Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Levy process

I Know It's Dull, And Has Been Done To Death

Recommended Posts

I know this issue has been pretty much done to death, but it might be worth a few seconds worth reconsideration on a day when national newspapers are trumpeting 2% monthly HPI:

How can the indexes be so different? Nationwide gave 0.1% for April. Now Halifax gives 2%. Why the huge difference? Is it inclusion/exclusion of seasonal adjustment? Or is it just a sign that monthly statistics are meaningless except to newspaper editors, who use it as a tool to sell newspapers?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You’re right there Levy, it is boring and done to death, but like you I still wonder how it happens, and most baffling of all is where do they find the punters?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this issue has been pretty much done to death, but it might be worth a few seconds worth reconsideration on a day when national newspapers are trumpeting 2% monthly HPI:

How can the indexes be so different? Nationwide gave 0.1% for April. Now Halifax gives 2%. Why the huge difference? Is it inclusion/exclusion of seasonal adjustment? Or is it just a sign that monthly statistics are meaningless except to newspaper editors, who use it as a tool to sell newspapers?

There's all sorts of good reasons for variations in the figures - different seasonal adjustments, different sample areas and sizes, different mix adjustment, Halifax northern bias, etc, etc.

The monthly figures don't mean a great deal taken on their own and you probably need to allow a per cent or two error in either direction, but once you plot them all into a graph you do see a pattern emerging which is fairly consistent across all the measurements (see King Of Nowhere's graph in the recent Halifax thread).

We probably all read too much into monthly figures, including the papers, who do tend to sensationalise them into absurd conclusions (cf the Daily Express's "House Prices Slump" and "House Prices Boom" headlines, both in a period where house prices were fairly stagnant).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There could be one other glaring reason, the latest Halifax report refers to data from the estate agency side of the business, if you are careful in your selection of property for sale you could, in theory, decide on the outcome you want/need, (2% increase thank you), and work backwards. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There could be one other glaring reason, the latest Halifax report refers to data from the estate agency side of the business, if you are careful in your selection of property for sale you could, in theory, decide on the outcome you want/need, (2% increase thank you), and work backwards. ;)

Ah yes, always better to go for the paranoid explanation than the statistical one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah yes, always better to go for the paranoid explanation than the statistical one.

PARANOID! you talking about me? :D

Fact is we`ll never know :blink: , we can only surmise. I`m with you, the figures have to be looked upon over a 6 month period IMHO. The latitude afforded by these methodologies offers so much scope... <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PARANOID! you talking about me? :D

Yes, and I'm watching you on hidden CCTV too...

Actually, without meaning to go on about it, let's look at the three stages of delusion in your original post.

1) I don't like this information so it must be false.

2) This information must be false, so they must be lying.

3) They must be lying, so in order to do that they must be organising their entire business in such a way as to produce this lie.

Not calling you paranoid though... :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, and I'm watching you on hidden CCTV too...

Actually, without meaning to go on about it, let's look at the three stages of delusion in your original post.

1) I don't like this information so it must be false.

2) This information must be false, so they must be lying.

3) They must be lying, so in order to do that they must be organising their entire business in such a way as to produce this lie.

Not calling you paranoid though... :P

Excellent! :D And I’ll add number 4 …

4) They must be organising their entire business around a deception, so there must be a massive and pervasive conspiracy right up to governmental level, possibly even global, that allows this to happen and is pulling the stings. :P

Edited by spline

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent! :D And I’ll add number 4 …

4) They must be organising their entire business around a deception, so there must be a massive and pervasive conspiracy right up to governmental level, possibly even global, that allows this to happen and is pulling the stings. :P

Oh, yes I forgot that one. That's VIs for you though, always organising secret global conferences to manipulate the entire world economy against you. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'll find both lenders have a good month, then a bad month. This allows the press to focus on what they want. The problem is the index's can't continue on totally different paths, either Halfiax figures will fall or Nationwide will pick up.

I expect Nationwide to be a big number in May, while Halifax is small (but still positive).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'll find both lenders have a good month, then a bad month. This allows the press to focus on what they want. The problem is the index's can't continue on totally different paths, either Halfiax figures will fall or Nationwide will pick up.

I expect Nationwide to be a big number in May, while Halifax is small (but still positive).

Er, oh never mind, I've already gone about paranoia enough for one day...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah yes, always better to go for the paranoid explanation than the statistical one.

I worked on an Annual Review for the Halifax a few years back. They presented us with a set of figures which I translated into graphs but because the graphs didn't look as positive as they would have liked the accountants got to work and presented me with another set of figures that had a much better spin on them. :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'll find both lenders have a good month, then a bad month. This allows the press to focus on what they want. The problem is the index's can't continue on totally different paths, either Halfiax figures will fall or Nationwide will pick up.

I expect Nationwide to be a big number in May, while Halifax is small (but still positive).

makes sense - this graph shows one vs t'other monthly SA since March 03

bsmmsa.gif

post-3959-1146836021.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I worked on an Annual Review for the Halifax a few years back. They presented us with a set of figures which I translated into graphs but because the graphs didn't look as positive as they would have liked the accountants got to work and presented me with another set of figures that had a much better spin on them. :ph34r:

It wasn't so much the "they're lying" aspect I was mocking - more the "they're running their entire business is such a way as to produce this result", which seemed to ramp up the paranoia to a new level...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It wasn't so much the "they're lying" aspect I was mocking - more the "they're running their entire business is such a way as to produce this result", which seemed to ramp up the paranoia to a new level...

it does look like Halifax data has been more volatile than Nationwide's of late which certainly makes it more pressworthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It wasn't so much the "they're lying" aspect I was mocking - more the "they're running their entire business is such a way as to produce this result", which seemed to ramp up the paranoia to a new level...

The assumption you make there is the implication that HBOS operate their whole business venture around the monthly stats. that they chuck out for the usual monthly frenzy :o ..Now who is being paranoid...? B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.