Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Vivaldo

Holy Cow! Here Comes Inflation

Recommended Posts

Hi,

Bar a recession, inflation a year or two out looks to have taken a solid hold, however much the ODM try to fudge the figures. M4 broad money supply aggregates jumped 1% in march alone (!!!). Since broad money aggregates generally track proportional valuations of GDP and since we probably are not really heading for growth of 10+% this year and since, finally, there is a fairly consistent (both historically and internationally) relationship between the growth of the money supply and growth of inflation a year or two out, it would appear the inflation bug has taken a firm seize on the 'miracle' economy. The ECB has all along chose to clamp down early on the growth of inflation, in this way, over the past couple of years. The FeD also have become spooked, choosing to make rapid, big increases in interest rates and also choosing to no longer update the broad money supply figures to the markets (they were growing at similarly, alarming rate). Infact, most of the other major economies around the world have chosen to act early and try to control inflation before it spirals.

Personal bankruptcies are at record highs, home repocessions are rising exponentially and approaching levels last seen during the last crash and yet ........... house prices are rising. Does all this seem like UK plc housing market is healthy and sustainable to you?

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi,

Bar a recession, inflation a year or two out looks to have taken a solid hold, however much the ODM try to fudge the figures. M4 broad money supply aggregates jumped 1% in march alone (!!!). Since broad money aggregates generally track proportional valuations of GDP and since we probably are not really heading for growth of 10+% this year and since, finally, there is a fairly consistent (both historically and internationally) relationship between the growth of the money supply and growth of inflation a year or two out, it would appear the inflation bug has taken a firm seize on the 'miracle' economy. The ECB has all along chose to clamp down early on the growth of inflation, in this way, over the past couple of years. The FeD also have become spooked, choosing to make rapid, big increases in interest rates and also choosing to no longer update the broad money supply figures to the markets (they were growing at similarly, alarming rate). Infact, most of the other major economies around the world have chosen to act early and try to control inflation before it spirals.

Personal bankruptcies are at record highs, home repocessions are rising exponentially and approaching levels last seen during the last crash and yet ........... house prices are rising. Does all this seem like UK plc housing market is healthy and sustainable to you?

Boomer

Good post.

I guess we know why the FED have stopped reporting some of the broad money supply stats .....

This is a very important thread IMO. It starts to explain why we've had such astronomical HPI and why the banks are still bullish on lending large multiples.

The question is, where do we go from here. Fiat currency is devaluing like a b*****d. Are people going to sit back and let this happen?

Japan went for deflation. It is very clear than the Anglo-Saxon world is going for "controlled" hyperinflation.

Where's the breaking point?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good post.

I guess we know why the FED have stopped reporting some of the broad money supply stats .....

This is a very important thread IMO. It starts to explain why we've had such astronomical HPI and why the banks are still bullish on lending large multiples.

The question is, where do we go from here. Fiat currency is devaluing like a b*****d. Are people going to sit back and let this happen?

Japan went for deflation. It is very clear than the Anglo-Saxon world is going for "controlled" hyperinflation.

Where's the breaking point?

.... and whats the best way to ride the storm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

.... and whats the best way to ride the storm?

Well according to Doug Giles...

http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/do.../24/155695.html

Don't curse God when things go south. Keep up your worship, confession and obedience when the stuff is hitting the fan. We've got to learn to be faithful storm travelers who'll be just as on fire for Him during and after our storms as we are when the sun is shining, the birds are chirping and we just got a raise.

(I think he means Interest Rates)

I'm all for making and banking as much cash as I can. Why? Well, hunting is expensive, Miami is expensive and I'd like to leave my kids some money that they can misspend. However, at the end of the day, truth be told, most of the things we lust after are about as important as Hillary Duff's latest album. :o Therefore, in all of our getting we need to get things that will follow us beyond the grave. I'm talking about being rich in good works and standing for truth in a day of lies, hype and spin.

(I think he means Estate Agents on that last bit).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Japan went for deflation. It is very clear than the Anglo-Saxon world is going for "controlled" hyperinflation.

Where's the breaking point?

I wish it was clear. Hyperinflation is not the done deal some here think IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wish it was clear. Hyperinflation is not the done deal some here think IMO.

I think (hope) you are right. Central bank independence is too engrained now IMHO for hyperinflation to happen without governments first having to wrestle back some control, meaning we will have ample warning time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think (hope) you are right. Central bank independence is too engrained now IMHO for hyperinflation to happen without governments first having to wrestle back some control, meaning we will have ample warning time.

So do I, but I'm not confident in this conviction. That's why I have a little gold pile. B)

I hope you are also right, no matter which way we go, about ample warning. No one rings a bell at the top or bottom of the market. Governments have a poor track record of protecting anyone from anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.