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When I first started looking at this site (as a casual observer) I was struck by the confident views of the bulls, who poured scorn on the bears, saying that they were fools to imagine house prices would fall.

I'm amazed now at how seamlessly the views expressed in their posts have changed, and that none of the bulls will admit that they were wrong and the bears were right i.e. 5 monthly falls in a row.

This reminds me so much of the late 80's when bulls went through the following stages:

1. House prices will always rise

2. They may level off but they won't fall

3. They're falling a bit but they'll soon recover

4. I thought all along that they'd drop

I took great delight at the time in pointing out that they'd got it wrong, and will do so now.

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It's fair enough to say that the bulls have got it wrong because prices have started to fall. But don't you think that a lot of the bragging by bulls was because the bears had got it wrong for so long, this sight has been going for a year now but a lot of the members used the old FT Forum and have been forcasting the crash for 3 or more years.... a lot of people have made a lot of money in that time all from property!!

If you swung the situation around in 4-5 years time when prices start recovering again, the bulls would then, by the same argument, be able to say 'see told you prices would rise'..................

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When I first started looking at this site (as a casual observer) I was struck by the confident views of the bulls, who poured scorn on the bears, saying that they were fools to imagine house prices would fall.

I'm amazed now at how seamlessly the views expressed in their posts have changed, and that none of the bulls will admit that they were wrong and the bears were right i.e. 5 monthly falls in a row.

This reminds me so much of the late 80's when bulls went through the following stages:

1. House prices will always rise

2. They may level off but they won't fall

3. They're falling a bit but they'll soon recover

4. I thought all along that they'd drop

I took great delight at the time in pointing out that they'd got it wrong, and will do so now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Love that adverb...seamlessly. Say it again!

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It's fair enough to say that the bulls have got it wrong because prices have started to fall. But don't you think that a lot of the bragging by bulls was because the bears had got it wrong for so long, this sight has been going for a year now but a lot of the members used the old FT Forum and have been forcasting the crash for 3 or more years.... a lot of people have made a lot of money in that time all from property!!

If you swung the situation around in 4-5 years time when prices start recovering again, the bulls would then, by the same argument, be able to say 'see told you prices would rise'..................

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But the point is all seemed to be saying that house prices never, ever fall and would just rise and rise. I'm sure the bears don't claim prices will never recover.

I have spoken to many, many people who assume that as soon as you're on the ladder your riches will start to accelerate and that there's no risk of their house ever dropping, even those who lived through previous crashes. It's something that our culture has led us to believe, reinforced by the media e.g. property shows on TV and the language used i.e. "fear of house price falls" "doom mongers" when describing bears (why not "joy-bringers"?)

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Should you sell - ".... a lot of people have made a lot of money in that time all from property!!"

It is more accurate to say they have 'made all that money' (if they manage to sell) not from property itself but from desperate FTBs and BTLs who have bought at clearly unrealistic prices.

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Wriggly - I am afraid it is a free market, if people were willing to buy and make others a fortune the last thing I am going to do is begrudge those that have done well out of it!!!

People make millions out of others misfortune every day in this world of ours ........ I don't think it is fair to say that those that have managed to get out have made their money from the FTB's and BTL's they have made it because of two possible reasons

1. Luck

2. Bloody good market timing

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I have spoken to many, many people who assume that as soon as you're on the ladder your riches will start to accelerate and that there's no risk of their house ever dropping, even those who lived through previous crashes

Was this in the local mental asylum?

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Wriggly - I am afraid it is a free market, if people were willing to buy and make others a fortune the last thing I am going to do is begrudge those that have done well out of it!!!

People make millions out of others misfortune every day in this world of ours ........ I don't think it is fair to say that those that have managed to get out have made their money from the FTB's and BTL's they have made it because of two possible reasons

1. Luck

2. Bloody good market timing

This is true. What rankles is the trumpettnig of the greatness of high house prices and the "healthy house market" garbage that was peddled these last few years. It has not been good and I'm glad to see the back of it.

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It's fair enough to say that the bulls have got it wrong because prices have started to fall. But don't you think that a lot of the bragging by bulls was because the bears had got it wrong for so long, this sight has been going for a year now but a lot of the members used the old FT Forum and have been forcasting the crash for 3 or more years.... a lot of people have made a lot of money in that time all from property!!

I have been forecasting a crash for best part of 3 years I guess. Certainly more than two. That's because, where I live (Berkshire) prices went to absurd levels two or three years ago and the market got stuck. The papers were full of 'prices up 20% per annum stories' so some people were putting houses on the market for really daft money. And they sat there and sat there etc. The market become directionless. Some people thought it was still going up. Some down. As long as a year and a half ago Land Registry figures showed nominal falls in average prices here.

It strikes me the property market is like a locomotive. It takes a long time to slow down and grind to a halt. When it goes into reverse it goes very slowly at first and then picks up speed to equal the speed it was going before, but in the opposite direction. This is because the market is driven by people - and people are sheeplike, fickle (won't face the facts) and easily affected by the media. So, I don't think most bears got it wrong - its just that major market changes (in the property market) take a long time. In the last two big crashes (1974 and 1989) it took about 12 years for property to recover (allowing for inflation).

Having said that, wish I'd sold my house 3 years ago and bought a couple in Wales and sold them 6 months ago.

In 1987 and 1988 a few lone voices said 'this can't carry on, prices will have to come down'. They were right then, and right now.

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This is true. What rankles is the trumpettnig of the greatness of high house prices and the "healthy house market" garbage that was peddled these last few years. It has not been good and I'm glad to see the back of it.

Quite right wriggly (no relation I trust?). The boom in HPs set against the crumbling real economy and social damage done seems a poor trade off.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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