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ianbeale

June Mpc On Betfair

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I'm not expecting them to go up in June. I reckon they'll leave it as long as possible. There are plenty of lame excuses to leave them on hold next month. The pound is strong against the dollar, the housing market enters its usual summer lull etc...

There'll be a few months more before their hand is forced I think.

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I'm not expecting them to go up in June. I reckon they'll leave it as long as possible. There are plenty of lame excuses to leave them on hold next month. The pound is strong against the dollar, the housing market enters its usual summer lull etc...

There'll be a few months more before their hand is forced I think.

I agree.

The alternative is for the MPC to actually make a decision for once, a pre-emptive rise of 0.25% would be decisive in sending a clear signal to the markets. They won't of course; they will sit on their hands and be overtaken by events.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
The alternative is for the MPC to actually make a decision for once, a pre-emptive rise of 0.25% would be decisive in sending a clear signal to the markets. They won't of course; they will sit on their hands and be overtaken by events.

I'd love to be able to bet on the above scenario coming to pass, I'd make a packet!

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Betfair

I had a few quid on a May rise yesterday at 100/1. Ok, it was unlikely, but a reasonable bet at 100/1.

There has already been a fair few matches on June and now the spreads are very narrow.

To put it succinctly, betfair punters reckon that there's a one in seven or eight chance of a change (most likely a rise, but best be precise). If you want to bet on a rise, you can only get 7/1 on it at this moment.

Hope this helps people that find betfair a bit confusing.

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and there was me thinking I was a bit dim :rolleyes:

i know i didn't add a lot, but there was a post yesterday that flew past where someone was punting, but thought they had got 1:65, seemed to show less than a complete understanding of how they're spending their money.

obviously this market will lurch once the minutes are released - i'm thinking of taking a sizeable position, to take hopefully a profit at the minutes rather than the decision, but 1.12/1.14 is way lower than i'd expected; must be pricing in at least one vote for a rise if not two?

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I'm not expecting them to go up in June.

With house prices being reported as going up 2% in one month I wouldn't be surprised!!

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Jun short sterling is 95.25. Can someone explain why arbitrage would not work a treat here? One bet on an IR increase on betfair - another buy on short sterling to mitigate any losses?

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Haven't previous odds been much higher?

previous couple of months around the 50/1 mark now about 7/1 so it has shotened up a fair bit but noneteh less with a lot of pro IR hike press about at the momment this could be look pretty generous a week before the meeting.

if anybody does want a punt of IR going up then use the bet forthen you are generally better off laying the no change option.

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i know i didn't add a lot, but there was a post yesterday that flew past where someone was punting, but thought they had got 1:65, seemed to show less than a complete understanding of how they're spending their money.

obviously this market will lurch once the minutes are released - i'm thinking of taking a sizeable position, to take hopefully a profit at the minutes rather than the decision, but 1.12/1.14 is way lower than i'd expected; must be pricing in at least one vote for a rise if not two?

I'm sorry, now i'm confused :) (That was my post btw)

Arguably, I got the notation the wrong way around, but if the rise had happened, I would have gotten 65 times my money, right?

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yep, wasn't criticising. but there are potential gains by understanding the system better. e.g. while you were taking 65's and looking later and seeing less on offer, you could still have laid at 1.01 and got 100/1. only peanuts and only trying to help, but had it happened you could've picked up £200 rather than £130 (both minus 5% of course). yes, the lay would've needed a taker, but there were takers taking...

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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