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I Told You So

Time For A Little Bull Baiting

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TTRTR, Kingofnowhere, Imupnorth any others bulls lets reflect

You guys have been banging on about rate cuts for the last 9 months and myself and many others have been saying no your wrong the next move is up.

You know what im going to say "I Told You So" childish I know but like you guys and many other friends and family who have scoffed at my predictions i'm not going to let this go lightly i'm going to rub yours and theres noses in it.

Even I would have to admit its taken far longer than I anticipated but the crash is well and truly on course, lets just sit back and enjoy the ride. :D

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I ‘ve noticed that the usual rate cut whingers have been absent of late such as the CBI et al. Also, I sense a sense of common sense coming from responsible lenders. But is it me lucid dreaming

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ohhhhh!

The only way s Up!, baby, for Time To Hand back the keys.. the only way is UP

hehehe!

Evey 0.25% costs TTRTR 1500 a month! And Makes me MORE money!

'Hope... that helps!"

I bet you'd love to open his letter from his lender if it was wrongly delivred to you.

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Rate predictions change with the wind, I hope the next move is up but the overborrowed always seem to be top of the priority list.

Edited by simon99

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TTRTR, Kingofnowhere, Imupnorth any others bulls lets reflect

You guys have been banging on about rate cuts for the last 9 months and myself and many others have been saying no your wrong the next move is up.

You know what im going to say "I Told You So" childish I know but like you guys and many other friends and family who have scoffed at my predictions i'm not going to let this go lightly i'm going to rub yours and theres noses in it.

Even I would have to admit its taken far longer than I anticipated but the crash is well and truly on course, lets just sit back and enjoy the ride. :D

You are truely a comedian! :lol::lol:

On the day that Halifax reports HPI as 8% YOY & 2% for a single month. You try to tell us you told us & that the crash is on course.

I didn't realise they allowed internet access in the asylum. Good for you though.

:lol::lol:

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Guest Winners and Losers

You are truely a comedian! :lol::lol:

On the day that Halifax reports HPI as 8% YOY & 2% for a single month. You try to tell us you told us & that the crash is on course.

I didn't realise they allowed internet access in the asylum. Good for you though.

:lol::lol:

Enjoy it while it lasts. ;)

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You guys have been banging on about rate cuts for the last 9 months and myself and many others have been saying no your wrong the next move is up.

You guys have been banging on about rate rises since the Dead Sea was just sick, and myself and others have been saying, no, you're wrong, we're in for continued stability (viz, to wit and ergo today's NC).

You know what im going to say "I Told You So" childish I know but like you guys and many other friends and family who have scoffed at my predictions i'm not going to let this go lightly i'm going to rub yours and theres noses in it.

Right back at ya.

Even I would have to admit its taken far longer than I anticipated but the crash is well and truly on course, lets just sit back and enjoy the ride.

FACT/OPINION CHECK: FAILED.

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TTRTR, Kingofnowhere, Imupnorth any others bulls lets reflect

You guys have been banging on about rate cuts for the last 9 months and myself and many others have been saying no your wrong the next move is up.

You know what im going to say "I Told You So" childish I know but like you guys and many other friends and family who have scoffed at my predictions i'm not going to let this go lightly i'm going to rub yours and theres noses in it.

Even I would have to admit its taken far longer than I anticipated but the crash is well and truly on course, lets just sit back and enjoy the ride. :D

Yep, the next move may be up

But thats because the economy is picking up more strongly than I would have thought, so we are moving back to normal growth and away from a recession. House prices seem to be going up faster than I expected, and certainly not falling most here were prediciting.

So yes, we may get a rise some time next year, but the bears were wrong on the direction of house prices and the recession that was suppose to be coming.

Who really cares if the average house is rising at 10K per year, and the MPC put rates up by 0.25% which would put the average mortgage up by a huge £12 per year!!!

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1) If you split out the inflation figures into 2 parts, services and goods, you find that high inflation in the service sector has been offset by deflation in imported goods. If we had to continue to make our own goods, inflation would be running much at a much higher rate. So when this source of deflation ends – ie when we run out of things to offshore - rates will have to go up.

If, heaven forbid, the imports become so expensive we have to start making things at home again, reversing the trend, then the price of goods could perhaps double, and rates would have to react accordingly.

2) The MPC is fully aware of (1) above, and it knows the foreign exchange rate sets the price of our imports. So if the Chinese Renminbi continues to strengthen, we will have to put our rates up to stop money leaving the country and devaluing the pound further, which would otherwise cause further inflation And the Renminbi has been artificially held low for many years. Once it is allowed to float freely, the dollar could weaken forcing US rates up, desperate trying to suck money in - and the UK would have to compete but raising rates.

The fed is already ‘stuck between a rock a hard place’. Keep rates low and watch inflation rise, or put rates up causing a recession. You have to feel sorry for Ben Bernanke.

3) If the Middle East lose their faith in the US dollar, then they either start to demand more of them in return for their oil, or demand payment in Euros (or gold??) . This would further stoke the commodities boom, until paper money becomes worth less and less. With high inflation, what does the MPC have to do? That’s right, time to put the rates up.

4) The Labour policy to increase immigration, mainly from Eastern Europe has put more competition in the workforce, capping wage increases. This is a further source of deflation - in the form of wage deflation.

So you see, amongst other things, our borrowing rates are kept low is because of the trend of importing a larger proportion of our goods, and the willingness of the Chinese to accept few dollars and pounds than they rightly deserve. These low rates allow houses to boom. If you made money on property, don’t thank Gordon Brown, thank the Chinese.

We may well have changed to a new paradigm, but it’s the *change* event that causes deflation. Deflation is a relative thing – we need the price of DVDs and labourers to decrease year on year. The question is what happens when things settle down and this change stops happening? Inflation goes back to where should be – maybe 5%. With the real rate at 2% this means mortgage rates of around 7.5%.

Bearing this in mind, would a bull like to point to this year’s source of deflation? And what about next year. When you run out of ideas, rates will rise.

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Some good points, but I particularly liked the last one.

We may well have changed to a new paradigm, but it’s the *change* event that causes deflation. Deflation is a relative thing – we need the price of DVDs and labourers to decrease year on year. The question is what happens when things settle down and this change stops happening? Inflation goes back to where should be – maybe 5%. With the real rate at 2% this means mortgage rates of around 7.5%.

Bearing this in mind, would a bull like to point to this year’s source of deflation? And what about next year. When you run out of ideas, rates will rise.

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You see that's the difference between bears & bulls.

Bears think the apocalypse is just around the corner. Bulls think that if there's a problem around the corner, they'll decide how to deal with it when they get there.

Bulls have more to lose.

This time more than ever.

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TTRTR, Kingofnowhere, Imupnorth any others bulls lets reflect

You guys have been banging on about rate cuts for the last 9 months and myself and many others have been saying no your wrong the next move is up.

You know what im going to say "I Told You So" childish I know but like you guys and many other friends and family who have scoffed at my predictions i'm not going to let this go lightly i'm going to rub yours and theres noses in it.

Even I would have to admit its taken far longer than I anticipated but the crash is well and truly on course, lets just sit back and enjoy the ride. :D

Well, I'm here by popular request again ... sorry to disappoint you my little warped friend, but another of your problems is that you have a very poor memory. I well believe I've been saying that I expect IRs to stay at 4.5% until the end of the year - been saying this for many many months. And I'll stick to that - not yet convinced that with a soaring pound and low inflation , they have any reason to raise IRs.

Remember the MPC isn't here to help you onto the housing ladder, in fact it couldn't care less about you.

How on earth you can delude yourself that the crash is well and truly on course amazes me - expecially on a day when the Halifax report a rise of 2% in the month. Anybody with an ounce of honesty in their bodies is able to see that there are a lot of for sale and sold boards around at the moment, and its not because prices are going down !

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1) If you split out the inflation figures into 2 parts, services and goods, you find that high inflation in the service sector has been offset by deflation in imported goods. If we had to continue to make our own goods, inflation would be running much at a much higher rate. So when this source of deflation ends – ie when we run out of things to offshore - rates will have to go up.

If, heaven forbid, the imports become so expensive we have to start making things at home again, reversing the trend, then the price of goods could perhaps double, and rates would have to react accordingly.

2) The MPC is fully aware of (1) above, and it knows the foreign exchange rate sets the price of our imports. So if the Chinese Renminbi continues to strengthen, we will have to put our rates up to stop money leaving the country and devaluing the pound further, which would otherwise cause further inflation And the Renminbi has been artificially held low for many years. Once it is allowed to float freely, the dollar could weaken forcing US rates up, desperate trying to suck money in - and the UK would have to compete but raising rates.

The fed is already ‘stuck between a rock a hard place’. Keep rates low and watch inflation rise, or put rates up causing a recession. You have to feel sorry for Ben Bernanke.

3) If the Middle East lose their faith in the US dollar, then they either start to demand more of them in return for their oil, or demand payment in Euros (or gold??) . This would further stoke the commodities boom, until paper money becomes worth less and less. With high inflation, what does the MPC have to do? That’s right, time to put the rates up.

4) The Labour policy to increase immigration, mainly from Eastern Europe has put more competition in the workforce, capping wage increases. This is a further source of deflation - in the form of wage deflation.

So you see, amongst other things, our borrowing rates are kept low is because of the trend of importing a larger proportion of our goods, and the willingness of the Chinese to accept few dollars and pounds than they rightly deserve. These low rates allow houses to boom. If you made money on property, don’t thank Gordon Brown, thank the Chinese.

We may well have changed to a new paradigm, but it’s the *change* event that causes deflation. Deflation is a relative thing – we need the price of DVDs and labourers to decrease year on year. The question is what happens when things settle down and this change stops happening? Inflation goes back to where should be – maybe 5%. With the real rate at 2% this means mortgage rates of around 7.5%.

Bearing this in mind, would a bull like to point to this year’s source of deflation? And what about next year. When you run out of ideas, rates will rise.

There is no defendable hypothesis that supports the continuation of the present valuation in property prices in the UK or other bubble markets. Falling productivity alone should indicate to even the most blinkered that not all is well in the state of Brown.

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How on earth you can delude yourself that the crash is well and truly on course amazes me - expecially on a day when the Halifax report a rise of 2% in the month. Anybody with an ounce of honesty in their bodies is able to see that there are a lot of for sale and sold boards around at the moment, and its not because prices are going down !

Halifax state that in Bristol houses are 4% cheaper than last year. So Bristol is on course :D

What does your area say?

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp

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TTRTR, Kingofnowhere, Imupnorth any others bulls lets reflect

You guys have been banging on about rate cuts for the last 9 months and myself and many others have been saying no your wrong the next move is up.

You know what im going to say "I Told You So" childish I know but like you guys and many other friends and family who have scoffed at my predictions i'm not going to let this go lightly i'm going to rub yours and theres noses in it.

Even I would have to admit its taken far longer than I anticipated but the crash is well and truly on course, lets just sit back and enjoy the ride. :D

Yep, you have also said there is going to be a crash, yet overall prices have moved up.

Bulls, i.e. established invesors, don't care. If IRs fall their cash flow increases. If IRs don't fall because of continued HPI then their net worth increases.

Where's the downside?

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Yep, you have also said there is going to be a crash, yet overall prices have moved up.

Bulls, i.e. established invesors, don't care. If IRs fall their cash flow increases. If IRs don't fall because of continued HPI then their net worth increases.

Where's the downside?

Sounds like a no brainer to me, but are interest rates the only determinant of house prices?

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Bulls, i.e. established invesors, don't care. If IRs fall their cash flow increases. If IRs don't fall because of continued HPI then their net worth increases.

Where's the downside?

Maybe.

But then a whole raft of STRs, like myself, are able to capitalise on the property bubble and rent large houses for far less than the opportunity costs of ownership and without any of the hassle and expense. I suspect that most will be happy to rent for ever so long as this happy situation continues.

Where's the downside?

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But then a whole raft of STRs, like myself, are able to capitalise on the property bubble and rent large houses for far less than the opportunity costs of ownership......

Nothing wrong with that. I remember Bob Beckman (who predicted the last crash & wrote 'Into The Upwave') made a point of saying the rent on his swish place was about 2% of its capital value - at a time when IRs were around 8 - 12%.

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I've always said that house prices won't fall unless rates go up from their current level. Australia put their rates up the other day and the position of their housing market is more advanced than ours, by about 6-9 months. The BoE really need to reverse the stupid quarter point cut and then tack on another 0.25%.

It has been interesting to see the gradual fading away of those in the media pushing a rate cut, only to be replaced by 'don't mention the chance of a rise when writing an article' brigade. Now we have a few talking about rises and I would hope that a few members of the BoE will start to mention future rate increases.

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Maybe.

But then a whole raft of STRs, like myself, are able to capitalise on the property bubble and rent large houses for far less than the opportunity costs of ownership and without any of the hassle and expense. I suspect that most will be happy to rent for ever so long as this happy situation continues.

Where's the downside?

yep - after failing to agree terms with a prize t**t of an amateur landlord i am now signig an agreement to pay £550/month rent for somewhere that is 'supposedly' worth £225k

didnt the hfx claim that prices were rising last year, then suddnly they announced falls in places of 10%? 2% rise my *rse

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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