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Australia - Weak Job Market Expected To Get Worse

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Guest Winners and Losers

Keeping spending like there is no tomorrow UK, it could never happen here. ;)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/weak-n...6940475360.html

The ANZ's job ads survey, conducted last month before interest rates rose and petrol prices peaked, led economists at the bank to dismiss recent improvements in unemployment as a "false dawn".

Mr Pearson predicted unemployment would soon rise from 5 to 5.5 per cent, giving the Reserve cause to regret last week's interest rate rise.

Paul Brennan, chief economist at Citigroup, said record petrol prices had not yet had "a diabolical effect" on consumer spending. But it was too early to gauge the effect of last week's rate rise.

"We calculate that an interest rate rise takes $2.5 billion to $3 billion out of household disposable income, which is equivalent to a bit less than half a percent," he said. "But the big thing we're looking for is how the property market reacts."

The weak retail figures for March followed a stronger January and February. The volume of trade rose 1.7 per cent in the March quarter, after adjusting for prices rises of 0.2 per cent, the strongest since June 2004.

A report by ING Direct and the Melbourne Institute showed NSW families are forking out more to pay off debts, and saving less, than those in other states.

Almost 20 per cent of NSW households are devoting more than a quarter of their income to debt repayments, compared to 15 per cent in all other states.

Nearly 8 per cent of the state's households were paying more than half their income on debt repayments and 50 per cent of NSW families were saving money compared with 55.5 per cent for households in the other states.

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NSW isnt representative of Oz as a whole, especially with their housing bubble which is worse than ridiculous considering the quality of life in Sydney that you are buying into.

The state is in recession, Sydney's infrastructure is a joke, traffic is at gridlock & crime is bad.

The city is haemorrhaging inhabitants who realise that you can get a lot more for your money in Victoria, Queensland & the other states.

The property market is on the slide there & its got nothing to do with petrol prices or a miniscule quarter % rise in the interest rate

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Guest Winners and Losers

NSW isnt representative of Oz as a whole, especially with their housing bubble which is worse than ridiculous considering the quality of life in Sydney that you are buying into.

The state is in recession, Sydney's infrastructure is a joke, traffic is at gridlock & crime is bad.

The city is haemorrhaging inhabitants who realise that you can get a lot more for your money in Victoria, Queensland & the other states.

The property market is on the slide there & its got nothing to do with petrol prices or a miniscule quarter % rise in the interest rate

I agree that things are worse in Sydney, but are you saying then that the other states are not going to see price falls? That rising interest rates and higher living costs will not affect them either? I'd say the jury is still out on that one. Each state boomed at different times.

The state is in recession, Sydney's infrastructure is a joke, traffic is at gridlock & crime is bad.

The city is haemorrhaging inhabitants who realise that you can get a lot more for your money in Victoria, Queensland & the other states.

Reminds me of London. ;)

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NSW is Australia's largest state in terms of population. Around 30% of Australians live in NSW.

It's reasonably well known in Oz that high house prices in NSW lead to people relocating elsewhere for this reason alone. The state of Tasmania and other non-capital city areas in particular saw an influx of residents and investors from NSW driven by inability to buy a house in NSW.

I have nothing against Tasmania or the smaller cities in Oz but let's face reality. The capital city of Tasmania (population 480,000) is Hobart (population 200,000). Heating is needed year round in Tasmania and even something as simple as attending a rock concert means flying interstate. Not a bad place to live in many regards but it most certainly is NOT a big city. By Tasmanian standards, Burnie (population 20,000) and Devonport (population 25,000) are substantial cities. It's SMALL.

So why would anyone who only left Sydney because they couldn't afford to stay remain in some regional area if it becomes affordable to move back to Sydney? Some will like the quiet lifestyle but many will not. No surprise then that already in Hobart there are quite a lot of empty houses for sale.

Bottom line is the boom spread out from Sydney and the crash should do likewise. In my opinion Hobart is one of the smaller Oz cities to watch for this very reason. Gold Coast is another due to the near total economic dependence on tourism and related industries making the region economically vulnerable (Tasmania is also highly dependent on tourism).

Perth and Darwin are too heavily influenced by local factors (resources boom) whilst Canberra is heavily influenced by government activities and spending. It's interesting to note that Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide are all showing signs of following Sydney, albeit with varying time lags. They followed it up and they have followed it during the stagnation. Why wouldn't Melbourne in particular (Brisbane at least has favourable climate attracting migration) follow it down? Melbourne and Brisbane have always been cheaper than Sydney whilst Adelaide and Hobart have been even cheaper. Why would that historic ratio of prices between cities suddenly reverse as Sydney prices fall? I can't see why it would.

Edited by Smurf1976

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Guest Winners and Losers

NSW is Australia's largest state in terms of population. Around 30% of Australians live in NSW.

It's reasonably well known in Oz that high house prices in NSW lead to people relocating elsewhere for this reason alone. The state of Tasmania and other non-capital city areas in particular saw an influx of residents and investors from NSW driven by inability to buy a house in NSW.

I have nothing against Tasmania or the smaller cities in Oz but let's face reality. The capital city of Tasmania (population 480,000) is Hobart (population 200,000). Heating is needed year round in Tasmania and even something as simple as attending a rock concert means flying interstate. Not a bad place to live in many regards but it most certainly is NOT a big city. By Tasmanian standards, Burnie (population 20,000) and Devonport (population 25,000) are substantial cities. It's SMALL.

So why would anyone who only left Sydney because they couldn't afford to stay remain in some regional area if it becomes affordable to move back to Sydney? Some will like the quiet lifestyle but many will not. No surprise then that already in Hobart there are quite a lot of empty houses for sale.

Bottom line is the boom spread out from Sydney and the crash should do likewise. In my opinion Hobart is one of the smaller Oz cities to watch for this very reason. Gold Coast is another due to the near total economic dependence on tourism and related industries making the region economically vulnerable (Tasmania is also highly dependent on tourism).

Perth and Darwin are too heavily influenced by local factors (resources boom) whilst Canberra is heavily influenced by government activities and spending. It's interesting to note that Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide are all showing signs of following Sydney, albeit with varying time lags. They followed it up and they have followed it during the stagnation. Why wouldn't Melbourne in particular (Brisbane at least has favourable climate attracting migration) follow it down? Melbourne and Brisbane have always been cheaper than Sydney whilst Adelaide and Hobart have been even cheaper. Why would that historic ratio of prices between cities suddenly reverse as Sydney prices fall? I can't see why it would.

Well put Smurf. Always good to get it backed up from someone at the coalface. :);)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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