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Annie

Mood On This Forum

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A couple of months ago there was a clear change of sentiment on this forum - bears changing to bull status (it appeared) and lots of disagreements. I know I feel more confident of a HPC with talk of interest rates rising - I'm sure everyone else feels the same. Glad to hear you people are feeling more confident ......

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Hi Annie

Yes I keep feeling confident, but there’s still no sign of a crash around my area. In fact quite the opposite, but I’m keeping the faith, relying on the laws of cause and effect, heeding seven years of lean. I wondered about the sentiment you referred to and I couldn’t believe that so many lost confidence in themselves.

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Well, there is no "crash" in my area, but significant reductions compared to last year. There are still many agents and sellers taking the mickey and trying it on, but most who want to sell are reducing. This is leading to a wide variety of selling prices for essentially identical properties. A discerning purchaser can easily see through the mist.

Some friends of mine put a pucker Welsh property on the market exactly one year ago. I warned them that they would never get the price they asked. They have now reduced it several times and still not a single bite of the cherry. In desperation they are contemplating setting up their own website to sell. I fear this is a futile act keeping in mind there are now more properties on rightmove than ever before.

I do not understand the claimed figures being put out by any agent, and not even the land registry. The trend is palpably down. I do not see how any reasonably savvy person can claim any differently.

VP

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A couple of months ago there was a clear change of sentiment on this forum - bears changing to bull status (it appeared) and lots of disagreements. I know I feel more confident of a HPC with talk of interest rates rising - I'm sure everyone else feels the same. Glad to hear you people are feeling more confident ......

Agreed. But I don't think we're there yet, I've just had a look at the thread about the Land Registry data which has dented my confidence a bit. Overall I'm still confident of a HPC.

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People on this board are living the crash day by day, all the ups and downs, clinging to every piece of news, then when more bearish news comes in on a particular day/week people get more confident in a crash?

Isn't this really the mentality that we seem to slag off alot, seems very sheeple like to me, theres a lot of 'faith' which i compare to faith in btl to make money.

Practice what ya preach and it might be a smoother ride :)

P.S im guilty of it to at times but then i give myself a good slap and look back over the *stuff* that makes it all enivitable in my mind. :)

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It's very easy to argue with the fundamentals and the economics of why all this can't be sustained, but yet somehow it is.

My own country has turned it's back on me.

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It's very easy to argue with the fundamentals and the economics of why all this can't be sustained, but yet somehow it is.

My own country has turned it's back on me.

It never had your back in the first place mate :)

There is no logic in being annoyed at data that has past by, if the land registry said prices has fallen 10% and prices we're still the same where you are then it wouldn't mean anything.

Dont watch it so avidly or it will drive you insane unless you can fully detach your emotions from it all. Try to look at it analytically not pationatly. I don't know why im saying cause i know that you know all that anyway (in the same way that i know all i have to do do jump 3 meters high is push hard enough with my legs, dont mean to say its gonna happen).

Try not to ride the waves of the news that comes in cause even the most seasoned analyst will get sea sick. Just do what ever it is that you do other than watch house prices, because at the end of the day you have no control over the prices personally, sit back, relax and watch the show, at the end of the day you have to, your not part of it.

All will be well :)

EDITED:

Git, you just made me late for work :lol::)

Edited by theChuz

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http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

While the news today is not great from the Land Registry, have a look at this link (go to the bottom of the page for onward links) about the state of the market in the USA. We seem to be the only country along with Ireland who are currently immune from reality. I personally don't think it will be long before we see some major changes here.

Grommit

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Guest Riser

It's very easy to argue with the fundamentals and the economics of why all this can't be sustained, but yet somehow it is.

My own country has turned it's back on me.

The fundamentals and economic reasons for a crash in UK house prices are getting stronger by the day. What we must wake up to is tha fact that it will happen through a combination of pressure to return to an affordability ratio of around 3.5 X income and devaluation of Sterling.

Here is a quote from a Chinese discussion forum which sums it up nicely, I love the way Gordon Brown gets translated as "Gordoom Braun" :lol:

Malignant Western Economies

..Today, the UK, Oz and US have generated false growth through monetary inflation. The UK for example produces absolutely nothing that anyone wants yet corrupt finance minister Gordoom Braun has boasted of the longest period of growth in history even as every single sector of the economy has collapsed or is in the process of collapsing. Trade deficits, household and government debt are the worst in history whilst national debt as a proportion of GDP is the worst in the world. Unemployment and bankruptcies are also the worst in history when the unemployment figures are correctly measured. Hence 10.1% growth in the UK's M4 money supply only produces 1.6% growth in the GDP because the UK economy has really been in the longest recession in its history including the Great Depression. The instantaneous figures give an real annual recession rate of -7.72%.

But with all other nations devaluing their currencies too, outsourcing to India and lower priced imports from China, the fall in secular GDP and currency devaluation is disguised. However, compared to real assets such as gold and oil, the devaluation becomes apparent. Gold was £232.63 on 4th Nov 2004, now it's £263.02 showing the pound has devalued 7.65% over the last 12 months. The 10.1% is an instantaneous reading and suggests the devaluation is accelerating and running at -9.2% per annum...

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A couple of months ago there was a clear change of sentiment on this forum - bears changing to bull status (it appeared) and lots of disagreements. I know I feel more confident of a HPC with talk of interest rates rising - I'm sure everyone else feels the same. Glad to hear you people are feeling more confident ......

Actually I feel worse. High house prices are undermining the economy. They also bring uncertainty to people without houses and hardship to many people with houses. The longer prices are kept at these artificial levels, the more damage and misery it will bring.

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A couple of months ago there was a clear change of sentiment on this forum - bears changing to bull status (it appeared) and lots of disagreements. I know I feel more confident of a HPC with talk of interest rates rising - I'm sure everyone else feels the same. Glad to hear you people are feeling more confident ......

But what you say contradicts what is happening. House prices are rising, volumes are healthy, money supply is up and the economy is doing better. We may well get a rise in IRs but will it be enough to bring HPC? Can we expect to see falls in nominal prices? I suspect not, although a crash in real terms would be good for most.

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But what you say contradicts what is happening. House prices are rising, volumes are healthy, money supply is up and the economy is doing better. We may well get a rise in IRs but will it be enough to bring HPC? Can we expect to see falls in nominal prices? I suspect not, although a crash in real terms would be good for most.

If you believe that then you really are taking the P!ss :P

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It's very easy to argue with the fundamentals and the economics of why all this can't be sustained, but yet somehow it is.

My own country has turned it's back on me.

Same down here the LR figures are better than expected

Perhaps the last dead cat bounce is teh highest or-

There are some very stupid people out there

CS

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If you believe that then you really are taking the P!ss :P

So you're telling me all the stats are made up? Is it all part of a VI conspiracy? Have the BoE, Land Registry all made it up that transactions are on the rise?

:rolleyes:

:lol:

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So you're telling me all the stats are made up? Is it all part of a VI conspiracy? Have the BoE, Land Registry all made it up that transactions are on the rise?

:rolleyes:

:lol:

Well, yes actually. New addition express: ( the one they did not want you to see)

campbelll7wr.png

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The longer prices are kept at these artificial levels, the more damage and misery it will bring.

The more I see people I know and love going into house purchases, whether it be FTBs or those taking on large debt to trade up, the more I am feeling sad too.

As someone who is holding on I've increasingly felt isolated (a common theme through my life in general) and there's only so much of this I can take.

:unsure:

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Doesnt look rosy around here - plenty of over-priced properties selling - even the buy-cheap, B&Q kitchen and coat of paint, then add £100k to the price lot seem to be doing very nicely :blink:

Some new build 6bed detached houses (which are so crammed in they can only just be classed as detached) have mostly sold by the time the foundations have been laid, even at £1/2mil each.

I think the mood on the forum is bad - a lot of people seem to have almost given up.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

Doesnt look rosy around here - plenty of over-priced properties selling - even the buy-cheap, B&Q kitchen and coat of paint, then add £100k to the price lot seem to be doing very nicely :blink:

Some new build 6bed detached houses (which are so crammed in they can only just be classed as detached) have mostly sold by the time the foundations have been laid, even at £1/2mil each.

I think the mood on the forum is bad - a lot of people seem to have almost given up.

I've been on this forum about the same time as you Pete and the mood has changed a lot since the early days. There was a feeling of optimism, that 'everyone thinks we're crazy but we'll be proved right'. Vigorous debate between bears and bulls. Now most of the original bulls have gone, new bulls are consigned to the Trolls forum, and the main forum is left to the bears to sink into collective depression.

Economic fundamentals have changed IMHO. Debt is a way of life, and accepted. When people leave university with debts of £20K, this changes the rules. Welcome to permanently high house prices and the new economic slavery.

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I have a feeling that the LR figures changed that mood right back.

Never felt more confident about HPC.

The BoE got it wrong when they reduced interest rates by 25BP. That gave the housing market a short term fix (as seen in LR), but will now mean that the BoE will have to overshoot to cool an economy that is about to overheat. That will be the final nail in the coffin of this housing market.

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Guest Fiddlesticks

Well, yes actually. New addition express: ( the one they did not want you to see)

campbelll7wr.png

I have to say my mood is pretty negative right now, and it's been getting worse all this year. With headlines like this splashed around I feel like we're fighting a losing battle. And I've just been studying the new LR figures which make me want to go back under the duvet.

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Me, I'm losing the faith - there's all this talk of a rate increase (assuming they're right) whihc will be only be 0.25%, can't see that collapsing the market.

Unless some kind of economic disaster took place which triggers huge unemployment or interest rates to shoot up to 7-8% I can't see any HPC coming - feel free to suggest what these triggers might be

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Me, I'm losing the faith - there's all this talk of a rate increase (assuming they're right) whihc will be only be 0.25%, can't see that collapsing the market.

Unless some kind of economic disaster took place which triggers huge unemployment or interest rates to shoot up to 7-8% I can't see any HPC coming - feel free to suggest what these triggers might be

You can drive yourself crazy watching every headline.

The key statistic to watch is bankruptcies and repossessions, which all indicate increasing unaffordability. Just relax as the repossessions mount....

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You can drive yourself crazy watching every headline.

The key statistic to watch is bankruptcies and repossessions, which all indicate increasing unaffordability. Just relax as the repossessions mount....

Agreed.I have a friend self employed,£30k ish a year,just got a loan to pay his tax.He did`nt factor that in when he purchased his new £160k house.Mind you it`s on three floors with a toilet on each.That might come in handy at a future date!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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