Wales are down on the last quarter. Presumably these quarterly falls are at least reducing the YOY figures (and a few of those are negative too).

The report bigs up the North-East on the basis of huge rises in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool (mostly concentrated on terraces so presumably BTLs...) but the overall figure for "The North" is down.

I don't usually do bear spin, but in this case these figures seem to indicate slow downward movement pretty much everywhere outside London...

Hi Magpie

You have to remember of course that these numbers aren't SA, and reflect the Approvals (Haliwide numbers from Sept/Oct/ Nov/Dec to Jan with most being from Oct Nov and Dec). Therefore there is alot of Seasonality going on, as these are the months when Haliwide use their strongest SA.

Here are last years numbers and this years QoQ numbers, and again London was leading the way. Prioces will rise in most regions next QoQ, and will certainly be higher by 3Q06

		2005	2006East Anglia		 -2.0%	-2.2%East Midlands	 -1.3%	-3.4%Greater London	  4.3%	 6.0%North		 -2.8%	-3.8%North West		 -1.8%	-2.7%South East		 -0.5%	-0.3%South West	 -1.3%	-0.3%Wales		 -2.1%	-2.9%West Midlands	 -3.1%	-1.6%Yorks & Humberside	 -2.2%	-2.3%

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Having said that, have those figures really even been updated?

Something is odd. If I look up East Midlands and Leicestershire on the page quoted at the top of this thread, then the numbers are negative. And the "last quarter" change for the East Midlands is -3.1%, which is crash speed [my definition of a crash being 10% drop in a year]. It says on the top of the page "last updated Monday 8th May", but that doesn't guarantee that the "last" quarter is Q1 2006 not Q4 2005 if the data has not yet been updated. If I look up Leicestershire, then the number is -1.6% and the annual HPI is -1.7%.

But when I looked up Leicester itself with the link posted the other day, semi-detached houses had gone up from 130K in Q4 2005 to 133K in Q1 2006. So what is going on here? Is it just the sample size differences, or is it something else?

Billy Shears

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Something is odd. If I look up East Midlands and Leicestershire on the page quoted at the top of this thread, then the numbers are negative. And the "last quarter" change for the East Midlands is -3.1%, which is crash speed [my definition of a crash being 10% drop in a year]. It says on the top of the page "last updated Monday 8th May", but that doesn't guarantee that the "last" quarter is Q1 2006 not Q4 2005 if the data has not yet been updated. If I look up Leicestershire, then the number is -1.6% and the annual HPI is -1.7%.

But when I looked up Leicester itself with the link posted the other day, semi-detached houses had gone up from 130K in Q4 2005 to 133K in Q1 2006. So what is going on here? Is it just the sample size differences, or is it something else?

Billy Shears

No it is updated - I rechecked and it says "Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2006. "

Yes, the sample sizes for a particular city or area are almost always too small to give a reliable sample, even before you go down to semis, flats etc. One very expensive semi more or less in a sample of 100 or so can push the whole average up or down. I don't think it's worth putting any credence in samples of less than 10,000 or so, especially without mix-adjustment.

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Guest Guy_Montag

North down 3.1% (Quarter), yet every sub-area in the North is up.

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The edinburgh stats on the BBC page (-3.8 last quarter, 3.8 annual) have

been like that for absolutely ages. I can't remember when i noticed that

first but it is definitely more than 3 months ago ...

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Hi Magpie

You have to remember of course that these numbers aren't SA...

Yes, that does make it look a bit worse. Does that mean that in these figures the second quarter tends to be stronger?

As I said I don't place much trust on these figures in any case but people kept taking them at face value in the other thread so part of my point is to take a wider look and realise that they are pretty erratic and unreliable - and whatever you do don't trust any sample based on a few hundred pieces of data.

The edinburgh stats on the BBC page (-3.8 last quarter, 3.8 annual) have

been like that for absolutely ages. I can't remember when i noticed that

first but it is definitely more than 3 months ago ...

Yes - it was one of your previous posts that made me pause for thought and check as they haven't changed. but I think the Scottish figures are on a different cycle...

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No it is updated - I rechecked and it says "Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2006. "

Yes, the sample sizes for a particular city or area are almost always too small to give a reliable sample, even before you go down to semis, flats etc. One very expensive semi more or less in a sample of 100 or so can push the whole average up or down. I don't think it's worth putting any credence in samples of less than 10,000 or so, especially without mix-adjustment.

OK, but I still think something is odd. Not sure what. Are there really so many houses selling in London that it outweighs the rest of the country to this degree? And where are the negative parts of Leicestershire? [Yes I know, I should search more, but I'm at work].

I've been noting the sample size problem (though I think I can claim that I'm familiar with it from real life) on my local area. If I look at the asking prices for properties on Rightmove then in the last week they went up quite a bit. But looking at them in more detail, prices of like-for-like properties haven't moved, it's just that a whole lot of houses from a nearby "more expensive" recently built estate of mostly large detached houses have gone on sale and biased the average.

Billy Shears

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OK, but I still think something is odd. Not sure what. Are there really so many houses selling in London that it outweighs the rest of the country to this degree?

I wonder if that is just bad weighting - London houses are above average price so pull the average up disproportionately? Haven't really thought that one through though...

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I wonder if that is just bad weighting - London houses are above average price so pull the average up disproportionately? Haven't really thought that one through though...

It could also be that houses tend to sell faster and hence more frequently in "hotspots" rather than places where the market is dead. But I'd want to work through some figures before adopting that as a hypothesis.

Billy Shears

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Tunbridge Wells

Average Cost: £269,641

Detached: £456,152

Semi-detached: £230,871

Terraced: £217,084

Flat: £200,831

Change in last quarter: -4.3%

Change in last year: 1.2%

Sales: 493

That has cheered me up no end!!!!

I'm reminded of the Far Side cartoon about talking to dogs.

I say "whatever you do don't trust any sample based on a few hundred pieces of data."

Bears hear "blah, blah, blah, falling prices, blah, blah..."

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I'm reminded of the Far Side cartoon about talking to dogs.

I say "whatever you do don't trust any sample based on a few hundred pieces of data."

Bears hear "blah, blah, blah, falling prices, blah, blah..."

Only problem is it is very difficult to trust anyone at all when it comes to house prices. At least their sample was close to 500. The Hackney data is based on 11 sells!!!!

As far as i'm concerned i'm staying with cash. The interest earned monthly now pays half my rent, won't be long before I can cover the other half with interest.

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Only problem is it is very difficult to trust anyone at all when it comes to house prices. At least their sample was close to 500. The Hackney data is based on 11 sells!!!!

Quite true - sorry, it was a bit of a cheap joke in any case... As it happens I looked at prices in Tunbridge Wells a few times and I got the impression it was on a slow fall myself, but it's not really an area I know well.

Edited by Magpie

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Phew!

Glad I'm not the only one who couldnt make sense of the BBC figures!

Lots of places I look have net gains/drops but then all the subcategories indicate quite the opposite.

What a cunch of useless bunts!

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Almost every region is down in the last quarter. The exceptions are London (which is probably up enough to skew the headline figure) and Northern Ireland. Even Scotland and Wales are down on the last quarter. Presumably these quarterly falls are at least reducing the YOY figures (and a few of those are negative too).

The report bigs up the North-East on the basis of huge rises in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool (mostly concentrated on terraces so presumably BTLs...) but the overall figure for "The North" is down.

I don't usually do bear spin, but in this case these figures seem to indicate slow downward movement pretty much everywhere outside London...

It's going to be interesting to see the figures when the North and Northern Ireland run out of steam.

Seems there's still a few more pockets for expansion in the bubble.

What's striking is that sales have been pretty good since the .25 cut last Aug, mortgage lending has gone through the roof heading into spring but on the back of that news it's ironic that so many areas are negative over the last quarter.

This could at long last become interesting.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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