Latest Bank Of England March Mortgage Data

[Surrey cash buyer]

Bank of England

Mortgage lending hits 2-1/2 year high

Mortgage lending jumped by the biggest amount in 2-1/2 years in March, providing further evidence the housing market has stepped up a gear and raising speculation the next move in interest rates will be up.

The Bank of England said on Thursday that mortgage lending rose by a bigger than expected 9.279 billion pounds, the biggest rise since November 2003 when the central bank had just embarked on a series of rate hikes.

Consumers' unsecured borrowing, meanwhile, rose by just 281 million pounds in March, the lowest since February 1994 and well below a forecast for a 1.3 billion pound rise.

Loans agreed for house purchase -- widely seen as a guide to house prices six months out -- rose to 116,000 in March from 114,000 in February.

Edited May 4, 2006 by Surrey cash buyer

[Prude]

Bank of England

This is the first time I have seen concrete figures for remortgaging. It appears that presently there are nearly as many loans for remortgage purposes as to purchase each month.

[ToilAndTrouble]

This is the first time I have seen concrete figures for remortgaging. It appears that presently there are nearly as many loans for remortgage purposes as to purchase each month.

KoN, do you consider this to be close to your forecast of 123,000 for March? Seems a little lower than you predicted.

T&T

[kingofnowhere]

KoN, do you consider this to be close to your forecast of 123,000 for March? Seems a little lower than you predicted.

T&T

Nope, I'm out more than I would like, but in my denfence this is the most difficult month to predict as Easter moves.

FWIW I don't know if it is because of the SA I used, because the BOE haven't released the NSA numbers, which is very very strange.

[Guest Guy_Montag]

Nope, I'm out more than I would like, but in my denfence this is the most difficult month to predict as Easter moves.

FWIW I don't know if it is because of the SA I used, because the BOE haven't released the NSA numbers, which is very very strange.

SA??

NSA??

[bubbleturbo]

SA??

NSA??

Seasonally Adjusted

Non . . . . . ..

[munimula]

Interesting to see unsecured borrowing at it's lowest since 1994

It would appear that this really is a last gasp by the UK housing market before it dies when the interest rate rises start.

The low unsecured borrowing would suggest that actually people are maxed out on debt but are still deciding to overstretch themselves to buy with super-sized mortgages because they believe that house prices won't crash. My sister and boyfriend are FTBs looking to buy - I can see how the majority think. They just want to get on with their lives and don't want to necessarily think about timing and making the right financial decisions.

The difference with this recent increase in house prices and mortgage loans is that it won't produce much stimulus to the economy as people are now so overstretched they don't have money left over to buy anything - this will lead to higher unemployment eventually as the retail sector should continue to deteriorate in the long term and as consumption is 2/3rds of UK gdp is't hard to see how we will avoid a recession eventually. I don't think manufacturing will fill the gap.

[kingofnowhere]

KoN, do you consider this to be close to your forecast of 123,000 for March? Seems a little lower than you predicted.

T&T

Hi T&T

The NSA approval numbers are out now 143K (I had pencilled in 144K), so it appears the SA caught me a tad, the BOE use a larger one than I was expecting.

FWIW 143K is the the 3rd highest ever monthly number (Since April 93 when they started monthly numbers)

Here are the ones higher or the same

31-May-02	15331-Mar-04	14931-Mar-06	143