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Realistbear

Futures Market Begins To Increase Odds On E C B Hiking .50%

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/05052006/94/dollar...talks-euro.html

On Friday the futures markets moved to price in around a 20 per cent probability that the ECB may even break with tradition and
raise rates by 50 basis points,
rather than the customary 25.
Just as importantly for the currency market, Mr Trichet did not express any displeasure at the euro’s near 5 per cent rally against the US dollar in the past month, potentially giving the market greater leeway to continue to push the euro higher.

As the probability of massive IR hikes starts to grow the Euro will soar as exports plummet. The pound appears to be skyrocketing with the Euro and yet the BoE claim there is no inflation--unlike the EU. :blink:

1.8612 U.S $ :o

Edited by Realistbear

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Just as importantly for the currency market, Mr Trichet did not express any displeasure at the euro’s near 5 per cent rally against the US dollar in the past month, potentially giving the market greater leeway to continue to push the euro higher.[/indent]

As the probability of massive IR hikes starts to grow the Euro will soar as exports plummet. The pound appears to be skyrocketing with the Euro and yet the BoE claim there is no inflation--unlike the EU. :blink:

1.8612 U.S $ :o

If the pound appreciates against the US$, doesn't that mean that the prices of gold and oil have effectively gone down, or at least for people holding ££ haven't gone up as much as they appear to have done given the nominal price?

Billy Shears

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If the pound appreciates against the US$, doesn't that mean that the prices of gold and oil have effectively gone down, or at least for people holding ££ haven't gone up as much as they appear to have done given the nominal price?

Billy Shears

The scary thing is that the pound has appreciated against the Euro also. The market must be pricing in some hefty IR hikes by the BoE as our economy does not warrant the highest valued currency in the world as well as the most overpriced houses!

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The scary thing is that the pound has appreciated against the Euro also. The market must be pricing in some hefty IR hikes by the BoE as our economy does not warrant the highest valued currency in the world as well as the most overpriced houses!

I think you are spot on. It's been a long time coming but this really is the end of cheap money. Almost everyone has become so complacent about low IRs believing that the 'government wouldn't let them increase'. Something has to give.

..... and just take a look at New Zealand's economy.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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