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Time to raise the rents.

Rate More Likely To Go Down Than Up!

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2165879,00.html

Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte, the accountants, argued that “talk of higher rates is a bit premature”.

He said: “If the strength of the housing market prompts a pick-up in general consumer activity, rate rises may come on to the agenda before the year is out.

“But for the moment, I think that the prospect of a significant undershoot of the inflation target this year suggests that the next move is still more likely to be down than up.”

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I suspect that quote is going to come back and bite Bootle in the a$$....

Just like his 20% fall in house prices by the end of this year quote did? :blink:

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I don't think anyone can predict what will happen with IR. It is highly likely that the BOE through pressure from the Government will reduce IR.

This is after all the Government that had billboards triumphing low IR under Labour. Don't expect the right decision to be made - we live in short termist country governed by *****ers.

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http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1768709,00.html

Sterling has strengthened against the greenback over the course of the week as strong economic data in the UK heightened expectations that the Bank of England would increase interest rates before the end of the year.

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/News/economy/m...#036;421381.htm

"There are growing signs that when the MPC does decide to shift rates, the next move will be up," said Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets.
And he was not alone in this view.
Errol Francis, of Credit Suisse Asset Management, added: "On balance, data released in the past few weeks suggests that there is now a greater likelihood that the Bank of England will raise interest rates later this year."

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/bus...sp?story=689801

Why we may be moving into a period of higher interest rates

By Hamish McRae

05 May 2006

Things have speeded up
. They have speeded up despite somewhat higher interest rates and much higher oil prices. So does that suggest both interest rates and oil prices will have to go higher before the cycle comes to an end?

TTRTRates? The Hawks are starting to outnumber the doves. Watch the trends. :o

Edited by Realistbear

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http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1768709,00.html

Sterling has strengthened against the greenback over the course of the week as strong economic data in the UK heightened expectations that the Bank of England would increase interest rates before the end of the year.

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/News/economy/m...#036;421381.htm

"There are growing signs that when the MPC does decide to shift rates, the next move will be up," said Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets.
And he was not alone in this view.
Errol Francis, of Credit Suisse Asset Management, added: "On balance, data released in the past few weeks suggests that there is now a greater likelihood that the Bank of England will raise interest rates later this year."

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/bus...sp?story=689801

Why we may be moving into a period of higher interest rates

By Hamish McRae

05 May 2006

Things have speeded up
. They have speeded up despite somewhat higher interest rates and much higher oil prices. So does that suggest both interest rates and oil prices will have to go higher before the cycle comes to an end?

TTRTRates? The Hawks are starting to outnumber the doves. Watch the trends. :o

Keep trying to drown the forum in your opinion. But you'll never stop Roger Bootle! He's always right haven't you heard?

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Keep trying to drown the forum in your opinion. But you'll never stop Roger Bootle! He's always right haven't you heard?

"MY" opinion? :blink: The articles posted were the opinions of various economists and banks.

In the immortal words of James (Jimmy) Cricket--there's more......................... <_<

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"MY" opinion? :blink: The articles posted were the opinions of various economists and banks.

In the immortal words of James (Jimmy) Cricket--there's more......................... <_<

Oh come on! You slap your opinion on every story stretching the truth harder than my G-string!

To try to deny that just makes you dishonest IMO. Are you denying it?

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Oh come on! You slap your opinion on every story stretching the truth harder than my G-string!

To try to deny that just makes you dishonest IMO. Are you denying it?

I am just posting good news on IR for the enjoyment of all (except the Bulls of course). :)

Can't deny it--the trend is plain to see. Some of the Bears have been wondering if you have overlooked the maxim: buy low and sell high? Rising IR should have given you enough of a heads up to have bailed last year. Now its too late for top of the market prices and the indicators are pointing to more IR hikes to come, lower yields (as reported a week or so ago) and eroding capital value.

The key to investing in property or anything else for that matter is knowing when to get out. 20th March was probably the final call (Japn took the first steps toward tightening on that date).

Edit:

Forgot this one from the FT:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2cc47d96-da99-11d...20abe49a01.html

Data bolster belief that next UK rates move is up

By Jamie Chisholm, Economics Reporter

Published: May 4 2006 12:00 | Last updated: May 4 2006 21:49

Bank of EnglandExpectations of an interest rate increase later this year hardened on Thursday after data showed an acceleration in economic activity that might prompt the Bank of England to apply a cautionary touch on the brakes.

The market is screaming IR warnings loud enough for all to hear--its time to sell if you can!

Edited by Realistbear

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Sterling seems to be getting stronger against most Currencies, heaven alone knows why though :unsure:

Can't see any real reason at the moment why the BOE will raise rates as inflation is running low (Dodgy figures I know) & the last thing needed is for Sterling to increase in value still further.

So it's beginning to look (IMO) if Nu Labour is going to get away with this 'Miracle Economy' mirage for a while yet.

Of course things can change sooo quickly, just look at the way $ has tanked over the last 2 weeks.

Sterlings turn next, who knows ?:ph34r:

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Sterling seems to be getting stronger against most Currencies, heaven alone knows why though :unsure:

Can't see any real reason at the moment why the BOE will raise rates as inflation is running low (Dodgy figures I know) & the last thing needed is for Sterling to increase in value still further.

So it's beginning to look (IMO) if Nu Labour is going to get away with this 'Miracle Economy' mirage for a while yet.

Of course things can change sooo quickly, just look at the way $ has tanked over the last 2 weeks.

Sterlings turn next, who knows ?:ph34r:

Here are next week's inflation figures:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...N-WEEKAHEAD.XML

UK DATA WEEKAHEAD-PPI, trade, BoE inflation report, production

Fri May 5, 2006 3:32 PM BST13

Email This Article | Print This Article | RSS

[-] Text [+]

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Following are some of the key British economic indicators to be released in the coming week.

PRODUCER PRICES (APR)

Monday, May 8 at 0830 GMT

Input price inflation is likely to have picked up again after oil prices soared above $70 a barrel

(pct change) Forecast Previous

PPI output price mm (nsa) 0.5 0.3

PPI output price yy 2.3 2.5

Core output price mm 0.3 0.3

Core output price yy 2.0 1.9

PPI input price mm (sa) 1.6 0.3 Continued...A generally bullish outlook could put paid to lingering expectations of lower rates.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Bart of Darkness

I don't think anyone can predict what will happen with IR. It is highly likely that the BOE through pressure from the Government will reduce IR.

This is after all the Government that had billboards triumphing low IR under Labour. Don't expect the right decision to be made - we live in short termist country governed by *****ers.

Well said (and probably all too accurate).

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I am just posting good news on IR for the enjoyment of all (except the Bulls of course). :)

Can't deny it--the trend is plain to see. Some of the Bears have been wondering if you have overlooked the maxim: buy low and sell high? Rising IR should have given you enough of a heads up to have bailed last year. Now its too late for top of the market prices and the indicators are pointing to more IR hikes to come, lower yields (as reported a week or so ago) and eroding capital value.

A bit short of stories re eroding capital value no doubt.....

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A bit short of stories re eroding capital value no doubt.....

Its all about thje trends. Double digit capital appreciation was with us in 2004. It vanished in 2005 and should go nicely negative in 2006 (i.e. actual selling prices--not hypothetical "asking prices" in the Rightmove tradtion).

In my area the ODPM reported declines of 7% which is not a bad start to the negative capital appreciation trend.

Its shaping up much like the Great Crash. Double digit inflation slows to single digit and then to negative single digit onto negative double digit. Typical boom-bust cycle we see all the time. For the investor its knowing how to spot the trend.

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Its shaping up much like the Great Crash. Double digit inflation slows to single digit and then to negative single digit onto negative double digit. Typical boom-bust cycle we see all the time.

For the investor its knowing how to spot the trend.

All that's missing is:

The economic mismanagement of Nigel Lawson where he targetted the £ and dished out some tax busting budgets (the economy and inflation spiralled out of control in the late 1980s)

The corresponding hike in rates from 8% to 15% in 1989 (to try and curb inflation)

The ERM fiasco from 1990 to 1992 where we lost some control of our monetary policy and sank deeper into recession and ended up with Black Wednesday.

Unemployment rising from 6% to over 8%. (currently at 5%)

Despite ALL OF THE ABOVE average UK house prices only fell aound 18% nominally in the 1990s crash.

So which year are we 'at' compared to the last crash?

Surely not 1989? (with its 15% IRs)

1988? (but the economy had overheated and inflation was spiralling out of control in 1988)

1987? (different monetary policy today. Back then, UK interest rates were set wrt the £ by the Tories. Today the BoE target inflation)

1986? (ten years before prices dipped in the 1990s crash)

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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All that's missing is:

The economic mismanagement of Nigel Lawson where he targetted the £ and dished out some tax busting budgets (the economy and inflation spiralled out of control in the late 1980s)

The corresponding hike in rates from 8% to 15% in 1989 (to try and curb inflation)

The ERM fiasco from 1990 to 1992 where we lost some control of our monetary policy and sank deeper into recession and ended up with Black Wednesday.

Unemployment rising from 6% to over 8%. (currently at 5%)

Despite ALL OF THE ABOVE average UK house prices only fell aound 18% nominally in the 1990s crash.

So which year are we 'at' compared to the last crash?

Surely not 1989? (with its 15% IRs)

1988? (but the economy had overheated and inflation was spiralling out of control in 1988)

1987? (different monetary policy today. Back then, UK interest rates were set wrt the £ by the Tories. Today the BoE target inflation)

1986? (ten years before prices dipped in the 1990s crash)

I bought a house in Surrey for 189k in 1990. It had previously sold for 249k a few years earlier. The devastation wrought by the Great Crash was far more serious than 18%--at least in Surrey.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

My hero is the guy from Barclays who wears those yuppie red braces and was once a shop steward on a building site. :D

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Its all about thje trends. Double digit capital appreciation was with us in 2004. It vanished in 2005 and should go nicely negative in 2006 (i.e. actual selling prices--not hypothetical "asking prices" in the Rightmove tradtion).

In my area the ODPM reported declines of 7% which is not a bad start to the negative capital appreciation trend.

Its shaping up much like the Great Crash. Double digit inflation slows to single digit and then to negative single digit onto negative double digit. Typical boom-bust cycle we see all the time. For the investor its knowing how to spot the trend.

I've never known anyone to be so openly ignorant of the truth!

I think you should take the crown from Saddams Minister of Information.

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I bought a house in Surrey for 189k in 1990. It had previously sold for 249k a few years earlier. The devastation wrought by the Great Crash was far more serious than 18%--at least in Surrey.

Well that's 24% - a bit higher than the average, but ont much. And in general the SE fell by more than the average, the North by less, so it sounds about right.

18% was the average nominal fall - that's a bigger real fall of course. If there's a real crash this time it might be similar - some stuff like new-builds might fall by far more of course.

Some here predict 30-50% nominal falls. In my personal opinion that's balderdash, but if I'm wrong I'll come back and admit it in a few years time.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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