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What Is Going On?!

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Even the most optimistic VI predictions for the year did not come close to this (RICS prediction +4%, Halifax +3%, Nationwide +3%, all ANNUAL rises)

In fact the actual rise +5.05% for the last QUARTER.

I had hoped that this was due to an overall drop in the number of sales and a small number of sheep people paying muppet high prices, thus pushing up the 'average' price. But apparently this is not the case, in fact the number of home sales jumped 37% on the same period last year.

So, what is going on?

(Graph from BBC Web Page)

Average.gif

post-4662-1147165340.gif

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Yes... but this is comparing the last 12 months. If prices were to continue to increase at the current rate you would see YoY HPI above 5% - but most, inlcluding mortgage lenders, are predicting prices to fall or be flat from the summer onwards. With higher interest rates I expect prices to fall, with negative YoY around Xmas.

I'll also predict house sales will fall to 2005 levels by the 3rd quarter! Oh, and don't forget the figures you see now are from people looking for houses 3-6 months ago! The Land Reg Q2 will also be positive IMHO.

Edited by Jason

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For what it's worth, I had two EAs round to value my house this a.m. One was a teenage scribbler with a £20 Tesco suit, the other a much respected and liked guy round here. The latter said the market had been going crazy, unsustainably so, until about the middle of 2004, when Unswervin' Mervyn's wise words plus the threat of future IR rises had abruptly "turned the tap off". After that, nothing sold "unless it was cheap". Now, however balance had been restored and things were improving again slowly.

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For what it's worth, I had two EAs round to value my house this a.m. One was a teenage scribbler with a £20 Tesco suit, the other a much respected and liked guy round here. The latter said the market had been going crazy, unsustainably so, until about the middle of 2004, when Unswervin' Mervyn's wise words plus the threat of future IR rises had abruptly "turned the tap off". After that, nothing sold "unless it was cheap". Now, however balance had been restored and things were improving again slowly.

Don`t tell me, you gave the gig to the kid in the 20 quid suit `cos he valued your house at more than the other guy.... :D

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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